NBA Picks

Paul George logged only 28 minutes in a Game 1 squash against Boston, finishing with 17 points and shooting just 1 for 2 from beyond the arc. George attempts around seven 3-point shots per game when logging his usual 30+ minutes and will keep drawing an uptick in touches with Joel Embiid still sidelined. The 76ers are 14.5-point underdogs on the road, so game script has Philly playing catch up. That prompts more 3-balls from PG, whose projections sit between 2.4 and 3.1 triples with most models leaning toward three makes from deep. 

Keldon Johnson topped the Spurs with 17 rebounding chances in Game 1, resulting in seven boards across just 20 minutes. Prior to the playoffs, Johnson had snatched four or more rebounds in 16 of his last 20 contests while averaging 9.0 rebounding chances in that span. Portland is not a good offensive team and that's emphasized by the Spurs interior defense, leading to misses and more rebounding opportunities. Game script says San Antonio (-11.5) rolls and Johnson and the bench could see more minutes in the second half. This prop is up to 4.5 rebounds O/U at some books but considering I have him projected for 4+ boards, I'll lay the juice on Over 3.5. 

I expect the lopsided shooting results of Game 1 to come closer to the middle in Game 2 as well as smell a potential letdown for the Lakers, who got a Luka-like effort from reserve-turned-starter Luke Kennard on Saturday. Los Angeles won’t connect at the same clip and Houston tightens the bolts on offense, with or without Durant. Head coach Ime Udoka is emphasizing spacing and more screen action – both on and off ball – after iso-heavy sets stagnated the Rockets in Game 1. I’m holding out hope that Durant returns for the sake of this bet, but I’m confident Houston will perform better than Game 1 if he doesn’t.

Don’t expect a replay of the opening 24 minutes in Game 2. Detroit has been one of the top teams in first halves all season, boasting a +5.9 1H margin of victory at home and an overall 1H net rating of +9.2 – fourth highest in the NBA. Those derivative splits helped the Pistons pump out one of the better records against first-half spreads, going 45-35-3 1H ATS on the season. The Magic run the risk of complacency in Game 2. Most road teams aim for a split in those first two tilts of a series and the Magic have already achieved that. Mix in Orlando’s infuriating inconsistency and I have a tough time trusting in a repeat performance. The Magic are 23-23 SU and 19-27 ATS when coming off a win this season.