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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 16, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.14 |
+150 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -139
|
|
4.66 |
-170
|
u8.0 -105 
|
-1.5 +130
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- White Sox are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Cleveland
- Over is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Messicks last 4 starts with 4 days of rest.
- Guardians are 7-1 in Messicks last 8 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Nathaniel Lowe o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+140)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.71 |
+140
|
o7.5 -130 
|
+1.5 -157
|
|
4.82 |
-155
|
u8.5 -124 
|
-1.5 +145
|
San Francisco
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 overall.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Giants last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Giants are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
St. Louis
- Over is 6-0 in Liberatores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+156)
o0.5+156
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.75 |
-140
|
o8.0 -108
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.19 |
+128
|
u8.5 -125 
|
+1.5 -135
|
NY Yankees
- Yankees are 7-0 in Rodons last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Yankees are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Rodons last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Minnesota
- Under is 5-0 in Matthews' last 5 starts as a home favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Twins last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Twins are 4-0 in Matthews' last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
Top Projection
Aaron Judge o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
o0.5+161
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.87 |
+105 
|
o8.5 -103
|
+1.5 -199
|
|
4.74 |
-115
|
u8.5 -114
|
-1.5 +170
|
Detroit
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Tigers are 6-0 in Monteros last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Toronto
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Blue Jays last 4 games as a home underdog.
Top Projection
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+180
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.36 |
+165
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
4.81 |
-184
|
u8.5 -130
|
-1.5 +125
|
Athletics
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-1 in last 8 games as a road underdog.
- are 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
- Over is 4-1 in last 5 games as a favorite.
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts vs. American League West.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Rays are 5-0 in Martinezs last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Rays last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+100)
o1.5+100
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.74 |
-190
|
o8.5 -110 
|
-1.5 -113
|
|
4.13 |
+180
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 +110
|
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 5-0 in Dodgers last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Dodgers are 6-1 in Snells last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Cincinnati
- Reds are 6-0 in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+270
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
-135
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +126
|
|
4.56 |
+120
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -135
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 6-1 in their last 7 during game 2 of a series.
Pittsburgh
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Jones' last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
o1.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.91 |
-177
|
o8.5 -110
|
-1.5 +100
|
|
4.32 |
+170
|
u8.5 -105
|
+1.5 -105
|
Philadelphia
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Phillies are 9-1 in Wheelers last 10 starts vs. National League East.
Washington
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
- Nationals are 6-0 in Cavallis last 6 home starts.
- Nationals are 4-0 in Cavallis last 4 starts as a home favorite.
Top Projection
CJ Abrams o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+234
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.48 |
+123
|
o8.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.38 |
-138
|
u9.0 -120
|
-1.5 +150
|
Baltimore
- Over is 8-0 in Bassitts last 8 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-0 in Bassitts last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 9-0 in Bassitts last 9 road starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Bassitts last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
NY Mets
- Under is 2-0-2 in Mets last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Mets last 6 interleague home games.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.12 |
+120
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.74 |
-140
|
u8.5 -132
|
-1.5 +155
|
Atlanta
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 vs. National League Central.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 6-0 in Imanagas last 6 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Cubs are 4-0 in Imanagas last 4 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Top Projection
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
o1.5+145
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+100
|
o7.5 -124
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
4.02 |
-110
|
u8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +150
|
Boston
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Bennetts last 5 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 road games.
- Red Sox are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 5-0-1 in Rangers last 6 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Rangers last 8 home games.
Top Projection
Trevor Story o0.5 Total RBIs (+220)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.51 |
+125
|
o8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.79 |
-140
|
u9.0 -115
|
-1.5 +152
|
Kansas City
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Royals last 8 on grass.
- Royals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League West.
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 games as an underdog.
Houston
- Under is 6-0 in Astros last 6 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Astros last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Javiers last 9 starts during game 2 of a series.
Top Projection
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.26 |
-165
|
o11.0 -125
|
-1.5 -108
|
|
5.55 |
+145
|
u11.5 -115
|
+1.5 -105
|
San Diego
- Padres are 8-0 in their last 8 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 overall.
- Over is 5-0 in Padres last 5 road games.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 games as a favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 overall.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Rockies last 5 on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.48 |
-130
|
o8.0 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.13 |
+120
|
u8.5 -120
|
+1.5 -145
|
Seattle
- Over is 8-0 in Mariners last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Kirbys last 5 road starts.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 during game 3 of a series.
