Oklahoma City 1st WESTERN CONFERENCE57-25
Denver 2nd WESTERN CONFERENCE57-25
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Oklahoma City @ Denver props

Ball Arena

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Michael Porter Jr. Points Scored Props • Denver

M. Porter Jr.
power forward PF • Denver
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.3
Best Odds
Over
-112

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 7.2 shots from downtown per game this year, putting him in the 94th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 30.6 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 78th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to see a rise in efficiency for all stats due to enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Michael Porter Jr.

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.3
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.3

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 7.2 shots from downtown per game this year, putting him in the 94th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 30.6 minutes per game while on his home court this year, ranking in the 78th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to see a rise in efficiency for all stats due to enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

S. Gilgeous-Alexander
point guard PG • Oklahoma City
Prop
31.5
Points Scored
Projection
29.3
Best Odds
Under
-110

This year, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 5.0 3-point attempts per game (10th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, designating this as a challenging matchup. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league in their home stadium this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have grabbed 13.2 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Denver Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in added chances for offense). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely suffer a reduction in output across the board on account of playing on the visting team in this game.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Prop: 31.5 Points Scored
Projection: 29.3
Prop:
31.5 Points Scored
Projection:
29.3

This year, the other team's starting SGs have averaged 5.0 3-point attempts per game (10th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, designating this as a challenging matchup. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league in their home stadium this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have grabbed 13.2 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Denver Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in added chances for offense). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will likely suffer a reduction in output across the board on account of playing on the visting team in this game.

Luguentz Dort Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

L. Dort
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
10
Best Odds
Under
-127

Luguentz Dort has accumulated 3.1 personal fouls per game while playing on the road this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled. This year when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 24.4% on threes (14th-worst in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, resulting in a hard matchup. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league in their home stadium this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have grabbed 13.2 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Denver Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in added chances for offense).

Luguentz Dort

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10

Luguentz Dort has accumulated 3.1 personal fouls per game while playing on the road this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile -- among the NBA's most-whistled. This year when they are on the road, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged 24.4% on threes (14th-worst in the league) vs. the Denver Nuggets, resulting in a hard matchup. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league in their home stadium this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have grabbed 13.2 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Denver Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in added chances for offense).

Julian Strawther Points Scored Props • Denver

J. Strawther
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.7
Best Odds
Under
-125
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.7
Best Odds
Under
-125
Projection Rating

Julian Strawther has tallied 13.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court far less than most players in the league: 20th percentile. The Nuggets have been the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to three-point attempts. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league while at home this year. This year, opposing clubs have captured 14.0 offensive boards per game (highest in the league) against the Oklahoma City Thunder (lengthening possessions that can produce further opportunities for offense). This matchup may be a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing squads have attempted a monstrous 26.9 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-most in the league).

Julian Strawther

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.7
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.7

Julian Strawther has tallied 13.2 minutes per game this year, seeing the court far less than most players in the league: 20th percentile. The Nuggets have been the 6th-least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to three-point attempts. The Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league while at home this year. This year, opposing clubs have captured 14.0 offensive boards per game (highest in the league) against the Oklahoma City Thunder (lengthening possessions that can produce further opportunities for offense). This matchup may be a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing squads have attempted a monstrous 26.9 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-most in the league).

Isaiah Joe Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

I. Joe
point guard PG • Oklahoma City
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.5
Best Odds
Over
-115
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.5
Best Odds
Over
-115
Projection Rating

Out of all players in the league, Isaiah Joe ranks in the 90th percentile for three-point shots sunk, logging 2.5 per game this year. Isaiah Joe has tallied 1.1 personal fouls per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 19th percentile -- among the league's lowest-fouling. The Thunder check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one for threes; their opposition has averaged the 5th-least three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (11.2). The 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Isaiah Joe

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.5
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.5

Out of all players in the league, Isaiah Joe ranks in the 90th percentile for three-point shots sunk, logging 2.5 per game this year. Isaiah Joe has tallied 1.1 personal fouls per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 19th percentile -- among the league's lowest-fouling. The Thunder check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games. The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a difficult one for threes; their opposition has averaged the 5th-least three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (11.2). The 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Jalen Williams Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

J. Williams
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.5
Best Odds
Over
-104

Out of all players in the NBA, Jalen Williams ranks in the 82nd percentile, registering an enormous 16.4 points per game without the home court advantage this year. Jalen Williams has made 52.0% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games, 14.3% more than he's made from three in all games this season. Jalen Williams has played 32.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 84th percentile. The Thunder check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games. The 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Jalen Williams

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.5
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.5

Out of all players in the NBA, Jalen Williams ranks in the 82nd percentile, registering an enormous 16.4 points per game without the home court advantage this year. Jalen Williams has made 52.0% of his 3-pointers over the last 5 games, 14.3% more than he's made from three in all games this season. Jalen Williams has played 32.0 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 84th percentile. The Thunder check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games. The 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Justin Holiday Points Scored Props • Denver

J. Holiday
small forward SF • Denver
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.1
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Justin Holiday has sunk an impressive 47.8% of his 3-point attempts this season, a significant increase from his 26.9 mark last season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Justin Holiday will possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home usually improves player production across the board.

