College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

The Badgers have the offensive chops to go toe-to-toe with the Illini’s offense and their 3-point prowess can quickly close gaps and keep this game tight. Game models have this as close as a five-point margin. Wisconsin is 10-4 ATS as an underdog against Big Ten opponents the past two seasons.

At the wheel of the Badgers offense is point guard Nick Boyd, who sparks his team with his ability to collapse a defense with his dribble penetration and kick out to open shooters. Nick Boyd averaged 4.5 assists in Big Ten action and upped that distribution to 5.4 dimes in the final 10 games of conference play. The Wisconsin Badgers senior kept those connections coming with nine assists in yesterday’s victory. Wisconsin has a high assist-to-FGM rate and Boyd’s projections flirt with five dimes, providing nice plus-money value on this passing prop.

Both the Tennesee Volunteers and the Vanderbilt Commodores lean on their defenses more than their offenses, but this total is simply two buckets too low, particularly given the tournament setting.

More than 132.5 points have been scored in 29 of St. John’s 32 total games this season and in 19 of Seton Hall’s last 27.

Oscar Cluff scored 19 points on 7-of-10 shooting against Northwestern, which was his busiest offensive effort since a slim win over the Cornhuskers in February. He averaged just 5.5 FGAs in Big Ten play but his nine shots versus Nebraska tied for his second most shots in the regular season. He made five buckets and went 2 for 7 from the line for 12 points. Cluff was a focal point of the Purdue Boilermakers’ offense Thursday and enters Friday with projections as high as 12+ points.

Virginia still plays at a methodical pace that naturally suppresses totals. Even without the extreme Tony Bennett tempo, they’re comfortable draining the shot clock and allowing almost no transition chances.

That forces opponents into a half-court offense, which is where Miami struggles. Miami leans heavily on post scoring, but that’s exactly where Virginia excels defensively, ranking in the 98th percentile against direct post-ups and 97th percentile against bigs cutting to the rim. This could be ugly.

The Cyclones defeated their first two conference tournament opponents by 49 and 22 points. They are in a revenge spot after losing 73-57 at Arizona last week. Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic, and Joshua Jefferson combined to shoot just 10-40 from the field, including 3-17 from deep, in that game.

All three were All-Big 12 selections, so expect them to play much better tonight. Especially since this should feel like a home game with Iowa State fans turning the T-Mobile center into "Hilton South." On defense, ISU has the size to clog the paint and force Arizona into tough outside shots while the backcourt creates turnovers with on-ball pressure.

Georgetown’s tournament run may seem random, but keep in mind that the Hoyas have exceeded expectations outside of Capital One Arena all year, ranking fourth in Haslametrics’ Away From Home grade.

They covered both regular-season matchups with ease (average cover margin of 11 points) and have routinely played up to their level of competition, ranking 15th nationally in EvanMiya’s Opponent Adjust metric.

This line is inflated due to Dan Hurley’s storied past March successes, but this year’s UConn team has been one of the least-profitable teams against the spread (12-20 ATS) and isn’t up to par with past Husky squads.

Skyy Clark left late into last night’s game with a calf injury. While it wasn’t serious, he’s been slowed by leg issues (hamstring) recently and back-to-back games isn’t helping him get healthy. I see a drop in minutes and production in what will be a low-scoring game in Chicago.

Since that embarrassing beatdown in East Lansing, the UCLA Bruins have rattled off six wins in their last seven outings (6-1 ATS), including a strong showing over Rutgers in their tournament opener. UCLA topped the Big Ten in net rating in those final five games and showed it could run with the best in the conference, knocking off Nebraska and Illinois. On top of being a great two-way team, UCLA does the little things at win games – or at least cover the spread. The Bruins hit their free throws, take care of the ball, and cash in from 3-point range.

Cameron Boozer should operate as Duke’s primary point forward in what projects to be a half-court game. Clemson’s defense is vulnerable to perimeter cuts, allowing about 0.90 points per possession on those actions, that’s something Duke attacks extremely well. Boozer is typically the facilitator when those cuts develop. Add the situational angle that backup point guard Cayden Boozer was barely playable yesterday, which should push even more creation through Cameron.

Emmanuel Sharp is Houston's best perimeter shooter, but has been misfiring lately. He went 1-6 from deep last night and also went 1-6 from downtown against Kansas last month.

Sharp has hit fewer than 2.5 threes in five of his last six games, with the only exception coming against Baylor, which ranks 275th in the country in 3-point defense (35.5%). Meanwhile, the Jayhawks rank 10th in adjusted defense and 13th in opponent 3PT% (30.2%).

Sharp thrives on corner threes, but Kansas does a great job funneling shooters above the break, where he's far less accurate.