College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

I suspect that New Mexico will take away the actions that Tulsa does best in the halfcourt. One thing that looms massively large is the Lobos' ranking in the 95th percentile in defending inside actions. This is one of the core tenets of the Tulsa offense, and they run it extremely efficiently. Disrupting it is effectively disrupting all that Tulsa wants to do.

Everything about this matchup suggests a rock fight with projections ranging from 131 to 134 points. Stanford has poor ball movement with Ebuka Okoria the only player capable of creating his own shot. The Cardinal are coming off a 64-63 loss to Pitt and have been in their share of ugly games — including a 47-40 loss to Notre Dame. They tend to get sucked into whatever pace their opponent plays and WVU ranks 363rd in adjusted tempo. The Mountaineers are 17th in the country in adjusted defense and excel at defending the rim. That said, they're awful on offense sitting outside the top 300 in turnover rate and 3PT% (30.7%) since January.

The Bluejays offense thrives in transition and won’t hesitate to push the ball on the fast break but is especially good at finding long-range looks from pick-and-pop sets and dribble jumpers. Rutgers has problems patrolling the perimeter, allowing teams to pick up almost 36% of their total points from 3-point range. Against the Big Ten’s more aggressive 3-point attacks, Rutgers got roasted from distance and allowed at least 80 points against the likes of Wisconsin, Illinois, Nebraska and Indiana.

There’s a term in playoff hockey that “every hit is an investment” and the same goes for UConn’s screen-heavy playbook. Illinois’ size will get spread out and those bigs will clash with constant contact as they chase UConn around for 30 seconds a possession. The Illini may be able to absorb that for 30 or 35 minutes. But like a boxer landing body blow after body blow, it will take its toll in the championship rounds.

I’ll be damned if Alex Karaban is going to lay another egg in the Final Four. Connecticut’s veteran forward looked like the “Monstars” had stolen his talent for most of that matchup with Duke (Go watch "Space Jam" if you don't get that reference). He was just 1 for 6 for the night but did hit a massive 3-pointer late that helped set the table for UConn’s incredible buzzer beater. His points prop is back at 12.5 O/U – the same total versus the Blue Devils’ top-ranked defense – but he takes on a much lighter task in Illinois on both ends of the floor. Karaban has put up 17, 22 and 27 in the three games prior and projections sit between 14.6 and 16.3 points on Saturday. 

Aday Mara’s minutes took a hit versus Tennessee. Foul trouble and UM’s blowout of the Vols limited the 7-footer to just 18 minutes. While he scored 11 points, he failed to register a single assist for the first time since November 19. Mara is an underrated passer and has shown his playmaking ability with 15 total dimes through the first three games. Saturday’s Final Four matchup with Arizona will be played at a much quicker tempo than the Tennessee game and Mara will be a valuable conduit for the Wolverines as an inside-out passer to the perimeter. The Wildcats will collapse in the key and he’ll kick out to UM’s shooters. Mara is also a great passer from the high post, stretching the Arizona defense and hitting cutters to the rim. Projections sit as high as 3.1 assists.