Toronto @ Houston Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Rodgers in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Extreme flyball bats like Brendan Rodgers tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Bassitt. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Brendan Rodgers will hold that advantage in today's matchup. The standard deviation of Brendan Rodgers's launch angle since the start of last season (25.4°) is in the 93rd percentile. A low deviation like this tends to lead to a higher rate of hits on balls in play. Placing in the 85th percentile, Brendan Rodgers sports a .323 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Minute Maid Park as the 7th-worst venue in the game for righty batting average. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which generally leads to less offense. Ronel Blanco will hold the platoon advantage over Bo Bichette in today's game. Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.3%) and will be challenged by the league's 9th-deepest RF fences in today's game. Bo Bichette will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeremy Pena in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jeremy Pena is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Extreme groundball hitters like Jeremy Pena tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Bassitt. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Jeremy Pena will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Extreme flyball batters like Yainer Diaz tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Bassitt. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Yainer Diaz has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .314 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333. Yainer Diaz has put up a .288 batting average since the start of last season, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ernie Clement in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Ernie Clement pulls many of his flyballs (34% — 80th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today. Ernie Clement has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 87.8-mph average to last season's 85.3-mph mark. Ernie Clement's launch angle this season (21.9°) is considerably higher than his 16.2° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent. George Springer is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today's game. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. George Springer has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, upping his 9.3% rate last year to 18.2% this season. George Springer has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 93.2-mph average.

When estimating his batting average skill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected as the best hitter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.4-mph average to last year's 95-mph figure. In terms of his batting average, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .319 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .337. Since the start of last season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s 13.7% Barrel%, a reliable stat for measuring power, places him in the 91st percentile among his peers.

Andres Gimenez's batting average ability is projected to be in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Andres Gimenez is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Andres Gimenez will have an advantage in today's game. Extreme flyball bats like Andres Gimenez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Ronel Blanco.

Yordan Alvarez projects as the 2nd-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Yordan Alvarez will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Bassitt today... and the cherry on top, Bassitt has a large platoon split. Yordan Alvarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Yordan Alvarez's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (22.4°) is considerably better than his 12.5° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alan Roden in the 78th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for home runs. Alan Roden will hold the platoon advantage against Ronel Blanco in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Alan Roden are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ronel Blanco.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Jose Altuve is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Jose Altuve will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats. Jose Altuve has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph mark.

Will Wagner's batting average skill is projected to be in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hitting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Will Wagner will have an edge in today's matchup. Hitters such as Will Wagner with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ronel Blanco who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. By putting up a .274 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Will Wagner is positioned in the 89th percentile. Will Wagner's 89.9-mph average exit velocity ranks among the best in the league since the start of last season: 75th percentile.

Alejandro Kirk's batting average ability is projected to be in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today. Alejandro Kirk has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .291 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .308 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Alejandro Kirk's maximum exit velocity (an advanced standard to measure power) has been 112.9 mph since the start of last season, grading out in the 75th percentile. Alejandro Kirk has exhibited favorable plate discipline since the start of last season, grading out in the 92nd percentile with a 1.49 K/BB rate.

Christian Walker is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks are found in Minute Maid Park. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today. Despite posting a .237 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christian Walker has had some very poor luck given the .092 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329. Christian Walker's 12.9% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) ranks in the 89th percentile since the start of last season.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Jake Meyers will hold that advantage in today's game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.323) may lead us to conclude that Jake Meyers has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .287 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathan Lukes in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average talent. Batting from the opposite that Ronel Blanco throws from, Nathan Lukes will have the upper hand today. Nathan Lukes has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Bats such as Nathan Lukes with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ronel Blanco who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Anthony Santander is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Compared to last season, Anthony Santander has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 38.2% to 52.2% this season. Despite posting a .254 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Anthony Santander has had bad variance on his side given the .076 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330. Anthony Santander has posted a .336 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 78th percentile.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.8% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Isaac Paredes will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. In comparison to his 85-mph average last year, Isaac Paredes's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 87 mph. Isaac Paredes has displayed impressive plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 95th percentile with a 1.38 K/BB rate.

Mauricio Dubon has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Addison Barger has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.