College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

The Under has gone 7-2-1 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups, and these are the top-scoring defenses in America East: UMBC allows 67.3 points per game, with Vermont at 68.4. The Retrievers haven’t let an opponent touch 70 points in 13 straight, and the Catamounts just once in the last nine.

Morez Johnson Jr. leads the Michigan Wolverines in interior scoring (9.3 PITP) and snatches 2.5 offensive rebounds (2.7 second-chance points). But he’s much more than a “back to the basket player”. Johnson’s size and athleticism have him finishing fast breaks and UM will push the pace against a winded Wisconsin team playing its third game in as many days. 

It is difficult to figure out what game plan the Vanderbilt Commodores could deploy to upset the Florida Gators. Perhaps Vanderbilt’s most reliable pieces of offense — free-throw shooting and forcing opponents into turnovers — will both struggle against Florida.

The Howard Bison have dominated two previous matchups with North Carolina Central this season and are 10-0-0 against the spead in their last 10. 

St. John’s has been careening toward the Under, going 1-8 O/U in its last nine games. That can happen when you’re dominant defensively (second in adjusted efficiency in that span per BartTorvik) but struggle offensively (89th). 

Dan Hurley feasted on the Red Storm’s lack of a true point guard and outside shooting in the last matchup, holding them to just 40 points on 20% shooting from the floor. 

He has a strong track record of turning games into slow, defensive-oriented battles in March — the Huskies have cashed the Under in 14 of their last 18 postseason games. 

This game should see plenty of points scored. Prairie View vs. Southern both rank Top 40 in tempo and Top 50 in FT rate.

Both programs thrive on forcing turnovers and turning those into easy buckets. They also live at the charity stripe, attempting a combined 114 in their two meetings.

Dontae Horne is capable of getting hot at any time, dropping 46 on Southern in the last meeting. The Jaguars counter that with an offense ranked 31st in 3-point accuracy since the start of February. 

Both teams topped 80 points each time they played, and I expect more of the same.

Akron averages nearly 18 points per game off turnovers, but the Toledo Rockets take care of the basketball with a solid 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio, which should slow the pace and limit scoring chances. 

Toledo’s defense is also solid, ranking near the top of the conference. Akron lives beyond the arc, and not getting its typical 11+ made threes will hurt its scoring.

This one will be a physical, half-court battle, and I’m taking the Under.