LA Angels
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Kikuchis last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 home games.
Top Projection
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
o0.5+205
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.69 |
+117
|
o8.5 -140
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
5.20 |
-130
|
u9.5 -135
|
-1.5 +160
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 3 of a series.
- Marlins are 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
Arizona
- Over is 5-0-2 in Kellys last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 6-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 during game 3 of a series.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+199
CHW
@
CLE
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:10 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jo Adell o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-150)
Projection 2.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jo Adell in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Jo Adell is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Progressive Field ranks as the #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Progressive Field has the 2nd-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate today at 80%.
SF
@
STL
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:15 PM ET
Total RBIs
TH
Turner Hill o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Turner Hill is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Turner Hill hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Over the last week, Turner Hill's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.3-mph over the course of the season to 98-mph in recent games.
Total RBIs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+156)
Projection 0.76
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Jordan Walker ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jordan Walker is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Among all major league parks, Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 90°.. Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.
NYY
@
MIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 1:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Josh Bell o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Bell in the 85th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Josh Bell is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Josh Bell will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Josh Bell has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.8% seasonal rate to 20% over the past week.. Josh Bell has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 101.6-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.1-mph.
Total RBIs
Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+226)
Projection 0.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Carlos Rodon throws from, Ryan Jeffers will have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage today.. Ryan Jeffers has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph to 92.2-mph over the last 14 days.. Ryan Jeffers's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 16.8% on the season to 37.5% in the past 7 days.
DET
@
TOR
Wed, Sep 16 • 3:07 PM ET
Total RBIs
Dillon Dingler o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dillon Dingler in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Dillon Dingler is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.. Rogers Centre ranks as the #5 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Dillon Dingler's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 16% to 20.2%.
Total Bases
Riley Greene o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Riley Greene is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #5 stadium in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.. The 10th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all major league stadiums are found in Rogers Centre.. Riley Greene will hold the platoon advantage against Max Scherzer today.
ATH
@
TB
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+118)
Projection 2.16
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Shea Langeliers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Shea Langeliers is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Tropicana Field projects as the #1 stadium in the league for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Total Bases
Jorge Mateo u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Mateo in the 18th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Jorge Mateo is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.. The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Jorge Mateo hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Jorge Mateo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.
LAD
@
CIN
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Elly De La Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.58
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 5th-best hitter in Major League Baseball when assessing his BABIP talent.. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Great American Ball Park as the 4th-best venue in baseball for RHB home runs.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures on the slate at 88°.. Elly De La Cruz has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Enrique Hernandez u1.5 Total Bases (-230)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Enrique Hernandez in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Enrique Hernandez is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.. Out of all the teams today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Cincinnati Reds.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Enrique Hernandez today.. Enrique Hernandez's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, falling from 18.9% to 4.5%.
MIL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+215)
Projection 0.72
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 18th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 18th-best home run hitter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The #3 field in Major League Baseball for boosting base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this game to reach the 3rd-highest level of all games on the slate today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Oneil Cruz will hold the platoon advantage over Logan Henderson in today's game.
PHI
@
WAS
Wed, Sep 16 • 6:45 PM ET
Total RBIs
Brady House o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 95th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Brady House is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Brady House has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Brady House will hold that advantage in today's game.
Total Bases
CJ Abrams o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 85th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. CJ Abrams is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the 4th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 82°.. Because of Zack Wheeler's large platoon split, CJ Abrams will have a colossal advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
BAL
@
NYM
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+132)
Projection 2.02
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Bassitt in today's matchup... and moreover, Bassitt has a large platoon split.. Juan Soto hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Jackson Holliday o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jackson Holliday's BABIP skill is projected in the 87th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Considering Robert Stock's large platoon split, Jackson Holliday will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Jackson Holliday will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.. Jackson Holliday hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the game's shallowest CF fences today.
