College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Alvey averaged 16.7 points in conference play and has scored 17 or more in seven of his last 11 games heading into the First Four, upping his output to 19.6 points in that span. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound forward is a problem for a smaller Prairie View A&M squad. The Panthers have couple forwards that run around 6-foot-9, but they’re outmuscled and outclassed against Alvey. He ravaged Colgate on the blocks for 30 points in the Patriot League tournament and now faces a Prairie View A&M defense allowing more than 36 PITP per game (321st).

Wake Forest hasn’t been a double-digit favorite since their non-conference schedule and went 3-4 ATS with spreads that large. The Demon Deacons score only 78.8 ppg and shoot 45.0% from the field, not numbers that lend themselves to blowout wins. The Midshipmen play solid defense, and that will be enough for Navy to cover this number.

KSU coming off a 1-for-23 shooting night from deep and allowing 16 ppg off turnovers against a defense allowing 28% shooting from downtown at home doesn’t inspire confidence, especially against an offense capable of scoring on Kent State’s 81 ppg defense.

Dayton thrives in chaotic environments, but Bradley’s discipline reduces those opportunities. If the Braves also capitalize on their rebounding edge for extra possessions and convert from deep, they can grind out a close win.

Miami (Ohio) wins games. Period. It took everyone’s best during MAC competition – especially in those final few games of conference play. Much like how those foes were incentivized to end the RedHawks’ streak, Travis Steele’s squad is now motivated to prove it belongs in the Big Dance. It’ll give SMU everything it’s got in Dayton. And speaking of which, SMU stinks away from home. The Mustangs were 5-9 SU away from Dallas this season.

Brock Harding averages 5.7 assists and leads the TCU fast break, with those possessions fueled by creating turnovers. Texas Christian’s offense thrives on ball movement, with one of the higher assist-to-FGM rates in the country (63rd), and Harding dished out five or more dimes in 14 of the final 19 regular season games. Round 1 projections flirt with six dimes.

Texas Christian enters the NCAA playing its best basketball of the season, with its only loss in the past month to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament (6-1 ATS). The Horned Frogs can poke a soft spot for OSU, which coughs the ball up too much. TCU is terrific at flipping those mistakes into buckets, forcing almost 14 turnovers for 16 POTOV per game. 

Defensively, UL matches up well against South Florida. The Bulls thrive on causing chaos, picking up points off turnovers and crashing the glass for offensive putbacks. The Cardinals love to run and are one of the better rebounding teams in the country and don’t allow many second-chance buckets. The Bulls sell out to stop interior scoring but can get torched by outside shooting. When UL has all its weapons, the Cardinals knock down the fifth most triples in the country and shoot almost 36% from deep.

Wisconsin fires up the third most 3-pointers in the country and hits its share too, pushing its average points north of 80. High Point is also trigger happy from distance, knocking down nine triples and scoring 86.5 points per game – 10th most in the land. The Panthers also like to push the pace, sitting Top 50 in tempo, which is just fine for the Badgers’ backcourt duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. They combined for 51 points per game over three Big Ten tournament contests.

Cameron Boozer dominated his way to an average of 22.5 ppg, and the books have decided to set his points prop right at that average. Against an overwhelmed Siena squad, we should expect Boozer to have an above-average game.

The Blue Devils have a high team total of 82.5 and should find room to work inside against a Saints defense ranking 211th in near-proximity attempt rate allowed (Haslametrics). 

The Blue Devils will likely be without two starters in point guard Caleb Foster and center Patrick Ngongba. Those are no small losses as they combine for 19.2 ppg while ranking third (Ngongba) and fourth (Foster) on the team in OBPR (combined +8.99). Enter Boozer to fill the scoring void.

The Tar Heels aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, and they leave far too many points at the foul line. I question UNC’s motivations in March. VCU, however, has been fighting for its life for the past two months after sitting on the bubble until the A-10 tournament win. Virginia Commonwealth attacks on every level: drawing fouls, crashing the glass, and playing tight defense. The Rams won’t be intimidated by UNC’s pedigree either, having played a tough non-conference slate.

Howard’s opponents draw a free throw rate on average at 38.5%, which is one of the highest in the field. Michigan hasn’t really played any team this season with a number that high, but you have to legitimately worry about the twin-tower combo of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mary fouling out the entire Bison frontcourt. 

Saint Louis has a few edges over UGA, starting with the fact they actually play defense. The Billikens also run deep, able to keep fresh capable scorers on the floor. And most importantly, SLU can light it up from long range. Georgia’s 3-point shooting runs hot and cold while Saint Louis shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc and averages over 10 triples an outing. Game models have this as one of the closest contests of the Round of 64 with forecasts between one and two points for UGA. 

In three games, Gonzaga put up transition rates of 20%, 16%, and 21% along with points per possession numbers that were quite literally at the top of the sport in two of those matchups. Enter Oweh. One of the best transition scorers in the SEC, who has been responsible for a large chunk of the Cats’ transition scores this year.  

Hofstra checks a lot of boxes when it comes to mid-majors giving power conference foes fits. The Pride rebound well, defend the rim, shoot the 3-ball, and have game-breaking scorer in Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG). Alabama's defense is still soft and will struggle to keep Hofstra from the offensive glass. Game models vary, with one calling for a 14-point margin but others down to 11 and even 7 points.