Anthony Davis has averaged 28.2 points and 14.3 rebounds in his last six matchups with Jaren Jackson Jr., compared to 22.5 and 6.3 from the Grizzlies big man. With the Mavs playing better with Davis (+1.6 net rating in nine regular-season games) than the Grizzlies have been of late (+1.1 net rating in the last month of the season), trusting Davis to again win this matchup fits in line with expecting this game to be within two buckets.
The matchup against Memphis is a tough one for shot attempts from downtown; when the Grizzlies are on their home court, the opposition's starting PFs have totaled the 2nd-least 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (3.0). The Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games when playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists). Anthony Davis will not hold the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium generally lowers player production in all stat categories.
Ja Morant has been called for 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games playing at home, 0.9 more than he's been called for over the course of the season at home. The Grizzlies have been the 10th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 25 games while playing at home. The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a tough one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 2.9 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA).
The Mavericks rank as the 3rd-most efficient shooting team in the league when playing away from home this year. This year when they are the visiting team, the other team's starting PGs have logged 22.8 points per game (2nd-most in the NBA) vs. the Memphis Grizzlies, creating a positive matchup for offensive production. The 7th-fastest pace away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from competing against the speediest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Memphis Grizzlies). Klay Thompson has sunk 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games, 7.9% more than he's put through the net in all games this year.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has sunk 50.2% of his 3-point attempts over the last 15 games at home, 11.5% higher than he's converted in all games this season when playing at home. Jaren Jackson Jr. has averaged 35.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.1 more than he's averaged in all games this season. The matchup vs. the Mavericks is a favorable one for field goal attempts; the other team's starting PFs have tallied the most FG attempts per game in the league this year (16.0). The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year. The Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to boost opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Ja Morant has averaged 7.9 assists per game while playing at home this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile -- among the NBA's leaders in this category. Ja Morant has tallied 35.3 minutes per game over the last 9 games, 4.9 more than he's tallied over the course of the year. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year. The Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to boost opportunities for the Grizzlies. The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama has totaled 4.6 assists per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 1.8 more than he's totaled over the course of the season at home. Santi Aldama has been on the court for 31.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 5.6 more than he's been on the court for over the course of the year at home. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year. The Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to boost opportunities for the Grizzlies. The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
P.J. Washington has tallied 1.7 offensive rebounds per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 85th percentile -- one of the best in the league by this standard. Out of all players in the league, P.J. Washington comes in at the 88th percentile for playing time, averaging a colossal 32.2 minutes per game this year. The 7th-fastest pace away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from competing against the speediest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Memphis Grizzlies).
Desmond Bane has tallied 5.4 defensive boards per game this year at home, placing him among the league's best by this metric recently: 91st percentile. Out of all players in the league, Desmond Bane slots into the 83rd percentile for playing time, tallying a whopping 31.0 minutes per game when playing at home this year. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year. The Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to boost opportunities for the Grizzlies. The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Among all players in the league, Daniel Gafford registers in the 98th percentile for field goal ability with a great 69.3% rate this year. The Mavericks rank as the 3rd-most efficient shooting team in the league when playing away from home this year. The 7th-fastest pace away offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Mavericks. The Dallas Mavericks will likely see a spike in opportunities in this game from competing against the speediest pace-of-play team in the league this year (the Memphis Grizzlies). Daniel Gafford has sunk 3.1 foul shots per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.9 higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this year while playing away from home.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has tallied 5.8 defensive boards per game over the last 5 games when playing at home, 1.2 higher than he's tallied overall this year at home. Jaren Jackson Jr. has averaged 35.0 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 5.1 more than he's averaged in all games this season. The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year. The Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games away from their home court, which ought to boost opportunities for the Grizzlies. The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Total PicksDAL 401, MEM 170
eliminator26 is #10 on picking games that Memphis are in with a record of (11-2-0) and +9650 units on the season.
PSL21 is #2 on picking games that Memphis are in with a record of (50-32-0) and +12200 units on the season.
accxmass is #3 on picking games that Memphis are in with a record of (46-23-0) and +11300 units on the season.
pureporkchop is #4 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (50-32-0) and +8550 units on the season.
ciarajo is #5 on picking games that Memphis are in with a record of (39-27-0) and +10950 units on the season.
roxwawy20 is #6 on picking games that Memphis are in with a record of (48-30-3) and +10250 units on the season.
buffalo2007 is #7 on picking games that Memphis are in with a record of (43-31-1) and +9950 units on the season.
Cartrevic is #9 on picking games that Memphis are in with a record of (48-32-0) and +9700 units on the season.
Gary64 is #9 on picking games that Dallas are in with a record of (45-32-0) and +7150 units on the season.