Final Oct 5
GS 91 -6.0 o221.5
LAC 90 6.0 u221.5
Los Angeles 8th WESTERN CONFERENCE47-35
Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36

Los Angeles @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Kyle Lowry Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Lowry
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.6
Best Odds
Over
-110

With respect to 3-pointers, the Miami Heat's outstanding 13.4 converted threes per game settles in as the 10th-highest in the league over the last 5 games. Since the start of last season when they are on the road, opposing squads have shot 46.5% on field goal attempts (6th-lowest in the league) against the Lakers, making this a tough matchup. Since the start of last season when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 6.4 three attempts per game (30th-highest in the league) vs. the Lakers, making this a favorable matchup. Among all players in the league, Kyle Lowry rates in the 94th percentile for foul-shot ability while at home with a a superb 88.8% rate since the start of last season. Kyle Lowry ought to see an increase in efficiency in all facets of the game due to holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Kyle Lowry

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.6
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.6

With respect to 3-pointers, the Miami Heat's outstanding 13.4 converted threes per game settles in as the 10th-highest in the league over the last 5 games. Since the start of last season when they are on the road, opposing squads have shot 46.5% on field goal attempts (6th-lowest in the league) against the Lakers, making this a tough matchup. Since the start of last season when they are the visiting team, the opposition's starting PGs have tallied 6.4 three attempts per game (30th-highest in the league) vs. the Lakers, making this a favorable matchup. Among all players in the league, Kyle Lowry rates in the 94th percentile for foul-shot ability while at home with a a superb 88.8% rate since the start of last season. Kyle Lowry ought to see an increase in efficiency in all facets of the game due to holding the home court advantage in this contest.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
24.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.4
Best Odds
Under
-110

The Miami Heat have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have grabbed 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Lakers (maintaining possessions that can lead to added chances for offense). The matchup against the Lakers is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SGs have attempted just 2.3 free throws per game since the start of last season (13th-least in the NBA).

Tyler Herro

Prop: 24.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.4
Prop:
24.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.4

The Miami Heat have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have grabbed 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Lakers (maintaining possessions that can lead to added chances for offense). The matchup against the Lakers is a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting SGs have attempted just 2.3 free throws per game since the start of last season (13th-least in the NBA).

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
22.4
Best Odds
Over
+104

Jimmy Butler has averaged 23.6 points per game playing at home since the start of last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric. Out of all players in the league, Jimmy Butler ranks in the 90th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 34.5 minutes per game since the start of last season. With respect to 3-pointers, the Miami Heat's outstanding 13.4 converted threes per game settles in as the 10th-highest in the league over the last 5 games. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler registers in the 99th percentile for drawing fouls, putting up a whopping 8.6 free throw attempts per game while playing at home since the start of last season. Jimmy Butler will have the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium tends to improve player production across the board.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 22.4
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
22.4

Jimmy Butler has averaged 23.6 points per game playing at home since the start of last season, placing him in the 93rd percentile -- among the best in the NBA by this metric. Out of all players in the league, Jimmy Butler ranks in the 90th percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 34.5 minutes per game since the start of last season. With respect to 3-pointers, the Miami Heat's outstanding 13.4 converted threes per game settles in as the 10th-highest in the league over the last 5 games. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler registers in the 99th percentile for drawing fouls, putting up a whopping 8.6 free throw attempts per game while playing at home since the start of last season. Jimmy Butler will have the home court advantage in this game. Playing in your home stadium tends to improve player production across the board.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
17
Best Odds
Under
-105

Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo places in the 5th percentile for 3-point proficiency while at home with a a lackluster 6.7% rate since the start of last season. Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.2 3-pointers per game since the start of last season, putting him in the 8th percentile among all players in the NBA. Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo rates in the 88th percentile for personal fouls, compiling an enormous 2.8 fouls per game while at home since the start of last season. The Miami Heat have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have grabbed 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Lakers (maintaining possessions that can lead to added chances for offense).

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17

Among all players in the league, Bam Adebayo places in the 5th percentile for 3-point proficiency while at home with a a lackluster 6.7% rate since the start of last season. Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.2 3-pointers per game since the start of last season, putting him in the 8th percentile among all players in the NBA. Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo rates in the 88th percentile for personal fouls, compiling an enormous 2.8 fouls per game while at home since the start of last season. The Miami Heat have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists). Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, opposing squads have grabbed 11.2 offensive rebounds per game (4th-most in the league) vs. the Lakers (maintaining possessions that can lead to added chances for offense).