ATL
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 16 • 7:40 PM ET
Moneyline
ATL (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
At 45%, give me the Atlanta Braves to defeat the Chicago Cubs, as I think they should be trading closer to 49% in this matchup. JR Ritchie is on the mound for the Braves, but I don't expect him to go deep into the game. Fortunately, Atlanta has the relievers necessary to piece together a strong pitching performance against the left-handed bats in the Cubs' lineup. Left-handed reliever Dylan Lee hasn't pitched yet in this series, Raisel Iglesias has always been tough on left-handed hitters because of his changeup, and the Braves have multiple other lefties in the bullpen in Ray Kerr and Dylan Dodd. This breakdown is about neutralizing the power of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Michael Busch, if that wasn't obvious already. The Cubs' bullpen, on the other hand, ranks last in fWAR over the last 30 days.
Total RBIs
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+179)
Projection 0.59
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 20th-best batter in the majors.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest LF fences in Major League Baseball.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's game.. Over the past 7 days, Seiya Suzuki's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.7% up to 28.6%.
BOS
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford u1.5 Total Bases (-200)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Wyatt Langford is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 park in baseball for suppressing offensive stats to RHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Globe Life Field.. The 6th-deepest centerfield fences among all major league stadiums are found in Globe Life Field.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. The Boston Red Sox outfield defense grades out as the 5th-best among every team playing today.
Total RBIs
Jahmai Jones o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
Projection 0.36
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jahmai Jones in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jahmai Jones is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.. In the majors, Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height.. Jahmai Jones will have the handedness advantage against MacKenzie Gore today.. Sporting a .369 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Jahmai Jones grades out in the 96th percentile for offensive skills.
KC
@
HOU
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Isaac Collins o0.5 Total RBIs (+290)
Projection 0.35
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Dingers are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest in Major League Baseball.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Despite posting a .299 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Isaac Collins has been unlucky given the .017 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .316.
Total RBIs
Vinnie Pasquantino o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Vinnie Pasquantino is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.. Vinnie Pasquantino will hold the platoon advantage over Cristian Javier in today's game.. Out of all the teams today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Vinnie Pasquantino has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 8.6% seasonal rate to 21.4% over the last week.. Vinnie Pasquantino's launch angle this season (20.1°) is a considerable increase over his 16.2° mark last season.
SD
@
COL
Wed, Sep 16 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Ezequiel Tovar is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.. Ezequiel Tovar's average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 89.5-mph figure last year has decreased to 87.2-mph.. Ezequiel Tovar's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.2-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 74.2-mph in the past week.. Placing in the 1st percentile, Ezequiel Tovar has posted a .248 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.. Checking in at the 4th percentile, Ezequiel Tovar sports a .200 batting average this year.
Total Hits
Adael Amador u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.91
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adael Amador in the 7th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Adael Amador is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in today's game.. Adael Amador has been cold recently, posting a 84.1-mph average exit velocity in the last two weeks.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.229) suggests that Adael Amador has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .298 actual wOBA.. Adael Amador ranks in the 17th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (37.5% rate since the start of last season).
SEA
@
LAA
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:38 PM ET
Moneyline
LAA (+118)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Yusei Kikuchi’s season numbers aren’t pretty, but his recent form tells a different story, allowing just three earned runs over his last 17 innings. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so I’m happy to take the plus money with the hotter starter. Kikuchi also owns a 1.32 ERA across six career starts against Seattle.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 7th-best hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Among all parks, Angel Stadium has the lowest average fence height.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the worst among all the teams in action today.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Mike Trout will hold that advantage in today's game.
MIA
@
AZ
Wed, Sep 16 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run ability, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Chase Field projects as the #3 park in the league for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
Total Bases
Otto Lopez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 10th-best hitter in baseball when estimating his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #3 park in the league for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest elevation in the league. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather of the day, as it relates to temperature and humidity.
BOS
@
TEX
Thu, Sep 17 • 8:05 PM ET
Moneyline
BOS (-119)
Trevor Knapp
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has become somewhat of an ageless wonder for the Red Sox, and the veteran right-hander has limited Texas hitters to a lifetime .505 OPS. With Gray on the hill, Boston is playable to -135.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 1:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Aaron Judge o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Aaron Judge projects as the best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the 7th-best ballpark in the league for RHB home runs.. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Drew Rasmussen who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Total RBIs
Austin Wells o0.5 Total RBIs (+305)
Projection 0.41
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium ranks as the #7 ballpark in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height among all parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball batters like Austin Wells generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.. The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among every team on the slate today.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
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