Final Oct 7
ORL 104 -1.0 o215.0
NO 106 1.0 u215.0
Final Oct 7
MEM 121 -8.0 o218.5
DAL 116 8.0 u218.5
Final Oct 7
OKC 112 -4.0 o219.0
SA 107 4.0 u219.0
Final Oct 7
HOU 113 -4.0 o219.5
UTA 122 4.0 u219.5
Miami 8th EASTERN CONFERENCE46-36
Detroit 15th EASTERN CONFERENCE14-68
NBALP

Miami @ Detroit props

Little Caesars Arena

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Nikola Jovic Points Scored Props • Miami

N. Jovic
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.6
Best Odds
Over
+112

Out of all players in the league, Nikola Jovic ranks in the 87th percentile for 3-point ability with a phenomenal 40.3% rate this year. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Nikola Jovic has converted 97.5% of his foul shot attempts over the last 11 games on the road, 43.1% higher than he's converted overall this season when playing on the road. As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game. Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 5.0 free throws per game (6th-most in the league) vs. the Pistons, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

Nikola Jovic

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.6
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.6

Out of all players in the league, Nikola Jovic ranks in the 87th percentile for 3-point ability with a phenomenal 40.3% rate this year. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Nikola Jovic has converted 97.5% of his foul shot attempts over the last 11 games on the road, 43.1% higher than he's converted overall this season when playing on the road. As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game. Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 5.0 free throws per game (6th-most in the league) vs. the Pistons, making it fairly effortless to get to the foul line.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.5
Best Odds
Over
-125

Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier comes in at the 92nd percentile for three-point attempts, totaling 6.6 per game this year. Terry Rozier has been on the court for 34.0 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 92nd percentile. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Terry Rozier has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 11.9% higher than he's converted over the course of the season. As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game.

Terry Rozier

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.5
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.5

Out of all players in the league, Terry Rozier comes in at the 92nd percentile for three-point attempts, totaling 6.6 per game this year. Terry Rozier has been on the court for 34.0 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the league: 92nd percentile. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Terry Rozier has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 11.9% higher than he's converted over the course of the season. As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game.

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.8
Best Odds
Over
-121

Duncan Robinson has logged a terrific 13.4 points per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 7.3 points per game last year. Duncan Robinson has played 33.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 4.9 more than he's played overall this season. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Duncan Robinson has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 13.2% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.8
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.8

Duncan Robinson has logged a terrific 13.4 points per game this year, quite a bit higher than his 7.3 points per game last year. Duncan Robinson has played 33.3 minutes per game over the last 10 games, 4.9 more than he's played overall this season. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Duncan Robinson has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 13.2% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season. As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game.

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
21.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.8
Best Odds
Over
-115

Jimmy Butler has converted 55.4% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 5.7% higher than he's converted overall this year away from home. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler slots into the 95th percentile for three-point performance with a terrific 45.0% rate this year. Jimmy Butler has tallied 33.5 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Jimmy Butler has attempted 8.0 foul shots per game this year, placing him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 21.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.8
Prop:
21.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.8

Jimmy Butler has converted 55.4% of his field goal attempts over the last 10 games on the road, 5.7% higher than he's converted overall this year away from home. Among all players in the NBA, Jimmy Butler slots into the 95th percentile for three-point performance with a terrific 45.0% rate this year. Jimmy Butler has tallied 33.5 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 91st percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). Jimmy Butler has attempted 8.0 foul shots per game this year, placing him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the league.

Marcus Sasser Points Scored Props • Detroit

M. Sasser
shooting guard SG • Detroit
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-104
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
8.6
Best Odds
Over
-104
Projection Rating

Marcus Sasser has sunk 51.2% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 11.0% more than he's put through the net overall this season on his home court. Marcus Sasser has sunk 1.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games at home, 0.6 higher than he's converted from three in all games this season when playing at home. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Marcus Sasser will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage generally improves player performance in all stat categories.

Marcus Sasser

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 8.6
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
8.6

Marcus Sasser has sunk 51.2% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 11.0% more than he's put through the net overall this season on his home court. Marcus Sasser has sunk 1.7 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games at home, 0.6 higher than he's converted from three in all games this season when playing at home. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Marcus Sasser will enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing with the home court advantage generally improves player performance in all stat categories.

Isaiah Stewart Points Scored Props • Detroit

I. Stewart
power forward PF • Detroit
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.3
Best Odds
Over
-130

Out of all players in the league, Isaiah Stewart comes in at the 79th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 30.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 43.4% on 3-pointers (2nd-best in the league) vs. the Heat, marking this as a favorable matchup. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Isaiah Stewart has successfully made 91.7% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 15.2% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.