Anthony Davis Points Scored Props • L.A. Lakers

A. Davis
power forward PF • L.A. Lakers
Prop
25.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Under
-110

Among all players in the NBA, Anthony Davis comes in at the 16th percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a a subpar 24.3% rate since the start of last season. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a challenging one; they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting Cs since the start of last season (12.1). Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA while playing at home with a mere 7.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a mere 2.3 foul shots per game since the start of last season when the Miami Heat are the visiting squad (14th-least in the NBA). Anthony Davis will likely suffer a drop-off in productivity across the board due to being on the road in this matchup.

Anthony Davis

Prop: 25.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.8
Prop:
25.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.8

Among all players in the NBA, Anthony Davis comes in at the 16th percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a a subpar 24.3% rate since the start of last season. The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a challenging one; they have given up the 13th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting Cs since the start of last season (12.1). Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA while playing at home with a mere 7.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. The matchup vs. Miami is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a mere 2.3 foul shots per game since the start of last season when the Miami Heat are the visiting squad (14th-least in the NBA). Anthony Davis will likely suffer a drop-off in productivity across the board due to being on the road in this matchup.

LeBron James Points Scored Props • L.A. Lakers

L. James
small forward SF • L.A. Lakers
Prop
23.5
Points Scored
Projection
21.9
Best Odds
Under
-122

This matchup is a strong one for shots from the field; the other team has shot for the 10th-highest field goal rate in the league since the start of last season (47.9%). Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have averaged 29.4% on 3-pointers (12th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, resulting in a difficult matchup. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA while playing at home with a mere 7.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. LeBron James is expected to suffer a reduction in productivity for all stats in light of playing away from hom in this matchup.

LeBron James

Prop: 23.5 Points Scored
Projection: 21.9
Prop:
23.5 Points Scored
Projection:
21.9

This matchup is a strong one for shots from the field; the other team has shot for the 10th-highest field goal rate in the league since the start of last season (47.9%). Since the start of last season when they are playing at home, opposing starting PFs have averaged 29.4% on 3-pointers (12th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Heat, resulting in a difficult matchup. Offensive rebounds preserve possession and produce extra opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Lakers grade out 2ndworst in in the NBA while playing at home with a mere 7.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. LeBron James is expected to suffer a reduction in productivity for all stats in light of playing away from hom in this matchup.

Austin Reaves Points Scored Props • L.A. Lakers

A. Reaves
point guard PG • L.A. Lakers
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.8
Best Odds
Over
-128
Prop
13.5 Points Scored
Projection
14.8
Best Odds
Over
-128
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the league, Austin Reaves comes in at the 91st percentile for 3-point ability without the home court advantage with a a very good 40.5% rate since the start of last season. Austin Reaves has tallied 30.0 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the league: 78th percentile. With respect to scoring, the Los Angeles Lakers's excellent 115.7 points per game while playing away from home settles in as the 4th-strongest in the league since the start of last season. Since the start of last season when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 6.8 three attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) vs. the Heat, making this a favorable matchup. Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has grabbed 9.3 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (minimizing possessions that could otherwise result in additional chances for offense).

Austin Reaves

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.8
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.8

Out of all players in the league, Austin Reaves comes in at the 91st percentile for 3-point ability without the home court advantage with a a very good 40.5% rate since the start of last season. Austin Reaves has tallied 30.0 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the league: 78th percentile. With respect to scoring, the Los Angeles Lakers's excellent 115.7 points per game while playing away from home settles in as the 4th-strongest in the league since the start of last season. Since the start of last season when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged 6.8 three attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) vs. the Heat, making this a favorable matchup. Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has grabbed 9.3 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (minimizing possessions that could otherwise result in additional chances for offense).

D'Angelo Russell Points Scored Props • L.A. Lakers

D. Russell
point guard PG • L.A. Lakers
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.1
Best Odds
Over
-107

D'Angelo Russell has made 2.5 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among all players in the league. D'Angelo Russell has averaged 31.6 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the league: 83rd percentile. With respect to scoring, the Los Angeles Lakers's excellent 115.7 points per game while playing away from home settles in as the 4th-strongest in the league since the start of last season. Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has grabbed 9.3 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (minimizing possessions that could otherwise result in additional chances for offense). D'Angelo Russell has converted 97.1% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 7.9% more than he's converted over the course of the season away from his home court.

D'Angelo Russell

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.1
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.1

D'Angelo Russell has made 2.5 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among all players in the league. D'Angelo Russell has averaged 31.6 minutes per game since the start of last season, ranking among the most used players in the league: 83rd percentile. With respect to scoring, the Los Angeles Lakers's excellent 115.7 points per game while playing away from home settles in as the 4th-strongest in the league since the start of last season. Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, their opposition has grabbed 9.3 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (minimizing possessions that could otherwise result in additional chances for offense). D'Angelo Russell has converted 97.1% of his free throws over the last 5 games on the road, 7.9% more than he's converted over the course of the season away from his home court.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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