Amen Thompson’s points prop is set at 16.5 with the Over priced at -102, and that’s a number worth attacking, as I make it much closer to -165. Thompson simply isn’t a priority for the Spurs’ defense, and while Victor Wembanyama’s rim protection might seem like a concern for a player who scores off cuts and out of the dunker spot, it could actually benefit him. Wembanyama’s help will be focused on containing Kevin Durant and Alperen Åžengün, which should force extra passes — often to a cutter like Thompson. Houston should also look to push the pace in transition and beat Wembanyama down the floor, another area where Thompson thrives. All of that sets up well for him to clear this number.
Along with his offensive performances, Wemby has snatched rebounding efforts of nine, 10 and 10 during the Spurs’ three-game winning streak. However, all three results stayed below his rebounding totals of 10.5 O/U. Tonight’s matchup with Houston sees that rebounding total dip to as low as 8.5 O/U against a Houston team that ranks among the top rebounding squads in the NBA. While the Rockets do a fine job cleaning the glass, this adjustment feel much too large. Player projections for game list Wembanyama’s rebounding totals between nine and 12.2, with my number coming out to 10.2 rebounds. That should have the Over 8.5 rebounds priced around -180 instead of the -140 at bet365.
Total PicksSA 197, HOU 132
yardduke is #1 on picking games that San Antonio is in with a record of (26-11-0) and +12350 units on the season.
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