College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Flemings leads the Houston Cougars in scoring and has stepped up in big games. In 23 contests against unranked opponents, he's averaging 30.2 mpg with 13.9 ppg on 10.9 FGA. However, he's logging 34.7 mpg with 22.8 ppg on 17.0 FGA in 10 games against ranked foes. Flemings scored more than 20 points in seven of those 10 games, and even when he went under that mark, he still took 17+ field goal attempts. With Flemings consistently looking for his own shot more in these situations, he should clear his points prop against the up-tempo Wildcats.

These teams are rated extremely close, but there are a few reasons to back the Aztecs as short underdogs. The Aztecs lost a close game at elevation in Logan in January. However, they hammered the Aggies 89-72 in the rematch two weeks ago.

Utah State is highly efficient inside the arc, but SDSU ranks 13th in the country in opponent 2PT% (45.8%). That interior defense has been even better lately with center Magoon Gwath finally looking healthy. In addition, the Aggies are already an NCAA Tournament lock, while SDSU is on the bubble and needs this more.

I also have more faith in Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher than Jerrod Calhoun who might have one foot out the door.

St. John’s has been careening toward the Under, going 1-8 O/U in its last nine games. That can happen when you’re dominant defensively (second in adjusted efficiency in that span per BartTorvik) but struggle offensively (89th). 

Dan Hurley feasted on the Red Storm’s lack of a true point guard and outside shooting in the last matchup, holding them to just 40 points on 20% shooting from the floor. 

He has a strong track record of turning games into slow, defensive-oriented battles in March — the Huskies have cashed the Under in 14 of their last 18 postseason games. 

This game should see plenty of points scored. Prairie View vs. Southern both rank Top 40 in tempo and Top 50 in FT rate. Both programs thrive on forcing turnovers and turning those into easy buckets. They also live at the charity stripe, attempting a combined 114 in their two meetings.

Akron averages nearly 18 points per game off turnovers, but the Toledo Rockets take care of the basketball with a solid 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio, which should slow the pace and limit scoring chances. 

I'm more impressed by Kennesaw State beating No. 2 seed Sam Houston State in the semis than I am with Louisiana Tech barely holding off Missouri State, who went 8-12 in conference play. The Bulldogs have the top-rated defense in Conference-USA but rank second-last in offensive efficiency due to the highest turnover rate and worst 3PT% (31.5%).

The Owls' up-tempo attack puts up points, and their perimeter shooting will be able to crack a Bulldogs D that is vulnerable at the arc. Meanwhile, their defense ranks second in the conference in opponent 2PT% (47.7%). Back the more balanced team to win.

Duke has leaned much more into dribble creation over the last two games, nearly doubling its normal volume of those sets against Clemson. That approach is unlikely to hold up against Virginia, which allows just 0.80 points per possession on off-the-dribble actions.

These teams split their regular season meetings, but it's UC Irvine that comes into this game in better form and with an elite defense. Those factors are more than enough for me to take the Anteaters to win the Big West Conference title tonight.

We have a strong sample size of these teams playing each other, and it indicates a low-scoring game. The three regular-season meetings averaged just 126.7 total points in regulation.

California Baptist has a tremendous defense (28th in adjusted deficiency since February 1, per BartTorvik) but a poor offense (222nd). Dominique Daniels (23.2 ppg) is a bonafide star, but he has little help and is the only Lancer with an OBPR above +0.6. 

Utah Valley has put the brakes on offensively, going from a top-75 tempo team over the first half of the season to outside the top 190 over the last month.