LIVE 02:55 2nd Nov 23
DET 46 9.0 o207.5
ORL 50 -9.0 u207.5
CHA 8.0 o224.0
MIL -8.0 u224.0
POR 11.5 o225.5
HOU -11.5 u225.5
MEM -4.0 o244.0
CHI 4.0 u244.0
GS -3.5 o229.0
SA 3.5 u229.0
DEN 3.5 o237.0
LAL -3.5 u237.0
Final Nov 23
NY 106 -8.5 o234.0
UTA 121 8.5 u234.0
Miami 5th EASTERN CONFERENCE6-7
Denver 6th WESTERN CONFERENCE8-6

Miami @ Denver props

Ball Arena

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jimmy Butler Points Scored Props • Miami

J. Butler
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.3
Best Odds
Under
-105
Prop
19.5 Points Scored
Projection
17.3
Best Odds
Under
-105
Projection Rating

This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 3.9 three attempts per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, branding this as a tough matchup. The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line. Jimmy Butler will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually decreases stat production in all stat categories.

Jimmy Butler

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.3
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.3

This year, the other team's starting SFs have tallied 3.9 three attempts per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) against the Denver Nuggets, branding this as a tough matchup. The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Over the last 20 games, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (5th-fewest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line. Jimmy Butler will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home city usually decreases stat production in all stat categories.

Terry Rozier Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Rozier
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
13.5
Points Scored
Projection
15.9
Best Odds
Over
-110
Prop
13.5 Points Scored
Projection
15.9
Best Odds
Over
-110
Projection Rating

Terry Rozier has attempted 15.9 shots from the field per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier places in the 92nd percentile for 3-point attempts, totaling 6.8 per game since the start of last season. Terry Rozier has tallied 33.3 minutes per game since the start of last season, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 88th percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc. The matchup against Denver is a positive one; when the Denver Nuggets are on their home court, they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.4).

Terry Rozier

Prop: 13.5 Points Scored
Projection: 15.9
Prop:
13.5 Points Scored
Projection:
15.9

Terry Rozier has attempted 15.9 shots from the field per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Terry Rozier places in the 92nd percentile for 3-point attempts, totaling 6.8 per game since the start of last season. Terry Rozier has tallied 33.3 minutes per game since the start of last season, putting him among the most-used players in the NBA: 88th percentile. The Miami Heat rank as the 9th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games as it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc. The matchup against Denver is a positive one; when the Denver Nuggets are on their home court, they have allowed the 2nd-most points per game in the NBA to the opposing team's starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.4).

Jamal Murray Points Scored Props • Denver

J. Murray
point guard PG • Denver
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.9
Best Odds
Over
-106
Prop
17.5 Points Scored
Projection
19.9
Best Odds
Over
-106
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray comes in at the 91st percentile for shots taken with the home court advantage, logging 17.0 per game since the start of last season. Jamal Murray has successfully made 2.3 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, ranking him in the 88th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray lands in the 82nd percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 32.7 minutes per game while at home since the start of last season. The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one; they have allowed the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The 4th-most up-tempo tempo home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Nuggets.

Jamal Murray

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.9
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.9

Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray comes in at the 91st percentile for shots taken with the home court advantage, logging 17.0 per game since the start of last season. Jamal Murray has successfully made 2.3 3-point shots per game since the start of last season, ranking him in the 88th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Jamal Murray lands in the 82nd percentile for playing time, posting a whopping 32.7 minutes per game while at home since the start of last season. The matchup against the Heat is a favorable one; they have allowed the 4th-most points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1). The 4th-most up-tempo tempo home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Nuggets.

Peyton Watson Points Scored Props • Denver

P. Watson
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
10.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Under
-121
Prop
10.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Under
-121
Projection Rating

Peyton Watson has converted just 29.4% of his field goals this year, quite a bit less than his 43.5 mark last year. Peyton Watson has made a measly 17.9% of his 3-pointers this year, quite a bit lower than his 27.1 rate last year. Peyton Watson has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year. As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).

