MIL 4.0 o228.5
IND -4.0 u228.5
MEM 14.5 o229.0
OKC -14.5 u229.0
MIN 5.5 o210.0
LAL -5.5 u210.0
Milwaukee 5th EASTERN CONFERENCE48-34
Denver 4th WESTERN CONFERENCE50-32

Milwaukee @ Denver picks

Ball Arena

MIL vs DEN Picks

NBA Picks
Points Scored
R. Rollins o7.5 Points Scored
Projection 12.3 (Over)
Best Odds
o7.5 -125 draftkings
Projection updated: 27 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
7.5 -125
7.5 -105
7.5 -128
7.5 +100

Ryan Rollins has attempted 4.1 shots from the field per game this year, significantly more than his 2.1 mark last year. In contrast to last season's 5.9 clip, Ryan Rollins's playing time has surged this season to 12.5 minutes per game. The Milwaukee Bucks have been the 2nd-most efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA this year. The Milwaukee Bucks will likely see a spike in plays today from sharing the court with the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Nuggets). Ryan Rollins has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 12.2% higher than he's made over the course of the season.

Points Scored
K. Porter u16.5 Points Scored
Projection 13.2 (Under)
Best Odds
u16.5 -122 fanduel
Projection updated: 27 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
14.5 -118
14.5 -115
14.5 -147
14.5 +108
16.5 -105
16.5 -125
16.5 -104
16.5 -122

The matchup against Denver is a challenging one for 3-pointers; when the Denver Nuggets have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have shot for the 2nd-lowest three percentage in the league this year (20.5%). The Bucks have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games. The Bucks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). Kevin Porter Jr. will not enjoy the home court advantage in this game. Playing while traveling generally lowers player performance across the board.

Points Scored
N. Jokic u26.5 Points Scored
Projection 23.3 (Under)
Best Odds
u26.5 -130 betmgm
Projection updated: 27 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
26.5 -105
26.5 -130
25.5 -109
25.5 -125
25.5 -110
25.5 -120
25.5 +102
25.5 -130

Nikola Jokic has tallied 3.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 more than he's tallied over the course of the season. The Denver Nuggets have been the least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc. The Denver Nuggets will likely see a decline in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Milwaukee Bucks). The matchup with Brook Lopez when it comes to drawing fouls places in the 3rd percentile for difficulty with the other team's starting Cs attempting a mere 2.2 foul shots per game this year when they are playing at home.

Total Assists
A. Green u2.5 Total Assists
Projection 1.9 (Under)
Best Odds
u2.5 -125 betmgm
Projection updated: 27 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
2.5 +100
2.5 -130
2.5 -105
2.5 -125
2.5 +108
2.5 -147
2.5 +140
2.5 -180

The Bucks have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 5 games. The Bucks check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists). AJ Green will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road usually reduces player production in all stat categories.

Points Scored
C. Braun o12.5 Points Scored
Projection 13.9 (Over)
Best Odds
o12.5 +100 betmgm
Projection updated: 27 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
12.5 +100
12.5 -135
12.5 -115
12.5 -115
12.5 -120
12.5 -114
12.5 -115
12.5 -115
12.5 -104
12.5 -122

Christian Braun has made 76.3% of his field goals over the last 5 games, 18.6% more than he's converted overall this year. Christian Braun has averaged 33.2 minutes per game at home this year, putting him in the 90th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the league. The matchup vs. Milwaukee is a strong one for threes; when the Milwaukee Bucks are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SGs have shot for the 5th-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (43.5%). The 6th-quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds save possession and spark further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 4th-best in in the league with 13.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Total Assists
R. Rollins o2.5 Total Assists
Projection 3.8 (Over)
Best Odds
o2.5 -138 fanduel
Projection updated: 27 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
2.5 -150
2.5 +120
2.5 -140
2.5 +110
2.5 -138
2.5 +108

Ryan Rollins has posted 3.4 assists per game over the last 5 games while playing away from home, 1.6 higher than he's posted over the course of the year on the road. In contrast to last season's 5.9 clip, Ryan Rollins's playing time has surged this season to 12.5 minutes per game. The Milwaukee Bucks will likely see a spike in plays today from sharing the court with the 6th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the Nuggets).

Total Rebounds
A. Gordon o5.5 Total Rebounds
Projection 6.1 (Over)
Best Odds
o5.5 +120 bet_rivers_co
Projection updated: 27 days ago
EV Model Rating
Books
Over
Under
6.5 +125
6.5 -165
5.5 +120
5.5 -159
5.5 +100
5.5 -137
5.5 -105
5.5 -125
5.5 +112
5.5 -142

Aaron Gordon has compiled 2.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 0.4 more than he's compiled over the course of the year. Aaron Gordon has played 33.4 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.8 more than he's played over the course of the season. The 6th-quickest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets. Offensive rebounds save possession and spark further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 4th-best in in the league with 13.8 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games. Aaron Gordon will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home city tends to boost player production in all stat categories.

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Total

68% picking Milwaukee vs Denver to go Over

68%
32%

Total PicksMIL 294, DEN 137

Total
Over
Under

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