College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

March is defined by your performance in the clutch, and Illinois has lost six of its seven games this season decided by five or fewer points. The common denominator in those games was an inability to get stops, especially against talented guards. VCU has those in spades.

VCU has gone 17-1 outright since its season was on the brink, not to mention winning the Atlantic-10 Tournament and going 3-1 ATS in the postseason. Of course the Rams came back from 14 down late in the second half of the first round; they are relentless.

Nebraska ran through Troy in part thanks to a 26-10 advantage in points in the paint, to be expected against a mid-major opponent. The Vanderbilt Commodores will not yield such chances, one of the best interior defenses in the SEC.

Vaughn Weems is primed to have a big game against the Flames. He’s averaging 16.6 points over his last eight games, and has made seven baskets at the rim in each of his last two.

High Point is aggressive in terms of jumping the passing lanes and generating points in transition. The Panthers also operate at a very high tempo, which could be problematic for an Arkansas team that has little depth due to injuries to Karter Knox and Nick Pringle.

High Point is 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo while ranking 175th in opponent 2PT% (51.6%) despite playing an extremely weak schedule. The Panthers were torched by Wisconsin's guards in the first round and were fortunate the Badgers didn't have any offensive threats in their frontcourt to expose High Point's lack of size. Arkansas forward Trevon Brazile can do exactly that. Brazile is coming off a game where he scored 19 points despite shooting just 1-7 from deep. He has scored 16+ points in five of his last six contests and we know Calipari trusts him in big games with how he played in last year's tourney run.

The Boilermakers have the highest rated offense in KenPom history and shoot a sizzling 38.5% from deep. They'll torch a Miami defense that ranks 319th in opponent 3PT% (37.3%) since the start of the new year. That said, Miami can exploit Purdue's man-to-man defense through pick-and-roll action and scoring in the paint. The Canes rank 34th in the country in 2PT% (56.9%) while the Boilermakers are 340th in 2-point defense (56.9%) since January 1. With both offenses perfectly built to exploit the other team's defensive weakness, take the Over. Especially with KenPom and Bart Torvik projecting 153 and 154 points respectively.

Paths for Kentucky exist, sure. But they involve things that haven't happened much this season. One of those is scoring in transition, which Iowa State allows at one of the lowest frequencies. This feels like an ugly game and a cover for the Cyclones. 

Illinois State also has an efficient shutdown defense that doesn't foul. The Redbirds have won outright two of the last three times they were underdogs and will threaten Wake.

In a close game, which this sets up to be, there are factors I weigh heavier than others. The Jayhawks check those boxes. First, Kansas is the better 3-point shooting team while St. John’s outside touch is as consistent as the weather man. Second, Darryn Peterson is the best player on the floor and proved his worth by exploding my surefire KU 1H TT Under in just 47 seconds Friday. And finally, Kansas hits its free throws. In a physical game with two teams that attack, fouls will mount. The Jayhawks are 35th in FT percentage and those freebies add up.

Peterson had 28 points with just under six minutes left Friday and then didn’t touch the ball for the remainder of the game. He still set a season high in attempts, with 24 FGAs over 37 minutes and was efficient with 11 makes – four coming from beyond the arc. He finished with just two made free throws but I expect him to pick up points from the foul line against the Johnnies. He had attempted at least six FTs in each of the previous four game. I’m not going to get cute, I’ll play the best player on the floor Over his points prop.

Virginia does a good job essentially stopping all that Tennessee wants to run. The Vols are a heavy post frequency team and UVA ranks in the 97th percentile nationally against post ups. They also slow down some other core tenants of the Tennessee offense like premeriter cuts. Meanwhile on the other side, you don’t have to worry about UVA scoring early buckets against an elite transition defens

The Iowa Hawkeyes could not clear this team total against Clemson despite four free throws in the final 30 seconds. A game with only 54 possessions will cash every Under. There will be more possessions against the Florida Gators — No. 29 in pace this season — but Iowa will still try to slow it down, its best hope at keeping this close.

Arizona has been blowing teams out all season, defeating 12 high-major opponents by 13+ points. The Aggies beat Villanova by outrebounding them 37-27 and scoring 42 points in the paint. They won't do that against Arizona who is significantly bigger and is sixth in the country in rebounding rate. The Wildcats also rank second in 2-point defense (43.5%) and will stifle an Aggies attack that relies heavily on interior scoring. On the other side of the floor, Utah State needs to create chaos by forcing turnovers but the Wildcats have broken superior press defenses like Houston and Iowa State. 

Trent Perry is a constant green light on offense. The ball goes in. It doesn’t come back out. He can get to the rim and knock it down from outside. He’s scored 15 or more in three straight outings and has attempted 10 or more FGAs in all of those games. 

Both UCLA and UConn thrive in the halfcourt, playing with patience that ticks deep into the shot clock. There’s a ton of motion, away screens and off-ball movement, which takes time to set up. Neither is an explosive 3-point attack, nor do they thrive on fastbreaks or tempo. Sub-140 totals were 1-5 Over/Under through the first two days of the NCAA Tournament. Going back to last year’s Big Dance, sub-140 totals have gone Under in 13 of 18 games.

Texas Tech puts a chokehold on Alabama in transition with a national best defense in that area and will keep the Tide from scoring regularly in the halfcourt. Nate Oats schemes well enough for a long portion of the game, but eventually the damn breaks and Alabama can’t defend well enough on the other end.