Atlanta Hawks

Picks

Each of the last two games of the series have been decided by one point, and four of six head-to-head matchups in 2025-26 have been decided by three points or fewer. Game 4 will be a dog fight, but I expect Brunson to lead the Knicks to a crucial victory. A win for New York makes this a best of three series with home court advantage, but a loss means the Knicks will need to win three straight. After coming up just shy in Games 2 and 3, I expect the Knicks to play with urgency and get the job done on the road before coming back to the Garden.

This hasn’t been a high-scoring series, but the point totals keep creeping down, and we can find value in the Over. Three of six games between these teams have gone for at least 215 points, and two more went for 213. Game 3 totaled 217 points despite two of New York’s starters combining for just two points. I’ll bet the Over as New York gets back on track offensively.

Josh Hart finished with just two points on 1-of-9 shooting in Game 3, and he’s got to be more productive. Improved scoring from New York’s starters is crucial, as the Knicks have lost two straight games by just one point. Hart scored 12+ in 18 of 33 road games in the regular season, and he’s due for a bounce-back performance in a critical Game 4.

Mikal Bridges has scored 21 total points on 8-of-22 shooting through the first three games of this series. That’s dreadful for a guy who was brought in to be the missing piece on a contending team. Bridges logged only 21 minutes in Game 3 in favor of Miles McBride (15 points), and I expect the benching and poor performance to motivate him in Saturday’s high-stakes matchup.