College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Analytics sites are projecting between 152 and 156 points in this Sweet 16 matchup between two teams with highly-efficient offenses and vulnerable defenses. Purdue has the highest rated offense in KenPom history while Texas ranks just 81st in adjusted defense — easily the worst rating of any team left in the tourney. The Boilermakers shoot 38.8% from deep and will torch a Longhorns squad that struggles to defend the arc. That said, Purdue struggles defensively, ranking just 334th in opponent 2PT% (56.7%) and 276th in opponent 3PT% (36.1%) since the start of January. The Longhorns have a highly-efficient offense and excel at attacking inside with Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis. 

All the major projections have Purdue putting up 80+ points in this matchup with Texas. This game could very well turn into a shootout, with the Longhorns not having the answers on defense. Texas will struggle to defend Purdue’s pick and roll and UT’s drop coverage is only going to give the Boilermakers’ shooters more space. On top of that, the Horns struggle to defend the rim, giving up plenty of points in the paint. If and when they get their heels above the arc, the Boilermakers will attack in the interior. 

The Huskers defend well but they don't disrupt passing lanes or pressure ball-handlers. That has led to them ranking 346th in the country in opponent assists per field goal made (60.9%). That makes this a favorable matchup for Hawkeyes lead guard Bennett Stirtz. The senior is a workhorse who usually logs 40 minutes and has one of the highest usage rates in the country. The All-Big Ten selection averages 4.5 assists per game and is coming off a 5-assist performance against Florida's elite defense. 

The Huskers attempt threes at the 12th highest rate in the country while. They also rank 361st in opponent 3-point rate since their defense tries to force opponents into tough perimeter shots. A barrage of 3-point attempts means longer rebounds which tend to get to the guards and wings. That's a crucial reason why Nebraska big man Berke Buyuktuncel has grabbed fewer than 5.5 boards in nine of his last 11 games. 
In addition, Iowa sits near the bottom of the country in adjusted tempo and a sluggish pace means fewer possessions and fewer rebounding opportunities.

With both teams boasting highly-efficient, up-tempo attacks, we'll see plenty of points in this game. The question is who will fill up the hoop for Arkansas? Leading scorer Darius Acuff Jr. will be matched up against defensive stopper Jaden Bradley and Arizona's elite interior defense will prevent the Razorbacks from attacking the rim at their usual frequency. That means more shots for guard Meleek Thomas who thrives at midrange and knocks down 2.3 threes per game at a 42% clip. The five-star freshman averages 15.6 ppg and has scored 19+ points in back-to-back games. He also erupted for 29 points against Mississippi and 30 against Mizzu earlier this month.

Houston doesn’t allow dribble-drive into the paint, but Ivisic holds a massive size edge over the Coogs interior and will offer a post-up option on the blocks, giving him some looks at the rim. He’s also a threat on the offensive glass, who’s good for couple second-chance points. Ivisic isn’t shy about shooting from distance either, attempting four or more triples in all but one of his last 18 games. He finished 2 for 5 from 3-point range in the victory over VCU, finishing with 14 points. He’s posted double figures in both NCAA Tournament tilts and before a bumpy end to Big Ten play, he was put up 10+ most nights in February. Projections vary with a high of 9+ points in the Sweet 16.

After being somewhat passive in the opening two games of the tournament, including just nine points in the win over Texas A&M, Kingston Flemings will rise to the occasion in this head-to-head comparison with Illinois star frosh Keaton Wagler. The Illini aren’t the most aggressive defense, opting to drop back into the paint, and Flemings will enjoy plenty of space from outside. He’s been able to find another gear against top-tier opponents and game projections sit as high as 18+ points.

The Blue Devils have been one of the worst teams in the tournament at taking care of the basketball and hitting outside shots. Much of Duke’s offensive output has come via second-chance opportunities, something St. John’s can limit.

The Blue Devils throw up roadblocks on transition attacks and suck them into slower paces, living life in the halfcourt – not a strength of the Red Storm. St. John’s shot surprisingly well from deep in the first week, but that heat will quickly cool, especially against Duke’s perimeter patrol. Duke limits opponents’ offensive rebounds and is No. 2 in defensive FT rate, which takes away two areas of offense for St. John’s. The Red Storm depend on getting to the foul line and second-chance points. Offensively, the Blue Devils are reluctant to run and turn down the tempo, sapping seconds off the shot clock which limits touches for the Johnnies.

With a total north of 170 points and two teams that fire up a Costco-pack of field goals, rebounds are ripe for the picking. So I go to Michigan forward Morez Johnson Jr. He’s snatched up 18 total rebounds over two tourney tilts and has soared on the boards against the Big Ten’s more active outside offenses, posting double figures on the glass versus the likes of Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. Johnson’s strength and nose for the basketball have his projections flirting with 10 boards.

This may be a “trade 3’s for 2’s” philosophy for the Tide if they can’t get to the rim and game script says Alabama (+9) is playing from behind, putting even more emphasis on its 3-point production. Philon hasn’t attempted fewer than seven shots from beyond the arc in five straight games, including a collective 5 for 15 from distance in the NCAA Tournament. He’s knocked down three or more triples in 11 of his last 17 outings and we could get his highest 3-point volume of the season versus UM.

Jaxon Kohler could lose minutes against UConn with Tom Izzo forced to shuffle his lineup and go smaller, in order to counter Alex Karaban. Kohler can't keep pace with Karaban's off-ball activity and it seems like a more athletic Coen Carr is a better matchup. The Spartans have a proven rim defender in Carson Cooper, who will go straight up with Taris Reed. That will leave Kohler as his backup, mixing up the usual two-big rotation. Kohler's been more effective as a 3-point threat for MSU but won't be in the flow of the game if he and Cooper alternate minutes. His point total is as low as 9.5 but you can shop for 10.5 with the Under asking -130.

Karaban's inside-out production is peaking at the perfect time and fits best against this Spartans defense. Michigan State forces everything to the outside but has been susceptible to solid shooters. Karaban has been that, making 8 of 17 from beyond the arc in the tournament. He was very active against UCLA, which runs a similar rim-protecting scheme. Projections sit closer to 15 points for Karaban.