College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Mara went 3 for 4 and knocked down 5 of 7 free throws for 11 points over 29 minutes in their first meeting in late January and followed that with a season-high 24 points on February 8. Since that game, the Michigan Wolverines center has tallied double figures in six of eight games. He picks up points in the paint and second-chance buckets – two soft spots for OSU’s defense - and is projected for 11+ points.

It is never a good time to play the Florida Gators. It is a particularly bad time to play the defending champions when you are already tired. For the third straight day, the Kentucky Wildcats tip off the action at the SEC Tournament, while Florida has had six full days off.

The Badgers have the offensive chops to go toe-to-toe with the Illini’s offense and their 3-point prowess can quickly close gaps and keep this game tight. Game models have this as close as a five-point margin. Wisconsin is 10-4 ATS as an underdog against Big Ten opponents the past two seasons.

At the wheel of the Badgers offense is point guard Nick Boyd, who sparks his team with his ability to collapse a defense with his dribble penetration and kick out to open shooters. Nick Boyd averaged 4.5 assists in Big Ten action and upped that distribution to 5.4 dimes in the final 10 games of conference play. The Wisconsin Badgers senior kept those connections coming with nine assists in yesterday’s victory. Wisconsin has a high assist-to-FGM rate and Boyd’s projections flirt with five dimes, providing nice plus-money value on this passing prop.

More than 132.5 points have been scored in 29 of St. John’s 32 total games this season and in 19 of Seton Hall’s last 27.

Cluff scored 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting against Northwestern, which was his busiest offensive effort since a slim win over the Cornhuskers in February. He averaged just 5.5 FGAs in Big Ten play but his nine shots versus Nebraska tied for his second most shots in the regular season. He made five buckets and went 2 for 7 from the line for 12 points. Cluff was a focal point of the Purdue Boilermakers’ offense Thursday and enters Friday with projections as high as 12+ points.

Virginia still plays at a methodical pace that naturally suppresses totals. Even without the extreme Tony Bennett tempo, they’re comfortable draining the shot clock and allowing almost no transition chances. That forces opponents into a half-court offense, which is where Miami struggles. Miami leans heavily on post scoring, but that’s exactly where Virginia excels defensively, ranking in the 98th percentile against direct post-ups and 97th percentile against bigs cutting to the rim. This could be ugly.

The Cyclones destroyed their first two opponents in the conference tournament by 49 and 22 points. They are in a revenge spot after losing 73-57 at Arizona last week. Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic, and Joshua Jefferson, combined to shoot just 10-40 from the field, including 3-17 from deep, in that game. All three were All-Big 12 selections so expect them to play much better tonight. Especially since this should feel like a home game with Iowa State fans turning the T-Mobile center into "Hilton South." On defense, ISU has the size to clog the paint and force Arizona into tough outside shots while the backcourt creates turnovers with on-ball pressure.

Georgetown’s tournament run may seem random, but keep in mind that the Hoyas have exceeded expectations outside of Capital One Arena all year, ranking fourth in Haslametrics’ Away From Home grade.

They covered both regular-season matchups with ease (average cover margin of 11 points) and have routinely played up to their level of competition, ranking 15th nationally in EvanMiya’s Opponent Adjust metric.

This line is inflated due to Dan Hurley’s storied past March successes, but this year’s UConn team has been one of the least-profitable teams against the spread (12-20 ATS) and isn’t up to par with past Husky squads.