College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

On top of the MIA offensive contributions, the loss of Sebastian Rancik and Bangot Dak instantly shrinks Colorado’s interior. The Buffaloes lose two shot changers in the paint and their top rebounders. The Sooners aren’t the biggest team but are feisty on the glass, hauling in 10 offensive rebounds and generating 14.2 second-chance points per game. Perhaps the biggest edge is Oklahoma’s desire to do well at the Crown. Head coach Porter Moser is using the Sooners’ NCAA Tournament snub as motivation, fueling what was one of the hottest teams in the country (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS last 11 games).

Since the start of February, Minnesota is 19th in the country in eFG% (57.4%) but just 321st in opponent eFG% (56.1%). Over the same period, Baylor ranks 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency but is 349th in opponent eFG% (57.8%). Minnesota attempts a lot of threes while the Bears struggle to defend the perimeter. Meanwhile, Baylor's ability to attack inside the arc will exploit the Gophers poor interior D. While there are some concerns that Minnesota's sluggish tempo will lead to fewer possessions, teams played fast and loose in this tourney last year.

There’s a term in playoff hockey that “every hit is an investment” and the same goes for UConn’s screen-heavy playbook. Illinois’ size will get spread out and those bigs will clash with constant contact as they chase UConn around for 30 seconds a possession. The Illini may be able to absorb that for 30 or 35 minutes. But like a boxer landing body blow after body blow, it will take its toll in the championship rounds.

I’ll be damned if Alex Karaban is going to lay another egg in the Final Four. Connecticut’s veteran forward looked like the “Monstars” had stolen his talent for most of that matchup with Duke (Go watch "Space Jam" if you don't get that reference). He was just 1 for 6 for the night but did hit a massive 3-pointer late that helped set the table for UConn’s incredible buzzer beater. His points prop is back at 12.5 O/U – the same total versus the Blue Devils’ top-ranked defense – but he takes on a much lighter task in Illinois on both ends of the floor. Karaban has put up 17, 22 and 27 in the three games prior and projections sit between 14.6 and 16.3 points on Saturday. 

Aday Mara’s minutes took a hit versus Tennessee. Foul trouble and UM’s blowout of the Vols limited the 7-footer to just 18 minutes. While he scored 11 points, he failed to register a single assist for the first time since November 19. Mara is an underrated passer and has shown his playmaking ability with 15 total dimes through the first three games. Saturday’s Final Four matchup with Arizona will be played at a much quicker tempo than the Tennessee game and Mara will be a valuable conduit for the Wolverines as an inside-out passer to the perimeter. The Wildcats will collapse in the key and he’ll kick out to UM’s shooters. Mara is also a great passer from the high post, stretching the Arizona defense and hitting cutters to the rim. Projections sit as high as 3.1 assists.