Indiana @ Miami picks

Aaron Nesmith has sunk 53.8% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 7.5% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year. Aaron Nesmith has converted 2.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's converted in all games this season. Compared to last year's 3.5 mark, Aaron Nesmith's personal fouls per game have tailed off this year to 2.6. In regard to scoring, the Pacers's fantastic 123.4 points per game settles in as the 4th-highest in the NBA over the last 5 games. This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 12.2 shot attempts per game (7th-most in the league) against the Miami Heat, designating this as a good matchup.

The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league at home this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Pacers. The Indiana Pacers check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). T.J. McConnell will not possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city generally worsens player performance across the board.

Among all players in the NBA, Bennedict Mathurin slots into the 81st percentile for personal fouls, averaging a whopping 2.3 fouls per game this year. The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league at home this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Pacers. The Indiana Pacers check in as the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Bennedict Mathurin will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing while traveling tends to decrease player performance for all stats.

The Miami Heat have played at the most sluggish tempo in the league playing at home this year. The Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA with the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Compared to last year's 1.0 rate, Pascal Siakam's three-pointers sunk have risen this year to 1.7 per game. Out of all players in the NBA, Pascal Siakam rates in the 88th percentile for playing time, tallying a colossal 33.0 minutes per game on the road this year. The Pacers have been the 10th-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 20 games while on the road. The matchup against Miami is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are playing at home, the opposition's starting PFs have compiled the highest three percentage in the league this year (46.4%). The 5th-quickest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Indiana Pacers.