When the Minnesota Timberwolves dispatched the Los Angeles Lakers with ease in last year’s first round, it was largely a credit to how easily their defense mitigated the Lakers’ post game. Removing rim runners from Luka Doncic’s peripheral vision reduces Doncic’s overall effectiveness.
Luka Doncic is trading at -115 for the Over 31.5 points, and that’s a number worth attacking given that I price it closer to -170. This sets up as a rivalry game between the Lakers and the Timberwolves, and with the Lakers off yesterday and another off day tomorrow, there’s little reason to expect any limitation on Doncic’s workload. In what should be a competitive matchup, 38+ minutes is very much in play. Minnesota does have an excellent defender in Jaden McDaniels to throw at Doncic, but this bet is more about volume than efficiency. Doncic is always willing to take on a heavy scoring load, and that tendency only increases when things get personal. He has a well-documented rivalry with Rudy Gobert, and whenever he gets Gobert switched onto him in isolation, the shot is almost always going up. In those moments, Doncic has a habit of turning into a flamethrower from deep.
Total PicksMIN 195, LAL 150
Coloneljim is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (30-15-0) and +11250 units on the season.
mrplus96 is #1 on picking games that L.A. Lakers are in with a record of (39-23-0) and +15800 units on the season.
sandhog1 is #10 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (32-27-0) and +6450 units on the season.
vupham is #10 on picking games that L.A. Lakers are in with a record of (26-8-0) and +8300 units on the season.
greengrocer is #2 on picking games that L.A. Lakers are in with a record of (15-6-0) and +12650 units on the season.
KCWins is #2 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (39-21-0) and +10600 units on the season.
kaitospapa is #3 on picking games that L.A. Lakers are in with a record of (41-21-0) and +12650 units on the season.
Alexmaldonado is #4 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (28-21-0) and +9600 units on the season.
reddog6008 is #6 on picking games that L.A. Lakers are in with a record of (35-23-1) and +8900 units on the season.
m18123 is #9 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (35-27-0) and +6550 units on the season.
klavsgr is #9 on picking games that L.A. Lakers are in with a record of (37-20-1) and +8650 units on the season.