Peyton Watson

Prop: 10.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.1
Prop:
10.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.1

Peyton Watson has converted just 29.4% of his field goals this year, quite a bit less than his 43.5 mark last year. Peyton Watson has made a measly 17.9% of his 3-pointers this year, quite a bit lower than his 27.1 rate last year. Peyton Watson has averaged 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year. As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
16.9
Best Odds
Under
-127
Prop
18.5 Points Scored
Projection
16.9
Best Odds
Under
-127
Projection Rating

Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.8 shots from downtown per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 16th percentile out of all players in the league. The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo ought to experience a decrease in production for all stats due to being on the road in this game.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 16.9
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
16.9

Bam Adebayo has attempted 0.8 shots from downtown per game since the start of last season, placing him in the 16th percentile out of all players in the league. The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Bam Adebayo ought to experience a decrease in production for all stats due to being on the road in this game.

Michael Porter Points Scored Props • Denver

M. Porter
small forward SF • Denver
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.2
Best Odds
Under
-125
Prop
18.5 Points Scored
Projection
17.2
Best Odds
Under
-125
Projection Rating

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).

Michael Porter

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.2
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.2

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat).

Nikola Jokić Points Scored Props • Denver

N. Jokić
center C • Denver
Prop
26.5
Points Scored
Projection
25.4
Best Odds
Under
-115
Prop
26.5 Points Scored
Projection
25.4
Best Odds
Under
-115
Projection Rating

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat). The showdown with Bam Adebayo with respect to getting to the free-throw line rates in the 19th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.8 foul shots per game since the start of last season.

Nikola Jokić

Prop: 26.5 Points Scored
Projection: 25.4
Prop:
26.5 Points Scored
Projection:
25.4

As it relates to shots from behind the three-point arc, the least aggressive team in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets. The Nuggets will likely experience a decrease in possessions today from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat). The showdown with Bam Adebayo with respect to getting to the free-throw line rates in the 19th percentile for difficulty with the other side's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.8 foul shots per game since the start of last season.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
18.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.1
Best Odds
Under
-105
Prop
18.5 Points Scored
Projection
18.1
Best Odds
Under
-105
Projection Rating

The matchup against Denver is a tough one for 3-pointers; when the Denver Nuggets are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have put up the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (20.5%). The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Tyler Herro will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually reduces stat production for all stats.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 18.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.1
Prop:
18.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.1

The matchup against Denver is a tough one for 3-pointers; when the Denver Nuggets are at home, the opposing team's starting PGs have put up the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (20.5%). The 2nd-most sluggish pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat rank as the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Tyler Herro will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually reduces stat production for all stats.

Christian Braun Points Scored Props • Denver

C. Braun
shooting guard SG • Denver
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
11.8
Best Odds
Over
-128
Prop
11.5 Points Scored
Projection
11.8
Best Odds
Over
-128
Projection Rating

Among all players in the NBA, Christian Braun slots into the 83rd percentile for field goals converted, averaging a colossal 5.8 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Christian Braun registers in the 94th percentile for three-point efficiency with an impressive 54.4% rate this year. In comparison to last year's 19.8 rate, Christian Braun's playing time has spiked this year to 35.5 minutes per game. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). The 4th-most up-tempo tempo home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Nuggets.

Christian Braun

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 11.8
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
11.8

Among all players in the NBA, Christian Braun slots into the 83rd percentile for field goals converted, averaging a colossal 5.8 per game this year. Out of all players in the league, Christian Braun registers in the 94th percentile for three-point efficiency with an impressive 54.4% rate this year. In comparison to last year's 19.8 rate, Christian Braun's playing time has spiked this year to 35.5 minutes per game. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for shot attempts from beyond the arc; the other team's starting SGs have averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (6.3). The 4th-most up-tempo tempo home team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Nuggets.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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