Kevin Durant’s points prop is currently priced at -106 for over 24.5 points, and that’s a number I’m comfortable attacking. In my view, this line should be closer to -160. Simply put, the Lakers don’t have a defender who can consistently slow Durant down. LeBron James may draw the matchup at times, but at 40 years old, he can’t guard Durant for an entire game. Los Angeles also concedes midrange jumpers to limit defensive rotations—a strategy that works against most players, but not against one of the league’s most efficient midrange scorers. With the Rockets coming off a stretch of tough losses and the national TV spotlight of Christmas Day, this sets up as a spot where Durant puts the team on his back.
The Lakers have dealt with recurring injuries over the last two weeks, as all of Austin Reaves, Deandre Ayton, Rui Hachimura and Luka Doncic missed at least one game. Los Angeles is expected to be healthy, and I won’t bet against the trio of LeBron, Luka and Reaves. With Houston struggling and Los Angeles in a great, get-right spot, I’ll take the plus-money odds on LA winning this one outright.
Total PicksHOU 218, LAL 90
stakay125 is #1 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (16-4-0) and +10600 units on the season.
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PaullyWallnuts is #6 on picking games that Houston is in with a record of (14-9-0) and +6750 units on the season.
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