College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Brock Harding averages 5.7 assists and leads the TCU fast break, with those possessions fueled by creating turnovers. Texas Christian’s offense thrives on ball movement, with one of the higher assist-to-FGM rates in the country (63rd), and Harding dished out five or more dimes in 14 of the final 19 regular season games. Round 1 projections flirt with six dimes.

Texas Christian enters the NCAA playing its best basketball of the season, with its only loss in the past month to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament (6-1 ATS). The Horned Frogs can poke a soft spot for OSU, which coughs the ball up too much. TCU is terrific at flipping those mistakes into buckets, forcing almost 14 turnovers for 16 POTOV per game. 

Long misses lead to long rebounds, and long rebounds lead to points in transition. Expect plenty of each piece of that thought as the Troy Trojans hoist a bounty of 3-pointers early on Thursday: Troy takes 3-pointers at an inordinately high rate despite making less than a third of them, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers rank top-10 in the country in both forcing 3-point attempts and in opponents missing those 3-pointers.

Hadley is an underrated 3-point shooter, hitting at 45.6%. He’s made two or more triples in six of his last nine games and faces a poor perimeter defense from USF.

The 6-foot-7 senior is a tough matchup for USF’s backcourt, which tops out at 6-foot-5. J'Vonne Hadley can bully smaller defenders and blow by bigger ones, if the Bulls switch out a forward on him. He’s able to score in various way, either finishing the fastbreak, getting to the rim, or knocking down looks from beyond the arc. Hadley can also scoop up misses for putbacks on the offensive glass. He’s averaged 15 points over the past 11 games and while his usage spikes with Brown out, he still scored plenty of points when the freshman stud was in the lineup.

The Panthers are at their best when they can force turnovers and get to the line. However, Wisconsin turns the ball over at the third-lowest rate in the country and does a good job defending without fouling. But the main reason I'm fading the Panthers is because they rank just 346th in strength of schedule per ESPN, easily the weakest SOS of any team in the tourney that isn't a No. 16 seed. Meanwhile, the Badgers have proven themselves against elite competition, racking up five wins against teams currently ranked in the top 10 at KenPom.

Wisconsin fires up the third most 3-pointers in the country and hits its share too, pushing its average points north of 80. High Point is also trigger happy from distance, knocking down nine triples and scoring 86.5 points per game – 10th most in the land. The Panthers also like to push the pace, sitting Top 50 in tempo, which is just fine for the Badgers’ backcourt duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. They combined for 51 points per game over three Big Ten tournament contests.

When it comes to monster favorites in the Big Dance, those powerful programs live up to the hype. Since 1998, favorites of -28 or higher are 13-9 ATS. Duke’s plan for Round 1 is to build a lead, sit the starters, and begin looking ahead to the Round of 32. That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils can’t also cover this spread. Going back to the non-conference slate, the Dukies laid spreads of 30+ and creamed those mid-major foes behind a bench scoring more than 36 points per game. 

Cameron Boozer dominated his way to an average of 22.5 ppg, and the books have decided to set his points prop right at that average. Against an overwhelmed Siena squad, we should expect Boozer to have an above-average game.

McNeese thrives in slowing down a game and turning rebounds and free throws into points. That is more a reflection of Southland deficiencies than McNeese strengths, and the Commodores lack those deficiencies.

North Dakota State doesn’t have the same size inside that MSU’s Big Ten foes boast, topping out at 6-foot-9 in the starting lineup. That means there less deterrent for Carr to attack the rim. He’s scored 12 or more points in eight of the past 14 games and projections sit between 13 and 14 points on Thursday night.

The Razorbacks put up a whopping 89.9 ppg thanks to a highly-efficient offense and blistering pace. With superstar freshman Darius Acuff Jr. running the point, Arkansas turns the ball over at the lowest rate in the country while ranking eighth in 3PT% (38.9%). Hawaii powered to the Big West championship thanks to its impressive defensive play. But while mid-major teams might struggle to score against Hawaii's imposing size, Arkansas won't be fazed. The Rainbow Warriors don't have the athleticism to match up with Arkansas and their speedy tempo will ensure plenty of possessions in this game.

The VCU Rams have been playing on a razor’s edge for two months. Living life on that edge can end badly, and in time it will, but it should provide some intensity against the North Carolina Tar Heels, particularly as they are without their best player and have lost their last two games.

The Tar Heels aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, and they leave far too many points at the foul line. I question UNC’s motivations in March. VCU, however, has been fighting for its life for the past two months after sitting on the bubble until the A-10 tournament win. Virginia Commonwealth attacks on every level: drawing fouls, crashing the glass, and playing tight defense. The Rams won’t be intimidated by UNC’s pedigree either, having played a tough non-conference slate.

Howard’s opponents draw a free throw rate on average at 38.5%, which is one of the highest in the field. Michigan hasn’t really played any team this season with a number that high, but you have to legitimately worry about the twin-tower combo of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara fouling out the entire Bison frontcourt. 

Dybantsa leads the country in scoring with 25.3 ppg. He reached another level after BYU lost Richie Saunders to a season-ending injury, clearing 27.5 points in seven games since February. While Dybantsa went just below this number with 26 points in his last contest, that came against Houston's elite defense. He'll have an easier team scoring against Texas who sit outside the top 300 in opponent FT rate and opponent 3PT% (36%). Dybantsa can score at all three levels and averages a whopping 8.4 FTA per game. His improved perimeter shooting and ability to draw fouls will lead to a big game here.

It is easier to speed up a slow team than it is to slow down a fast team. With depth and ball pressure, Texas A&M should speed up this first-round matchup. And with both teams showing quality from beyond the arc, any amount of hot shooting could turn pace into a barnburner.

This matchup screams pace. Both teams rank Top 50 in tempo and thrive in transition offensively, while struggling to defend it. That’s the perfect recipe for a track meet. Expect constant push, quick shots, and minimal resistance in the open floor. That’s exactly the environment you want when backing an Over this high.

Saint Louis has a few edges over UGA, starting with the fact they actually play defense. The Billikens also run deep, able to keep fresh capable scorers on the floor. And most importantly, SLU can light it up from long range. Georgia’s 3-point shooting runs hot and cold while Saint Louis shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc and averages over 10 triples an outing. Game models have this as one of the closest contests of the Round of 64 with forecasts between one and two points for UGA. 

Kentucky’s transition offense is elite, scoring an absurd 1.44 points per play (99th percentile). That’s where Oweh thrives as he’s responsible for team leading 7% of Kentucky’s transition scoring. Santa Clara, meanwhile, allows 1.28 points per play in transition (one of the worst nationally). That’s a problem against Kentucky as a whole, but it’s a big issue against one of the best transition scorers in the SEC. 

Try to find somewhere for Akron to go on offense. Transition where they are overly reliant? Texas Tech clamps that at the 99th percentile. Other key tenets of their offense, like attack and kick actions, are also shut down at the 90th percentile. I don’t know how Akron hangs because I don’t know how the Zips score. 

Hofstra checks a lot of boxes when it comes to mid-majors giving power conference foes fits. The Pride rebound well, defend the rim, shoot the 3-ball, and have game-breaking scorer in Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG). Alabama's defense is still soft and will struggle to keep Hofstra from the offensive glass. Game models vary, with one calling for a 14-point margin but others down to 11 and even 7 points.