NBA Picks

The Cavs would surely prefer to hang onto the No.4 seed and avoid the Celtics-Knicks side of the East bracket, but they’re 8-2 SU in their last 10 games and heavy favorites to breeze past the Grizzlies tonight.

I’m riding with a Cleveland team that’s won the last six meetings with Memphis, and there’s every reason to expect that streak to continue here given the Grizzlies’ recent form. Three of the hosts’ past four losses have come by a margin of 15+ points, and Cedric Coward and GG Jackson both missed yesterday’s defeat in Milwaukee.

Olivier-Maxence Prosper has scored 18.6 points per game over the last 5 games while at home, 8.6 higher than he's scored overall this season at home.. With respect to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 2nd-most aggressive team in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.. The 5th-speediest tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Spurs have been an elite bounce-back team, going 6-0 following their last six losses, with each win coming by at least nine points, including a 40-point humiliation of the 76ers in Philly. They’re also in elite form, ranking second in net rating over their last 10 games. Meanwhile, the Sixers tend to collapse in defeat, with 12 of their last 13 losses coming by double digits.
 
 

De’Aaron Fox’s points prop has been one of the most fascinating markets all season—it really comes down to whether you catch him in a game where he plays full minutes and sees fourth-quarter usage in a competitive setting, rather than a Spurs blowout. He scored just 14 points against the Nuggets in his last outing, but that game showed the underlying opportunity—19 field goal attempts across 40 minutes. Even with the game going to overtime, it highlights how mispriced his props can be in competitive environments. This matchup against the 76ers has a strong chance to stay close, which is key. Beyond game script, there’s also a tactical angle to like. Joel Embiid typically plays a deep drop in pick-and-roll coverage, prioritizing rim protection—especially when paired against a player like Wembanyama. That coverage should leave Fox with clean mid-range looks throughout the game, which is exactly where he’s most comfortable.

Nikola Jokic is thriving lately as a facilitator. He’s cashed the Over in dimes in six of his last seven contests. The Joker is averaging 11.2 assists at home this season, and he’s also averaging a ridiculous 12.7 dimes across his last 10 appearances. The Portland Trail Blazers are around the middle of the pack in assists allowed.

Johnson is putting up 14.8 points while shooting a crazy good 48.7% from 3-point range over his last 13 games, which includes him putting up 19 points in a recent meeting against Portland.

Just a week after pummeling the Lakers by 40+ points at home, the Thunder go back on the road to see them again, but this time without Luka Doncic or Austin Reaves. With the No. 1 seed in the West still to play for, OKC will be eager to handle business. OKC is 3-0 ATS against the Lakers this season and just covered a 24.5-point spread against the Jazz on Sunday.