Isaiah Stewart

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.3
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.3

Out of all players in the league, Isaiah Stewart comes in at the 79th percentile for playing time, tallying a massive 30.8 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year. This year, opposing starting PFs have averaged 43.4% on 3-pointers (2nd-best in the league) vs. the Heat, marking this as a favorable matchup. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Isaiah Stewart has successfully made 91.7% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 15.2% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.

Jaden Ivey Points Scored Props • Detroit

J. Ivey
point guard PG • Detroit
Prop
15.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.3
Best Odds
Over
-120

Jaden Ivey has attempted 16.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 3.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this year at home. Jaden Ivey has played 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games while at home, 5.2 more than he's played overall this year at home. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 three attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, creating a positive matchup. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Jaden Ivey

Prop: 15.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.3
Prop:
15.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.3

Jaden Ivey has attempted 16.2 shots from the field per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 3.3 higher than he's attempted in all games this year at home. Jaden Ivey has played 35.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games while at home, 5.2 more than he's played overall this year at home. This year, the opposing team's starting SGs have totaled 6.3 three attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, creating a positive matchup. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.9
Best Odds
Under
-105

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 15.4% of his treys this year, ranking in the 8th percentile among all players in the league. Bam Adebayo has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the league (84th percentile). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team. The Miami Heat have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo has made 62.9% of his foul shots over the last 10 games, 12.1% lower than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.9
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.9

Bam Adebayo has successfully made 15.4% of his treys this year, ranking in the 8th percentile among all players in the league. Bam Adebayo has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the league (84th percentile). The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games as the visting team. The Miami Heat have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games as the visting team (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo has made 62.9% of his foul shots over the last 10 games, 12.1% lower than he's put through the net over the course of the year.

Simone Fontecchio Points Scored Props • Detroit

S. Fontecchio
small forward SF • Detroit
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
14.3
Best Odds
Over
-105

Compared to last year's 30.7% rate, Simone Fontecchio's 3-point effectiveness has increased this year to 39.6%. This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 3-point attempts per game (3rd-highest in the league) against the Heat, resulting in a good matchup. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Simone Fontecchio has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 17.0% higher than he's sunk overall this season.

Simone Fontecchio

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 14.3
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
14.3

Compared to last year's 30.7% rate, Simone Fontecchio's 3-point effectiveness has increased this year to 39.6%. This year when they are playing at home, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 3-point attempts per game (3rd-highest in the league) against the Heat, resulting in a good matchup. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Simone Fontecchio has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 17.0% higher than he's sunk overall this season.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Jaquez Jr.
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.1
Best Odds
Over
-122

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has successfully made 54.9% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 5.7% higher than he's made in all games this year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has played 29.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 78th percentile. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.1
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.1

Jaime Jaquez Jr. has successfully made 54.9% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 5.7% higher than he's made in all games this year. Jaime Jaquez Jr. has played 29.4 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA: 78th percentile. The Heat are expected to see a spike in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the speediest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Detroit Pistons). As a team, the Heat have been great at getting to the charity stripe of late: 5th-best in the league over the last 20 games as the road team, averaging 23.1 free throw attempts per game.

Jalen Duren Points Scored Props • Detroit

J. Duren
center C • Detroit
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.9
Best Odds
Over
-122

Relative to last season's 3.9 rate, Jalen Duren's shots hit have increased this season to 5.9 per game. Compared to last season's 25.0 rate, Jalen Duren's playing time has increased this season to 29.7 minutes per game. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Jalen Duren has attempted 4.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games, 2.0 higher than he's attempted overall this season.

Jalen Duren

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.9
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.9

Relative to last season's 3.9 rate, Jalen Duren's shots hit have increased this season to 5.9 per game. Compared to last season's 25.0 rate, Jalen Duren's playing time has increased this season to 29.7 minutes per game. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Jalen Duren has attempted 4.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games, 2.0 higher than he's attempted overall this season.

Cade Cunningham Points Scored Props • Detroit

C. Cunningham
point guard PG • Detroit
Prop
20.5
Points Scored
Projection
20.7
Best Odds
Over
-120

Cade Cunningham has sunk 3.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 more than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season. Cade Cunningham has averaged 33.7 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 91st percentile. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Cade Cunningham has made 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season with the home court advantage.

Cade Cunningham

Prop: 20.5 Points Scored
Projection: 20.7
Prop:
20.5 Points Scored
Projection:
20.7

Cade Cunningham has sunk 3.0 shots from behind the three-point arc per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 more than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this season. Cade Cunningham has averaged 33.7 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 91st percentile. The Pistons have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games. The Detroit Pistons have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists). Cade Cunningham has made 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season with the home court advantage.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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