BOS -4.5 o198.0
ORL 4.5 u198.0
IND 5.5 o230.5
MIL -5.5 u230.5
LAL 3.0 o206.5
MIN -3.0 u206.5
Minnesota 6th WESTERN CONFERENCE49-33
Miami 10th EASTERN CONFERENCE37-45

Minnesota @ Miami props

Kaseya Center

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Points Scored Props • Minnesota

N. Alexander-Walker
shooting guard SG • Minnesota
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Over
+100
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
9.1
Best Odds
Over
+100
Projection Rating

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has successfully made 40.2% of his three-point shots while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has tallied 32.9 minutes per game over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, 6.4 more than he's tallied in all games this year on the road. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Nickeil Alexander-Walker has sunk 91.5% of his free throws over the last 15 games, 15.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.1
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.1

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has successfully made 40.2% of his three-point shots while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the NBA. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has tallied 32.9 minutes per game over the last 10 games without the home court advantage, 6.4 more than he's tallied in all games this year on the road. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Nickeil Alexander-Walker has sunk 91.5% of his free throws over the last 15 games, 15.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.

Donte DiVincenzo Points Scored Props • Minnesota

D. DiVincenzo
shooting guard SG • Minnesota
Prop
12.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.7
Best Odds
Under
-124

Donte DiVincenzo has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's averaged in all games this year. In regard to scoring, the Timberwolves's poor 44.7% field goal rate comes in as the 4th-lowest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from facing the slowest tempo home team in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat). Donte DiVincenzo will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player production for all stats.

Donte DiVincenzo

Prop: 12.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.7
Prop:
12.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.7

Donte DiVincenzo has averaged 2.8 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's averaged in all games this year. In regard to scoring, the Timberwolves's poor 44.7% field goal rate comes in as the 4th-lowest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from facing the slowest tempo home team in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat). Donte DiVincenzo will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city usually reduces player production for all stats.

Julius Randle Points Scored Props • Minnesota

J. Randle
power forward PF • Minnesota
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
19.8
Best Odds
Over
-120

Julius Randle has been on the court for 32.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 88th percentile. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 46.4% on threes (best in the NBA) vs. the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Julius Randle has made 91.9% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 7.7% higher than he's made over the course of the year.

Julius Randle

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 19.8
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
19.8

Julius Randle has been on the court for 32.6 minutes per game this year, putting him among the most-utilized players in the league: 88th percentile. This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 46.4% on threes (best in the NBA) vs. the Heat, designating this as a strong matchup. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Julius Randle has made 91.9% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 7.7% higher than he's made over the course of the year.

Tyler Herro Points Scored Props • Miami

T. Herro
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
25.5
Points Scored
Projection
23.4
Best Odds
Under
-122

The most sluggish pace home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 1stworst in in the NBA while playing at home with just 8.4 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 2.2 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

Tyler Herro

Prop: 25.5 Points Scored
Projection: 23.4
Prop:
25.5 Points Scored
Projection:
23.4

The most sluggish pace home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 1stworst in in the NBA while playing at home with just 8.4 offensive rebounds per game this year. Over the last 20 games, the other team's starting SGs have attempted 2.2 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

Davion Mitchell Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Mitchell
point guard PG • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
9.2
Best Odds
Over
-135

Davion Mitchell has converted 54.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games, 11.5% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Davion Mitchell has sunk 55.6% of his three-point shots over the last 15 games, 12.7% more than he's made from three in all games this year. Davion Mitchell has been on the court for 32.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.2 more than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Davion Mitchell will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city tends to improve player performance across the board.

Davion Mitchell

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 9.2
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
9.2

Davion Mitchell has converted 54.7% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 15 games, 11.5% more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. Davion Mitchell has sunk 55.6% of his three-point shots over the last 15 games, 12.7% more than he's made from three in all games this year. Davion Mitchell has been on the court for 32.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.2 more than he's been on the court for in all games this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Davion Mitchell will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing in your home city tends to improve player performance across the board.

Jaden McDaniels Points Scored Props • Minnesota

J. McDaniels
power forward PF • Minnesota
Prop
14.5
Points Scored
Projection
13.3
Best Odds
Under
-113

Out of all players in the NBA, Jaden McDaniels ranks in the 96th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a colossal 2.9 fouls per game this year. In regard to scoring, the Timberwolves's poor 44.7% field goal rate comes in as the 4th-lowest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from facing the slowest tempo home team in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat). Jaden McDaniels will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road tends to lower player performance across the board.

Jaden McDaniels

Prop: 14.5 Points Scored
Projection: 13.3
Prop:
14.5 Points Scored
Projection:
13.3

Out of all players in the NBA, Jaden McDaniels ranks in the 96th percentile for personal fouls, tallying a colossal 2.9 fouls per game this year. In regard to scoring, the Timberwolves's poor 44.7% field goal rate comes in as the 4th-lowest in the NBA over the last 10 games. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most lethargic tempo in the league this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to see a decline in opportunities in this game from facing the slowest tempo home team in the NBA this year (the Miami Heat). Jaden McDaniels will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on the road tends to lower player performance across the board.

