College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

If the Hawkeyes can control tempo, control the glass, and generate easy points off turnovers, they will crash the Final Four.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the fifth-slowest team in the country. The Illinois Fighting Illini rank in the bottom quarter. No wonder this game’s total is 138.5. Taking the 1H Under protects you against second-half chaos inherent to a tournament setting.

The Boilermakers are a finesse offensive team that will melt against the superior athleticism and physicality of the Wildcats. Purdue's backcourt of Braden Smith and Foster Loyer aren't quick enough to hang with Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries. Meanwhile, Trey Kaufman-Renn won't get open looks on the interior against an Arizona squad that ranks second in the country in 2-point defense (44.2%). On offense, the Wildcats love to attack the basket with a whopping 73.6% of their shots coming inside the arc. They'll torch a brutal Purdue defense that ranks 334th in opponent 2PT% since the start of January.

The Tennessee Voltunteers have a heavily-reliant rim offense with post-ups stealing the show. The Vols had the highest frequency of direct post-ups in the SEC this season, and have leaned on it more in the NCAA Tournament. The problem for the Vols is that Michigan’s big lineup ranks in the 85th percentile of college basketball defensively against post-ups. 

Mara passing prowess is an underrated part of the 7-footer’s game. He has excellent court vision, either hitting dump downs on a high-low set or kicking out to open shooters. The Volunteers have a big interior defense and swarm with double teams every time the ball enters the paint. Mara won’t have much time to make a move, so he’ll look to pack the paint and find a release pass to an open shooter. He finished the Alabama game with four dimes and has dished out 15 total assists in the NCAA Tournament.

Tarris Reed Jr has carried UConn in the tourney. He dropped 20 points against Michigan State's sturdy frontcourt in the Sweet 16 and had an incredible 31-point, 27-rebound performance in the first round. The senior center has seen an expanded offensive role in big games, dropping 17+ points in UConn's previous two contests against Big East champ St. John's. Duke center Patrick Ngongba II is dealing with a lingering foot injury that has limited him to 13 and 17 ineffective minutes over the last two rounds. With Ngongba clearly less than full strength, expect Reed to take advantage. 

Dame Sarr has emerged as one of the top defenders in the country and his playing time has surged down the stretch. The wing is averaging 28.7 minutes and 4.7 rebounds per game over the last 15 contests. Sarr uses his 6-foot-8 frame and athleticism to defend multiple positions and compete on the boards. He pulled down 14 boards over the last two rounds and UConn has struggled on the glass against top-tier rebounding teams.