Boston @ Miami Picks & Props

Duncan Robinson has sunk 3.8 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.0 more than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season while at home. Duncan Robinson has averaged 33.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games on his home court, 8.0 more than he's averaged in all games this year at home. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Duncan Robinson has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 10.4% more than he's put through the net in all games this year. Duncan Robinson will enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage tends to raise player production for all stats.

Jaylen Brown has tallied 4.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games on the road, 1.2 more than he's tallied overall this year on the road. The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Jaylen Brown will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home stadium usually worsens stat production for all stats.

Sam Hauser has successfully made 55.9% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 10 games on the road, 12.0% higher than he's made from three over the course of the year while playing away from home. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a strong one for 3-point attempts; opposing starting SGs have averaged the most 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Relative to last season's 90.9% rate, Sam Hauser's free-throw performance has risen this season to 100.0%. The matchup against Miami is a strong one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a massive 3.4 free throws per game this year when the Heat are at home (9th-most in the league).

Terry Rozier has attempted 14.2 shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.0 higher than he's attempted in all games this season. Terry Rozier has sunk 3.0 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's made over the course of the year. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. This year, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 3.0 three-pointers per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, branding this as a strong matchup. Terry Rozier figures to get a boost in production in all facets of the game as a result of enjoying the home court advantage in this matchup.

The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Relative to last season's 90.7% mark, Derrick White's foul-shot ability has tailed off this season to 81.8%. Derrick White ought to suffer a drop-off in output in all stat categories as a result of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

Payton Pritchard has put up a terrific 14.1 points per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 9.0 points per game last year. Payton Pritchard has sunk a terrific 3.2 treys per game this year, quite a bit more than his 1.7 rate last year. Payton Pritchard has played an impressive 27.7 minutes per game this year, a big improvement over his 21.6 minutes per game last year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The rate of shots from downtown sunk against Andrew Wiggins has been quite low (29.2%) when he is on his home court and matched up against fellow starting SFs since the start of last season (17th percentile). The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). Jayson Tatum will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases stat production for all stats.

The matchup vs. the Boston Celtics is a challenging one; they have given up the 2nd-least points per game in the league to opposing starting PFs this year (14.5). The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Celtics). The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Boston is a hard one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted just 3.1 free throws per game this year when the Celtics are on the road (8th-least in the NBA).

Kel'el Ware has sunk 59.4% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 10 games at home, 5.4% higher than he's sunk overall this year when playing at home. Kel'el Ware has averaged 32.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games while playing at home, 11.0 more than he's averaged over the course of the year at home. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Kel'el Ware has sunk 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 24.6% more than he's made overall this season. Kel'el Ware figures to see a rise in productivity for all stats as a result of possessing the home court advantage in this matchup.

The 3rd-most sluggish tempo home team in the league this year has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a drop-off in plays in this contest from competing against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo team in the league over the last 20 games (the Celtics). The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists). This year, opposing starting PGs have attempted 2.3 foul shots per game (lowest in the league) against the Boston Celtics, finding it difficult to get to the foul line.

Kristaps Porzingis has attempted 7.4 treys per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 more than he's attempted in all games this year. The showdown with Kel'el Ware measures in the 100th percentile with the other team's starting Cs hitting a colossal 43.8% of their shots from downtown this year. Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate extra opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 10th-best in in the NBA when playing away from home with 11.1 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games. Kristaps Porzingis has sunk 90.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 10 games, 8.2% more than he's sunk over the course of the year.

Al Horford has sunk 39.0% of his field goals this year, ranking him in the 21st percentile among all players in the NBA. The Boston Celtics have been the 10th-least efficient shooting team in the league when playing on the road this year. The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games. The Boston Celtics are expected to suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from being pitted against the 3rd-slowest pace-of-play home team in the league this year (the Heat). The matchup against the Heat may be a challenging one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the NBA).

Nikola Jovic has successfully made 2.8 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games, 1.0 higher than he's converted overall this year. Nikola Jovic has played 34.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 9.9 higher than he's played in all games this year. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Nikola Jovic has converted an impressive 1.7 foul shots per game this season, a big improvement over his 0.7 mark last season. Nikola Jovic will likely see an increase in efficiency for all stats considering enjoying the home court advantage in this matchup.

Andrew Wiggins has put up 21.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.0 more than he's put up in all games this season. Andrew Wiggins has been on the court for 34.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 4.3 more than he's been on the court for in all games this season. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 6.7 three attempts per game (most in the league) vs. the Boston Celtics, marking this as a positive matchup. Compared to last year's 72.3% clip, Andrew Wiggins's foul-shot proficiency has jumped this year to 81.9%.

Davion Mitchell has converted 50.6% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games, 10.9% higher than he's made from three overall this year. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. This year, the other team's starting PGs have averaged 3.0 three-pointers per game (most in the NBA) vs. the Boston Celtics, branding this as a strong matchup. Out of all players in the league, Davion Mitchell places in the 100th percentile for free-throw performance on his home court with a superb 100.0% rate since the start of last season. Davion Mitchell figures to see a rise in productivity for all stats due to holding the home court advantage in this game.

Out of all players in the league, Alec Burks comes in at the 90th percentile for 3-point prowess with a remarkable 40.4% rate this year. Among all players in the league, Alec Burks comes in at the 13th percentile for personal fouls, posting a lowly 0.7 fouls per game this year. The Heat have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 15 games as it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc. Alec Burks will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing at home usually boosts player production for all stats.

Luke Kornet has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.