Cincinnati @ St. Louis props

Alec Burleson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 10% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year. Alec Burleson has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

As it relates to his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Andre Pallante. In the past week's worth of games, Elly De La Cruz's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13% up to 22.2%.

Homers are generally less common at fields with deep fences, and Busch Stadium has the 5th-deepest among all stadiums. Hitting from the same side that Rhett Lowder throws from, Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage today. Masyn Winn's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 89.7-mph mark last year has fallen off to 87.7-mph. Masyn Winn's launch angle lately (1° over the past 7 days) is quite a bit worse than his 12.9° seasonal angle. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Masyn Winn's true offensive skill to be a .290, implying that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .026 deviation between that mark and his actual .316 wOBA.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, Jake Fraley will have an advantage in today's matchup. Jake Fraley's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, going from 14.2% on the season to 23.5% over the last two weeks. Jake Fraley has put up a .324 BABIP this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.

Brendan Donovan has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and will be challenged by the league's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game. In the past 7 days, Brendan Donovan's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal mark of 90.8 mph to 81 mph. Brendan Donovan's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (9.3°) is considerably worse than his 12.3° mark last year.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Noelvi Marte hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Noelvi Marte has been unlucky this year, notching a .234 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .290 — a .056 disparity. Noelvi Marte's maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to assess power) has been 111.5 mph this year, ranking in the 78th percentile.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 81°. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Fermin will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Fermin's quickness has gotten better this season. His 28.21 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.01 ft/sec now. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.303) provides evidence that Jose Fermin has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .244 actual wOBA.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Tyler Stephenson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Tyler Stephenson has posted a .335 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, Amed Rosario is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Amed Rosario hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Amed Rosario has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.2-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 87-mph average. Ranking in the 98th percentile, Amed Rosario has posted a .360 BABIP this year.

TJ Friedl is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. TJ Friedl will have the handedness advantage against Andre Pallante in today's game. TJ Friedl's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (9.3°) is a significant increase over his 5.8° figure last year. In terms of his batting average, TJ Friedl has experienced some negative variance this year. His .218 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .233.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Batting from the opposite that Rhett Lowder throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have an edge today. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

Ty France's batting average skill is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. In the last week's worth of games, Ty France's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.5-mph over the course of the season to 100.9-mph in recent games. Last season, Ty France had an average launch angle of 11.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 15.8°. Over the past 7 days, Ty France's 62.5% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.2%.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Paul Goldschmidt ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Paul Goldschmidt will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Spencer Steer is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Spencer Steer's launch angle in recent games (28.4° in the last 14 days) is a considerable increase over his 16.7° seasonal mark. By putting up a 1.86 K/BB rate this year, Spencer Steer has displayed good plate discipline, placing in the 83rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Jonathan India ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Compared to his seasonal average of 13.1°, Jonathan India has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 22° angle over the last 14 days. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.266) implies that Jonathan India has suffered from bad luck this year with his .244 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage in today's game.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In the past 7 days, Pedro Pages's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.2% up to 22.2%. Pedro Pages has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 90.4-mph.

Santiago Espinal's batting average ability is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. There has been a significant improvement in Santiago Espinal's launch angle from last year's 11.3° to 14.4° this season. Compared to his seasonal average of 14.4°, Santiago Espinal has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 20.7° mark in the past two weeks' worth of games.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 5th-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game. The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the 3rd-worst among all the teams today. Nolan Arenado will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Over the past 7 days, Nolan Arenado's 71.4% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.1%.