College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

The Blue Devils have been one of the worst teams in the tournament at taking care of the basketball and hitting outside shots. Much of Duke’s offensive output has come via second-chance opportunities, something St. John’s can limit.

The Blue Devils throw up roadblocks on transition attacks and suck them into slower paces, living life in the halfcourt – not a strength of the Red Storm. St. John’s shot surprisingly well from deep in the first week, but that heat will quickly cool, especially against Duke’s perimeter patrol. Duke limits opponents’ offensive rebounds and is No. 2 in defensive FT rate, which takes away two areas of offense for St. John’s. The Red Storm depend on getting to the foul line and second-chance points. Offensively, the Blue Devils are reluctant to run and turn down the tempo, sapping seconds off the shot clock which limits touches for the Johnnies.

With a total north of 170 points and two teams that fire up a Costco-pack of field goals, rebounds are ripe for the picking. So I go to Michigan forward Morez Johnson Jr. He’s snatched up 18 total rebounds over two tourney tilts and has soared on the boards against the Big Ten’s more active outside offenses, posting double figures on the glass versus the likes of Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. Johnson’s strength and nose for the basketball have his projections flirting with 10 boards.

This may be a “trade 3’s for 2’s” philosophy for the Tide if they can’t get to the rim and game script says Alabama (+9) is playing from behind, putting even more emphasis on its 3-point production. Philon hasn’t attempted fewer than seven shots from beyond the arc in five straight games, including a collective 5 for 15 from distance in the NCAA Tournament. He’s knocked down three or more triples in 11 of his last 17 outings and we could get his highest 3-point volume of the season versus UM.

UConn guard Silas Demary Jr. is just two weeks removed from a high ankle sprain that sidelined him in the opening round of the tourney. He toughed it out in the second round but finished with just two points on 0-2 shooting. Demary clearly isn't 100% and he won't be able to slash to the hoop or create separation like he usually does. He isn't even a consistent scorer at full strength, finishing with less than 10 points in six of his last eight games. He'll find it tough to get buckets against the Spartans who play at a slow tempo and rank 13th in the country in adjusted defense. 

Michigan State's defensive scheme packs the paint and limit high-percentage interior shots. However, that strategy tends to leave perimeter shooters open which is why MSU ranks 345th in the country in opponent 3-point rate. Dan Hurley will try to exploit that with his outside shooters. Unfortunately Solo Ball has been wildly inconsistent this season and freshman Braylon Mullins is in a shooting slump. That's why I'm backing senior Alex Karaban who is shooting 39.4% from deep and is one of Hurley's most reliable players in big games. The stretch forward has been red-hot in the tourney, knocking down four treys in back-to-back games. 

J.P. Estrella logged only 20 minutes against Virginia but still walked away with five rebounds in the win. The game prior, he pulled down 10 boards in a Round of 64 squash of Miami (Ohio). Iowa State is much smaller without Jefferson, losing his team-high 7.4 rebounds an outing. The 6-foot-11 Estrella has collected at least seven rebounds in seven of his last 12 outings overall.

Momcilovic gone 7 for 16 in the tournament so far and has made three or more triples in seven of his last nine games. With Jefferson out, the Cyclones will play him at power forward which really stresses the Volunteers defense, as the Vols want to crowd the paint with big bodies. He struck for 17 or more points in four of his last five outings and with Jefferson out, there are offensive touches up for grabs. Player projections sit as high as 18+ points from the “Serbian Sniper” in the Sweet 16.

The Iowa Hawkeyes are the fifth-slowest team in the country. The Illinois Fighting Illini rank in the bottom quarter. No wonder this game’s total is 138.5. Taking the 1H Under protects you against second-half chaos inherent to a tournament setting.

The Hawkeyes can be exploited by the inside-out game and the last time Mirkovic faced Iowa, he handed out five helpers. Both of these teams want to play a slower tempo and live in the halfcourt, unlike the frenzied pressure the Cougars threw at Illinois. That allows for ball movement and Mirkovic to thrive as a passer. Before Thursday, he had recorded three or more assists in four straight games and Elite Eight projections sit between 2.5 and 3.6 dimes which gives great value at plus-money.