Naz Reid Points Scored Props • Minnesota

N. Reid
center C • Minnesota
Prop
16.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.4
Best Odds
Over
-120

Naz Reid has attempted 17.0 shots per game over the last 10 games, 5.2 higher than he's attempted in all games this year. Naz Reid has attempted 9.0 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Naz Reid has averaged 36.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 8.6 more than he's averaged in all games this year. The clash with Bam Adebayo measures in the 100th percentile with the opposition's starting Cs nailing a whopping 42.3% of their shots from downtown this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Naz Reid

Prop: 16.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.4
Prop:
16.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.4

Naz Reid has attempted 17.0 shots per game over the last 10 games, 5.2 higher than he's attempted in all games this year. Naz Reid has attempted 9.0 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 3.1 higher than he's attempted overall this season. Naz Reid has averaged 36.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 8.6 more than he's averaged in all games this year. The clash with Bam Adebayo measures in the 100th percentile with the opposition's starting Cs nailing a whopping 42.3% of their shots from downtown this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Rudy Gobert Points Scored Props • Minnesota

R. Gobert
center C • Minnesota
Prop
9.5
Points Scored
Projection
10.7
Best Odds
Over
-108

Rudy Gobert has successfully made 5.7 buckets per game over the last 10 games, 1.4 more than he's put through the hoop overall this season. Rudy Gobert has played 32.6 minutes per game while on the road this year, placing him in the 87th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA. The clash with Bam Adebayo measures in the 100th percentile with the opposition's starting Cs nailing a whopping 42.3% of their shots from downtown this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Rudy Gobert has attempted 5.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.

Rudy Gobert

Prop: 9.5 Points Scored
Projection: 10.7
Prop:
9.5 Points Scored
Projection:
10.7

Rudy Gobert has successfully made 5.7 buckets per game over the last 10 games, 1.4 more than he's put through the hoop overall this season. Rudy Gobert has played 32.6 minutes per game while on the road this year, placing him in the 87th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA. The clash with Bam Adebayo measures in the 100th percentile with the opposition's starting Cs nailing a whopping 42.3% of their shots from downtown this year. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Rudy Gobert has attempted 5.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the year.

Bam Adebayo Points Scored Props • Miami

B. Adebayo
center C • Miami
Prop
19.5
Points Scored
Projection
18.7
Best Odds
Under
-110

Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo comes in at the 25th percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a poor 27.4% rate this year. The faceoff with Naz Reid comes in at the 10th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs averaging a mere 11.7 points per game this year when they are on their home court. The most sluggish pace home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 1stworst in in the NBA while playing at home with just 8.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Bam Adebayo

Prop: 19.5 Points Scored
Projection: 18.7
Prop:
19.5 Points Scored
Projection:
18.7

Out of all players in the NBA, Bam Adebayo comes in at the 25th percentile for 3-point effectiveness with a poor 27.4% rate this year. The faceoff with Naz Reid comes in at the 10th percentile for difficulty with the opposition's starting Cs averaging a mere 11.7 points per game this year when they are on their home court. The most sluggish pace home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat. Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and generate bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Heat rank 1stworst in in the NBA while playing at home with just 8.4 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Anthony Edwards Points Scored Props • Minnesota

A. Edwards
shooting guard SG • Minnesota
Prop
25.5
Points Scored
Projection
26.5
Best Odds
Over
-118

Among all players in the league, Anthony Edwards rates in the 99th percentile, compiling a whopping 27.5 points per game this year. In contrast to last season's 2.5 rate, Anthony Edwards's 3-point shots hit have spiked this season to 4.1 per game. Anthony Edwards has tallied 36.6 minutes per game while on the road this year, placing him in the 97th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied the most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Anthony Edwards

Prop: 25.5 Points Scored
Projection: 26.5
Prop:
25.5 Points Scored
Projection:
26.5

Among all players in the league, Anthony Edwards rates in the 99th percentile, compiling a whopping 27.5 points per game this year. In contrast to last season's 2.5 rate, Anthony Edwards's 3-point shots hit have spiked this season to 4.1 per game. Anthony Edwards has tallied 36.6 minutes per game while on the road this year, placing him in the 97th percentile -- ranking among the most used players in the NBA. The matchup against the Miami Heat is a good one for three-point attempts; the opposing team's starting SGs have tallied the most three attempts per game in the league this year (6.3). The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

Duncan Robinson Points Scored Props • Miami

D. Robinson
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
11.5
Points Scored
Projection
12.2
Best Odds
Over
-118

Duncan Robinson has sunk 3.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 15 games at home, 0.6 higher than he's made from three in all games this year with the home court advantage. Duncan Robinson has played 31.2 minutes per game over the last 10 games while playing at home, 5.4 higher than he's played over the course of the season at home. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Duncan Robinson has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 10 games, 9.8% higher than he's made overall this year. Duncan Robinson is expected to get a boost in productivity across the board due to controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

