College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

West Virginia faced a brutal Big 12 schedule that included 14 Quad I games, which has hurt its defensive stats. However, against Quad II opponents like Creighton, West Virginia has performed well on defense, allowing only 49% shooting on two-pointers over its last five games against comparable teams. The Mountaineers should also control the boards. Creighton has a rebounding rate below 30% on both ends and ranks No. 284 nationally on the offensive glass. Take West Virginia to stand tall in Las Vegas. 

Karaban has averaged 17.8 points per game in this NCAA Tournament, clearing this prop in three of four games. He was held to just 2-of-10 from the field against Duke despite playing 38 minutes, but it is worth noting Karaban still attempted six 3-pointers.

There’s a term in playoff hockey that “every hit is an investment” and the same goes for UConn’s screen-heavy playbook. Illinois’ size will get spread out and those bigs will clash with constant contact as they chase UConn around for 30 seconds a possession. The Illini may be able to absorb that for 30 or 35 minutes. But like a boxer landing body blow after body blow, it will take its toll in the championship rounds.

This prop is juiced to -190 but still has value with how often Mara has gone Over this number. The 7-foot-3 center has blocked at least two shots in 30 of his last 34 games. The only games where he went below this number came against teams that take a high volume of threes or play small-ball lineups which forced Mara off the floor. The Wildcats attack the rim at one of the highest rates in the country and that combined with their speedy tempo leads to plenty of blocks. They are 292nd in the country in opponent blocks per game.

Lendeborg leads Michigan with 15.2 ppg on 52/37/82 shooting splits. That average is actually suppressed since he tends to play fewer minutes and take less shots in blowout wins — which Michigan has had plenty of this year. He has carried the scoring load more in the NCAA Tournament where he has dropped 27, 23, and 25 points over the last three rounds. While the Wildcats have an elite defense, they play at a fast tempo which leads to higher stats across the board. Lendeborg has also stepped up against the best frontcourts and defenses he's faced. He's fresh off a 27-point performance against Tennessee and also scored 20+ points against Duke, Purdue, Gonzaga, and Michigan State (twice).