NBA Picks

Orlando is locked in defensively, carrying elite form into the postseason after finishing the final five regular-season games ranked first in defensive rating. They’ve sustained that level through the play-in and into this series. In Game 1, they held the Pistons to just 101 points despite Detroit attempting 38 free throws, well above their season average. That poor scoring output isn't new as Detroit went under 113.5 in five of six playoff games last season as well.

Among the multiple advantages for the Thunder is 7-footer Isaiah Hartenstein. The center has a size edge against a Suns lineup that often has to lean on a small-ball set up. Hartenstein got only 20 minutes in Game 1, with OKC smashing Phoenix, finishing with eight points on 4-for-4 shooting. His scoring prop has been tempered due to a restriction in minutes down the stretch, due to blowout wins. Hartenstein hasn’t logged more than 20 minutes since March 29. His projections for Game 2 sit between 7.5 and 9.1 points with the majority of models calling for 8+ points. 

Anunoby’s struggles from the free-throw line cost anyone backing his Over 16.5 points in Game 2. He went 4 for 8 from the stripe and finished with 14 points in the loss to Atlanta. OG entered that contest coming off an ankle injury suffered in the opener, finishing 4 for 9 from the field after going 6 for 9 on FGAs and 4 of 4 from the FT line with 18 points in Game 1. With the series swinging to Atlanta, the Knicks need his contributions and Anunoby doesn’t shrink on the road, averaging almost two points more as a visitor this season. His Game 3 projections sit between 16.4 and 17.1 points and his points prop is as high as 16.5 O/U at many books.

Mitchell had just nine potential assists in Game 1 and finished with four dimes. That metric spiked to 13.0 potential assists in Game 2, manifesting in five actual assists. Mitchell, who averages just shy of six dimes per game, uses his gravity as a scorer to manufacture space for others. The Raps will have to pick their poison, opting to hedge up hard and take away Mitchell’s outside threat but making him more of a distributor in the process. Game projections give Mitchell between 4.7 and 5.4 assists in Game 3.  

Edwards is playing thoroughly despite his knee pain, as he always does in the postseason. He grabbed nine rebounds in Game 1 and then 10 in Game 2, fitting a long-time playoffs pattern. As the Timberwolves reached the Western Conference Finals in each of the last two springs, Edwards crashed the glass more and more aggressively.