Duncan Robinson

Prop: 11.5 Points Scored
Projection: 12.2
Prop:
11.5 Points Scored
Projection:
12.2

Duncan Robinson has sunk 3.4 shots from downtown per game over the last 15 games at home, 0.6 higher than he's made from three in all games this year with the home court advantage. Duncan Robinson has played 31.2 minutes per game over the last 10 games while playing at home, 5.4 higher than he's played over the course of the season at home. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Duncan Robinson has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 10 games, 9.8% higher than he's made overall this year. Duncan Robinson is expected to get a boost in productivity across the board due to controlling the home court advantage in this matchup.

Andrew Wiggins Points Scored Props • Miami

A. Wiggins
small forward SF • Miami
Prop
17.5
Points Scored
Projection
17.6
Best Odds
Over
+105

Andrew Wiggins has compiled 14.3 points per game with the home court advantage since the start of last season, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- among the NBA's leaders by this metric. Relative to last season's 1.3 mark, Andrew Wiggins's three-pointers hit have spiked this season to 2.1 per game. Andrew Wiggins has played 36.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.4 higher than he's played overall this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Out of all players in the league, Andrew Wiggins comes in at the 92nd percentile for getting to the charity stripe, logging a massive 4.5 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Andrew Wiggins

Prop: 17.5 Points Scored
Projection: 17.6
Prop:
17.5 Points Scored
Projection:
17.6

Andrew Wiggins has compiled 14.3 points per game with the home court advantage since the start of last season, putting him in the 83rd percentile -- among the NBA's leaders by this metric. Relative to last season's 1.3 mark, Andrew Wiggins's three-pointers hit have spiked this season to 2.1 per game. Andrew Wiggins has played 36.2 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.4 higher than he's played overall this year. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Out of all players in the league, Andrew Wiggins comes in at the 92nd percentile for getting to the charity stripe, logging a massive 4.5 foul shot attempts per game this year.

Kevin Love Points Scored Props • Miami

K. Love
power forward PF • Miami
Prop
7.5
Points Scored
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Under
-118
Prop
7.5 Points Scored
Projection
7.4
Best Odds
Under
-118
Projection Rating

Kevin Love has sunk 32.6% of his field goals this year, ranking him in the 7th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Kevin Love ranks in the 19th percentile for playing time, compiling a lowly 11.2 minutes per game this year. This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have registered 14.5 points per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, identifying this as a challenging matchup for offensive production. The most sluggish pace home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat.

Kevin Love

Prop: 7.5 Points Scored
Projection: 7.4
Prop:
7.5 Points Scored
Projection:
7.4

Kevin Love has sunk 32.6% of his field goals this year, ranking him in the 7th percentile among all players in the NBA. Among all players in the NBA, Kevin Love ranks in the 19th percentile for playing time, compiling a lowly 11.2 minutes per game this year. This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have registered 14.5 points per game (fewest in the NBA) vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves, identifying this as a challenging matchup for offensive production. The most sluggish pace home team in the league this year has been the Heat. The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Heat.

Pelle Larsson Points Scored Props • Miami

P. Larsson
shooting guard SG • Miami
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.5
Best Odds
Over
+106
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.5
Best Odds
Over
+106
Projection Rating

Pelle Larsson has sunk 59.5% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 14.4% higher than he's converted overall this year. Pelle Larsson has successfully made 51.2% of his three-point attempts over the last 10 games, 15.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Pelle Larsson will possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court generally improves player production for all stats.

Pelle Larsson

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.5
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.5

Pelle Larsson has sunk 59.5% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 14.4% higher than he's converted overall this year. Pelle Larsson has successfully made 51.2% of his three-point attempts over the last 10 games, 15.1% more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the year. The Miami Heat rank as the 10th-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 25 games in regard to shots from behind the three-point arc. Pelle Larsson will possess the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court generally improves player production for all stats.

Mike Conley Points Scored Props • Minnesota

M. Conley
point guard PG • Minnesota
Prop
6.5
Points Scored
Projection
6.8
Best Odds
Over
-128
Prop
6.5 Points Scored
Projection
6.8
Best Odds
Over
-128
Projection Rating

Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have notched 23.1 points per game (4th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, labeling this as a good matchup for offensive production. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Mike Conley has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 9.4% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. The matchup against the Heat may be a good one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PGs have attempted an enormous 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the league).

Mike Conley

Prop: 6.5 Points Scored
Projection: 6.8
Prop:
6.5 Points Scored
Projection:
6.8

Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have notched 23.1 points per game (4th-most in the NBA) vs. the Miami Heat, labeling this as a good matchup for offensive production. The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists). Mike Conley has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 9.4% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year. The matchup against the Heat may be a good one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PGs have attempted an enormous 5.8 free throws per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the league).

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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