MIA 1.5 o219.5
ATL -1.5 u219.5
DAL 6.5 o221.0
MEM -6.5 u221.0
Miami 10th EASTERN CONFERENCE37-45
Dallas 10th WESTERN CONFERENCE39-43

Miami @ Dallas picks

American Airlines Center

MIA vs DAL Picks

NBA Picks
Total Assists
K. Anderson u3.5 Total Assists
Projection 2.3 (Under)
Best Odds
u3.5 -120 betmgm
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 -105
3.5 -125
3.5 -110
3.5 -120
3.5 -114
3.5 -120

The 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 8th-most sluggish tempo home team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). The Miami Heat have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). Kyle Anderson is expected to see a decline in production for all stats as a result of playing away from home in this matchup.

Points Scored
S. Dinwiddie u17.5 Points Scored
Projection 14.8 (Under)
Best Odds
u17.5 -110 betmgm
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
17.5 -118
17.5 -110
16.5 -125
16.5 -109
16.5 -120
16.5 -110
16.5 -108
16.5 -112

Spencer Dinwiddie has tallied 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games while on his home court, 1.0 more than he's tallied overall this year at home. The 8th-slowest tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Heat). The Mavericks rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Total Rebounds
K. Ware u12.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 10 (Under)
Best Odds
u12.5 -129 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
12.5 -105
12.5 -129
11.5 -125
11.5 -109
11.5 -110
11.5 -120
11.5 -134
11.5 +110

The 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 8th-most sluggish tempo home team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). The Miami Heat have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). Kel'el Ware should suffer a drop-off in productivity for all stats due to being on the road in this contest.

Points Scored
K. Anderson u6.5 Points Scored
Projection 5.6 (Under)
Best Odds
u6.5 +100 betmgm
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
6.5 -135
6.5 +100
6.5 -133
6.5 -103
6.5 -125
6.5 -105

The 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 8th-most sluggish tempo home team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). The Miami Heat have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted just 2.5 free throws per game this year when the Dallas Mavericks are on their home court (3rd-least in the league). Kyle Anderson is expected to see a decline in production for all stats as a result of playing away from home in this matchup.

Points Scored
M. Christie u17.5 Points Scored
Projection 15.3 (Under)
Best Odds
u17.5 -125 draftkings
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
17.5 -105
17.5 -130
17.5 -106
17.5 -125
17.5 -109
17.5 -125
17.5 -105
17.5 -125
16.5 -118
16.5 -104

The 8th-slowest tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Heat). The Mavericks rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists). The matchup vs. Miami may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting SGs have attempted a lowly 1.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Heat are on the road (4th-least in the NBA).

Total Assists
D. Exum u3.5 Total Assists
Projection 3.3 (Under)
Best Odds
u3.5 +123 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
3.5 -135
3.5 +105
3.5 -140
3.5 +105
3.5 -162
3.5 +123
3.5 -118
3.5 -118
3.5 -125
3.5 -105
3.5 -114
3.5 -106

The 8th-slowest tempo home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-most lethargic tempo offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Heat). The Mavericks rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).

Points Scored
B. Adebayo u19.5 Points Scored
Projection 18 (Under)
Best Odds
u19.5 -105 betmgm
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
19.5 -130
19.5 -105
19.5 -104
19.5 -129
19.5 -118
19.5 -118
19.5 -115
19.5 -115
19.5 -105
19.5 -115

The 3rd-most sluggish pace team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Miami Heat. The Miami Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from sharing the court with the 8th-most sluggish tempo home team in the league over the last 15 games (the Dallas Mavericks). The Miami Heat have been the 5th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). Relative to last season's 5.3 rate, Bam Adebayo's number of free throw attempts has decreased this season to 4.1 free throw attempts per game. The matchup against Dallas is a difficult one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted just 2.5 free throws per game this year when the Dallas Mavericks are on their home court (3rd-least in the league).

Points Scored
H. Highsmith o5.5 Points Scored
Projection 7.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 -130 fanduel
Projection updated: 63 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
5.5 -130
5.5 +106

In regard to threes, the Heat's superb 14.0 sunk threes per game away from their home court places 7th-highest in the league this year. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a positive one for shots from the field; the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the most shot attempts per game in the league this year (16.0).

MIA vs DAL Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

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Spread

68% picking Dallas

32%
68%

Total Picks MIA 210, DAL 453

Spread
MIA
DAL

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