Justin Holiday

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.1
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.1

Justin Holiday has sunk an impressive 47.8% of his 3-point attempts this season, a significant increase from his 26.9 mark last season. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Justin Holiday will possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home usually improves player production across the board.

Chet Holmgren Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

C. Holmgren
center C • Oklahoma City
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.2
Best Odds
Under
-108

Chet Holmgren has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 79th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league in their home stadium this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have grabbed 13.2 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Denver Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in added chances for offense). The matchup vs. Denver may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a lowly 2.1 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Nuggets are at home (11th-least in the league).

Chet Holmgren

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.2
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.2

Chet Holmgren has tallied 2.5 personal fouls per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking in the 79th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling. The Denver Nuggets have played at the 4th-slowest pace in the league in their home stadium this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Oklahoma City Thunder. Offensive rebounds maintain possession and produce added chances for scoring and assists, but the Thunder grade out 2ndworst in in the league with a mere 8.5 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 5 games, opposing squads have grabbed 13.2 offensive boards per game (5th-most in the league) against the Denver Nuggets (continuing possessions that can result in added chances for offense). The matchup vs. Denver may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting Cs have attempted a lowly 2.1 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Nuggets are at home (11th-least in the league).

Reggie Jackson Points Scored Props • Denver

R. Jackson
point guard PG • Denver
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.9
Best Odds
Over
-105
Prop
9.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.9
Best Odds
Over
-105
Projection Rating

Reggie Jackson has made 6.9 baskets per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year. Reggie Jackson has successfully made 51.9% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games, 11.7% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year. This matchup is a difficult one for scoring; when the Thunder are the visiting squad, opposing teams have totaled the least shots made from the field per game in the league against them this year (38.6). The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Reggie Jackson

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.9
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.9

Reggie Jackson has made 6.9 baskets per game over the last 10 games, 1.5 more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year. Reggie Jackson has successfully made 51.9% of his three-point shots over the last 10 games, 11.7% higher than he's sunk over the course of the year. This matchup is a difficult one for scoring; when the Thunder are the visiting squad, opposing teams have totaled the least shots made from the field per game in the league against them this year (38.6). The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Aaron Gordon Points Scored Props • Denver

A. Gordon
power forward PF • Denver
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.8
Best Odds
Over
+100

Aaron Gordon has played 32.0 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 84th percentile. Aaron Gordon has accumulated 1.2 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 25th percentile -- among the league's lowest-fouling. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 4.7 foul shots per game (23rd-most in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

Aaron Gordon

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.8
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.8

Aaron Gordon has played 32.0 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 84th percentile. Aaron Gordon has accumulated 1.2 personal fouls per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 25th percentile -- among the league's lowest-fouling. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 4.7 foul shots per game (23rd-most in the NBA) against the Oklahoma City Thunder, succeeding in their efforts to get to the free-throw line.

Nikola Jokic Points Scored Props • Denver

N. Jokic
center C • Denver
Prop
27.5
Points Scored
Projection
28
Best Odds
Over
-115

In contrast to last year's 16.1 clip, Nikola Jokic's shots have spiked this year to 19.5 per game. Among all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic places in the 87th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 32.9 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder is a positive one; they have given up the 27th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting Cs over the last 10 games (17.6). The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Nikola Jokic

Prop: 27.5 Points Scored
Projection: 28
Prop:
27.5 Points Scored
Projection:
28

In contrast to last year's 16.1 clip, Nikola Jokic's shots have spiked this year to 19.5 per game. Among all players in the NBA, Nikola Jokic places in the 87th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 32.9 minutes per game this year. The matchup vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder is a positive one; they have given up the 27th-most points per game in the league to the opposition's starting Cs over the last 10 games (17.6). The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Josh Giddey Points Scored Props • Oklahoma City

J. Giddey
shooting guard SG • Oklahoma City
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.8
Best Odds
Over
-120

Josh Giddey has made 1.8 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's converted over the course of the season. The Thunder check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games. The 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder. The matchup against Denver may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 5.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Nuggets are at home (22nd-most in the NBA).

Josh Giddey

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.8
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.8

Josh Giddey has made 1.8 threes per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's converted over the course of the season. The Thunder check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games. The 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Oklahoma City Thunder. The matchup against Denver may be a favorable one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 5.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Nuggets are at home (22nd-most in the NBA).

Jamal Murray Points Scored Props • Denver

J. Murray
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.6
Best Odds
Over
-112

In comparison to last season's 38.9% mark, Jamal Murray's three-point efficiency has risen this season to 50.2%. This year, opposing starting PGs have tallied 7.7 3-point attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Thunder, branding this as a favorable matchup. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Jamal Murray has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 10.0% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Jamal Murray

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.6
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.6

In comparison to last season's 38.9% mark, Jamal Murray's three-point efficiency has risen this season to 50.2%. This year, opposing starting PGs have tallied 7.7 3-point attempts per game (30th-most in the NBA) against the Thunder, branding this as a favorable matchup. The Oklahoma City Thunder have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more possessions for the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds retain possession and produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 4thbest in in the NBA with 11.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Jamal Murray has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 10.0% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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