College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Tulsa has the slight analytics edge and shoots significantly better, ranking 23rd in the country in eFG% (56%) while Wichita State is 253rd (49.7%). These conference foes split the regular season series before Wichita State prevailed 81-68 in the conference tourney. Tulsa was exhausted after a triple OT victory the previous night and leading scorer David Green injured his wrist after 12 minutes. Green hasn't played since and is questionable tonight but Tulsa has since adjusted with Romad Dean impressing as a starter. Moving Dean into the lineup has thinned the bench so I'm reluctant to lay the full game spread. However, Tulsa is 15-2 at home and should get off to a fast start and cover the first half.

New Mexico hasn't been dominant enough for me to lay 10.5 points here. Since the start of February, the Lobos have six losses with two wins coming down to the wire.  The Hawks are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games with the only loss coming in the A-10 semifinal against VCU who impressed in the NCAA Tourney. They are coming off road wins at Cal and Colorado State which proved they could perform at elevation. Anchored by Justice Ajogbor, the Hawks are 56th in the country in adjusted defense while ranking 32nd in opponent eFG% (47.5%). That scrappy defense should help them cover this double-digit spread.

Home court is key to this quarterfinal contest. Not only can Dayton keep its offense rolling – shooting 52% on the road in the first two games – but it can cool Illinois State’s shooting. The Redhawks have knocked down 23 3-pointers in their first two NIT tilts but do see their success from deep drop on the road (32.7%). If Illinois State can’t consistently make those looks, long rebounds fuel the Flyers’ transition attack. A bigger Dayton team will clean the glass and put ISU on its heels. The Redbirds struggle to slow transition offense and 315th at protecting the rim. 

Since the start of January, the Boilermakers rank 334th in 2-point defense (56.7%) and 276th in 3-point defense (36.1%). On Sunday, Miami torched them for 40 points in the first half but stopped cutting to the rim and moving without the ball after the break. That was likely due to fatigue since Miami was running a six-man rotation and had played 36 hours earlier. That won't be the case against Texas who enjoyed four days off after upsetting Gonzaga. The Longhorns are 15th in the country in adjusted offense and have four players averaging more than 13.0 ppg. Forwards Dailyn Swain (17.4 ppg, 54.5 FG%) and Matas Vokietaitis (15.7 ppg, 61.9 FG%) excel at scoring inside where Purdue is vulnerable.

The Fighting Illini need to swing the ball and spread out Houston’s swarming defense. Illinois has a stretch forward in freshman David Mirkovic, who has an excellent nose for finding the open shooter. He’s dished out three or more assists in four straight games and in eight of his last 11 outings. Mirkovic is also a threat on the offensive glass, crashing from outside and collecting second chances. He’ll grab his share of misses and dish out to open hands against UH. The Over 2.5 assists is providing excellent return at plus-money.

Ngongba returned for 13 big minutes in the Round of 32, finishing with four points, four rebounds and four assists. The extended break between rounds now has him healthy and ready for more minutes, as a crucial part of beating St. John’s size. The 6-foot-11 center is great inside but is valuable as a stretch forward operating out of the high post and creating space for Cameron Boozer under the rim. He’s an excellent passer with two or more assists in 11 of the last 14 games and projections lean toward two dimes as his minutes tick up.

Bryce Hopkins isn’t known as a 3-point threat but the Red Storm senior forward is feeling it from deep in the postseason. He knocked down six triples in the win over Kansas and has made at least two 3-pointers in each of his last three games. The Blue Devils interior defense is great, especially when they go zone, so the Johnnies have to stretch Duke out with bigs on the perimeter. There is a massive pricing discrepancy in Hopkins’ 3-point props, with some books listed Over 1.5 at -135. Given his newfound confidence from deep, I’ll take this plus-money payout. 

Alex Karaban knocked down four triples in each of the Huskies’ first two tournament games and could get forced to the perimeter by MSU’s defense. The Spartans protect the paint but have been soft stopping teams from the perimeter. Louisville hit 13 triples but missed their share of wide-open looks as well. UConn’s ball movement can find the open spot-up shooter. This game could come down to which team can get hot from beyond the arc and so far Karaban has been just that.

Coen Carr has been huge for Michigan State in the tournament. Not only has the high flyer put up points but he’s also been big on the boards. Carr corralled 10 rebounds in the win over Louisville and has recorded six or more boards in 15 of his last 23 games. Both teams protect the paint, so points won’t come easy. Look for Carr to clean the defensive glass and also snatch some offensive rebounds as well.