Boston @ Tampa Bay props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jose Siri pulls many of his flyballs (34.6% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Siri will hold that advantage in today's game. This season, Jose Siri has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 96.4 mph compared to last year's 94 mph mark. Jose Siri has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .273 rate is a good deal lower than his .321 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Junior Caminero is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today. Extreme flyball batters like Junior Caminero tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Junior Caminero has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9.9% seasonal rate to 15% in the last 7 days.

Triston Casas will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz in today's matchup. Triston Casas has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.6-mph to 103-mph in the last 7 days. Triston Casas has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season's 95.1-mph mark. Triston Casas has recorded a .328 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 79th percentile. Placing in the 81st percentile, Triston Casas has posted a .316 BABIP since the start of last season.

Dylan Carlson is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup. The 5th-shallowest right field fences in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. Dylan Carlson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Dylan Carlson's true offensive talent to be a .304, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .054 gap between that mark and his actual .250 wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Christopher Morel pulls a lot of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Christopher Morel will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Christopher Morel has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 11% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last week.

Rafael Devers projects as the 19th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand today. Based on Statcast metrics, Rafael Devers grades out in the 79th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .271. Posting a .367 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Rafael Devers finds himself in the 93rd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler O'Neill in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Tyler O'Neill is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Tyler O'Neill pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Over the last 14 days, Tyler O'Neill has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 17.3% to 28%. Tyler O'Neill has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last year's 92.8-mph mark.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Ben Rortvedt will have an advantage in today's matchup. Ben Rortvedt has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Ben Rortvedt will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Ben Rortvedt has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 28.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 9.2°. Grading out in the 79th percentile, Ben Rortvedt has put up a .319 BABIP this year.

Connor Wong's BABIP talent is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Connor Wong is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. The 4th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. Connor Wong has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, improving his 5.9% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the last two weeks' worth of games. In the last two weeks, Connor Wong's 57.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 39.5%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Masataka Yoshida is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Masataka Yoshida will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today's game. Masataka Yoshida's launch angle this season (10°) is quite a bit better than his 3.9° angle last year. Masataka Yoshida's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (31.9° over the past 14 days) is a significant increase over his 12° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 11th-best batter in the majors as it relates to his batting average talent. Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today's game. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 5th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Yandy Diaz usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Nick Pivetta. Yandy Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Brandon Lowe will hold that advantage today. Brandon Lowe's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (17.9°) is considerably higher than his 13.9° figure last year.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an edge today. Wilyer Abreu has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 94.1-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games. Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Wilyer Abreu has notched a .342 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year. In notching a .334 BABIP this year, Wilyer Abreu grades out in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. The 4th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums are found in Tropicana Field.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. The 5th-shallowest right field fences in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta in today's matchup. Jonathan Aranda will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.8% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the last week, Jose Caballero's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.3% up to 11.1%. Jose Caballero has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year's 87.7-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 13th-best batter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP ability. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage against Shane Baz in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jarren Duran has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 90.9-mph figure.

The 5th-shallowest right field fences in MLB are found in Tropicana Field. Logan Driscoll will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Logan Driscoll will hold that advantage in today's game.

The 4th-shallowest left field dimensions among all stadiums are found in Tropicana Field. There has been a significant improvement in Trevor Story's launch angle from last season's 15.2° to 19° this year. In the past 7 days, Trevor Story's 69.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 47.6%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.283) suggests that Trevor Story has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his .259 actual wOBA.