College Basketball Picks

The VCU Rams notched 99 points in that last clash with the Dayton Flyers, fueling that offensive outburst with eight 3-pointers and 24 points off turnovers. The Rams aren’t shy to let it fly from outside, especially against a Dayton defense that struggles to protect the perimeter. The Flyers can counter those shortcomings with an offense that’s really clicking at the right time. They’re shooting 49% from the field the past five games, including knocking down an average of 9.2 triples in that stretch. Game models range from 150 to 151 combined points, topping the 148.5-point Over/Under.

This is a conference tournament battle between the best offense in the OVC in Tennessee State and the top defense in Tennessee Martin. I trust the Tigers ability to force turnovers and limit second chances on the glass more than I do the Skyhawks ability to take care of the ball and hit outside shots. Especially since the Skyhawks rank 11th in the conference in both TO rate and 3PT% (29.8%) during league play. The Tigers have owned this rivalry lately, winning the last four games, including a 67-42 beatdown on the road last weekend. They are also well rested while the Skyhawks barely edged Eastern Illinois last night and are just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five.

Despite a 30-0 record, Miami is still getting generous lines from oddsmakers and  is 5-2 ATS in its last seven. That includes a 16-point win against Ohio on February 13. The Bobcats are 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games which includes six losses by double digits. The Redhawks have been significantly better on both ends of the floor. They rank sixth in the country in eFG% (59.2%) and 75th in defensive efficiency. By comparison, Ohio ranks 209th in eFG% (50.7%) and 260th in defensive efficiency. The Bobcats are especially bad at defending the arc (327th in opponent 3PT%) and Miami shoots a sizzling 37.7% from deep on the road.

Seton Hall guard AJ Staton-McCray is second on the team with 12.1 ppg and he could be in line for more shots tonight with leading scorer Adam Clark questionable due to a hamstring injury. Staton-McCray has scored at least 12 points in five of his last six games, headlined by a 20-point performance against UConn. He also dropped 16 points on 7-13 shooting when the Pirates previously faced St. John's in January. The Johnnies have a strong defense but they play at a blazing-fast pace which will lead to more possessions and scoring opportunities for the Pirates.