College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Home court is key to this quarterfinal contest. Not only can Dayton keep its offense rolling – shooting 52% on the road in the first two games – but it can cool Illinois State’s shooting. The Redhawks have knocked down 23 3-pointers in their first two NIT tilts but do see their success from deep drop on the road (32.7%). If Illinois State can’t consistently make those looks, long rebounds fuel the Flyers’ transition attack. A bigger Dayton team will clean the glass and put ISU on its heels. The Redbirds struggle to slow transition offense and 315th at protecting the rim. 

Auburn has been overvalued by Vegas all season and has gone just 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games. Starting forward KeShawn Murphy has opted out of the NIT and the Tigers didn't come close to covering in their first two tournament games. They already had depth issues and the loss of Murphy exacerbates that. Since the start of January, Auburn ranks 356th in opponent 3PT% (39.5%) and 266th in opponent FT rate (38.2%). That provides a path to success for Nevada who shoots 36.2% from deep and gets to the line at the fifth-highest rate in the country.

All the major projections have Purdue putting up 80+ points in this matchup with Texas. This game could very well turn into a shootout, with the Longhorns not having the answers on defense. Texas will struggle to defend Purdue’s pick and roll and UT’s drop coverage is only going to give the Boilermakers’ shooters more space. On top of that, the Horns struggle to defend the rim, giving up plenty of points in the paint. If and when they get their heels above the arc, the Boilermakers will attack in the interior. 

Since the start of January, the Boilermakers rank 334th in 2-point defense (56.7%) and 276th in 3-point defense (36.1%). On Sunday, Miami torched them for 40 points in the first half but stopped cutting to the rim and moving without the ball after the break. That was likely due to fatigue since Miami was running a six-man rotation and had played 36 hours earlier. That won't be the case against Texas who enjoyed four days off after upsetting Gonzaga. The Longhorns are 15th in the country in adjusted offense and have four players averaging more than 13.0 ppg. Forwards Dailyn Swain (17.4 ppg, 54.5 FG%) and Matas Vokietaitis (15.7 ppg, 61.9 FG%) excel at scoring inside where Purdue is vulnerable.

This spread is deflated by the Iowa Hawkeyes so effectively slowing down games in the NCAA Tournament, but the Nebraska Cornhuskers are used to that shift. Nebraska plays at a rather slow pace, in the first place, and it split the season series with Iowa in two plodding games.

If anything, the Illinois Fighting Illini should be frustrated they drew the South Regional. It was always going to be an unfair spot for the No. 3 seed facing Houston. If granting the Cougars some homecourt advantage, suddenly this spread should be at least -4.

The Fighting Illini need to swing the ball and spread out Houston’s swarming defense. Illinois has a stretch forward in freshman David Mirkovic, who has an excellent nose for finding the open shooter. He’s dished out three or more assists in four straight games and in eight of his last 11 outings. Mirkovic is also a threat on the offensive glass, crashing from outside and collecting second chances. He’ll grab his share of misses and dish out to open hands against UH. The Over 2.5 assists is providing excellent return at plus-money.

The Blue Devils throw up roadblocks on transition attacks and suck them into slower paces, living life in the halfcourt – not a strength of the Red Storm. St. John’s shot surprisingly well from deep in the first week, but that heat will quickly cool, especially against Duke’s perimeter patrol. Duke limits opponents’ offensive rebounds and is No. 2 in defensive FT rate, which takes away two areas of offense for St. John’s. The Red Storm depend on getting to the foul line and second-chance points. Offensively, the Blue Devils are reluctant to run and turn down the tempo, sapping seconds off the shot clock which limits touches for the Johnnies.

Duke will likely still be without starting point guard Caleb Foster for the Sweet 16. Fill-in Cayden Boozer struggles with ball pressure — which St. John’s brings consistently and relentlessly — meaning the offensive generation will fall on Cameron Boozer’s shoulders more than ever. 

Call him Atlas — he leads the team in assist rate (26%) and will have increased facilitating opportunities in a pace-up spot against a Red Storm team ranking 69th in adjusted tempo. 

Boozer is averaging 5.0 assists across his last seven games and forecasts to have at least an average day given the bump in volume due to usage rate and pace. 

Alex Karaban knocked down four triples in each of the Huskies’ first two tournament games and could get forced to the perimeter by MSU’s defense. The Spartans protect the paint but have been soft stopping teams from the perimeter. Louisville hit 13 triples but missed their share of wide-open looks as well. UConn’s ball movement can find the open spot-up shooter. This game could come down to which team can get hot from beyond the arc and so far Karaban has been just that.

Coen Carr has been huge for Michigan State in the tournament. Not only has the high flyer put up points but he’s also been big on the boards. Carr corralled 10 rebounds in the win over Louisville and has recorded six or more boards in 15 of his last 23 games. Both teams protect the paint, so points won’t come easy. Look for Carr to clean the defensive glass and also snatch some offensive rebounds as well.