Michigan vs Arizona Prop Picks & Best Bets: March Madness Final Four
Free College Basketball Expert and Computer Picks For Every Game April 3, 2026
The Sooners picked up steam down the stretch, going 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 games with wins against NCAA Tournament teams Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas, and Texas A&M.
Meanwhile, the Bears didn't come close to the bubble and are 4-7 in their last 11. Both teams have efficient attacks, but the Bears have the worst defense, ranking 334th in the country in opponent eFG% (56.7%) since the start of February.
The Bears are also weak on the interior, while Oklahoma has quality bigs in Tae Davis, Derrion Reid, and Mohamed Wague.
Karaban has averaged 17.8 points per game in this NCAA Tournament, clearing this prop in three of four games. He was held to just 2-of-10 from the field against Duke despite playing 38 minutes, but it is worth noting Karaban still attempted six 3-pointers.
There’s a term in playoff hockey that “every hit is an investment” and the same goes for UConn’s screen-heavy playbook. Illinois’ size will get spread out and those bigs will clash with constant contact as they chase UConn around for 30 seconds a possession. The Illini may be able to absorb that for 30 or 35 minutes. But like a boxer landing body blow after body blow, it will take its toll in the championship rounds.
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The Wildcats force a 95th percentile ball-screen rate and protect the rim at an elite level, taking away easy twos and putting pressure on shooters. With Yaxel likely drawing primary attention on-ball, Burnett becomes a key outlet on swing actions, and he’s gone over this number in three of his last five games.
Nobody attacks the rim very efficiently against Michigan outside an elite few of teams because they can’t stand up to the physicality of the Wolverines. Arizona is one of those exceptions. So is Duke. And using the Blue Devils as a proxy, they posted over 1 point per possession on big cuts and rolls in their win against Michigan earlier this year. I think the Wildcats can do something similar, and Bradley leads all of those actions.
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