College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Analytics sites are projecting between 152 and 156 points in this Sweet 16 matchup between two teams with highly-efficient offenses and vulnerable defenses. Purdue has the highest rated offense in KenPom history while Texas ranks just 81st in adjusted defense — easily the worst rating of any team left in the tourney. The Boilermakers shoot 38.8% from deep and will torch a Longhorns squad that struggles to defend the arc. That said, Purdue struggles defensively, ranking just 334th in opponent 2PT% (56.7%) and 276th in opponent 3PT% (36.1%) since the start of January. The Longhorns have a highly-efficient offense and excel at attacking inside with Dailyn Swain and Matas Vokietaitis. 

All the major projections have Purdue putting up 80+ points in this matchup with Texas. This game could very well turn into a shootout, with the Longhorns not having the answers on defense. Texas will struggle to defend Purdue’s pick and roll and UT’s drop coverage is only going to give the Boilermakers’ shooters more space. On top of that, the Horns struggle to defend the rim, giving up plenty of points in the paint. If and when they get their heels above the arc, the Boilermakers will attack in the interior. 

Bennett Stirtz rarely comes off the floor and has been a one-man machine for the Hawkeyes. Stirtz leads Iowa with 19.7 ppg on 48/36/84 shooting splits, with nobody else on the team averaging more than 11.0 ppg. He cleared 18.5 points in 16 conference games, including a 25-point performance against Nebraska last month. The All-Big Ten guard can create his own shot and he sits in the top 98th percentile in midrange and rim efficiency per ShotQualityBets. Stirtz struggled with his shooting in the first two rounds of the tourney but expect positive regression here.

Sam Hoiberg finished the regular season with a conference-high 2.1 steals per game. He's gone Under 1.5 steals in his last three games but he had cleared that number in eight of his previous 12 contests, averaging 2.3 spg over that span. That includes a five-steal performance against the Hawkeyes earlier this month and a two-steal game against them on February 17.

With both teams boasting highly-efficient, up-tempo attacks, we'll see plenty of points in this game. The question is who will fill up the hoop for Arkansas? Leading scorer Darius Acuff Jr. will be matched up against defensive stopper Jaden Bradley and Arizona's elite interior defense will prevent the Razorbacks from attacking the rim at their usual frequency. That means more shots for guard Meleek Thomas who thrives at midrange and knocks down 2.3 threes per game at a 42% clip. The five-star freshman averages 15.6 ppg and has scored 19+ points in back-to-back games. He also erupted for 29 points against Mississippi and 30 against Mizzu earlier this month.

Houston doesn’t allow dribble-drive into the paint, but Ivisic holds a massive size edge over the Coogs interior and will offer a post-up option on the blocks, giving him some looks at the rim. He’s also a threat on the offensive glass, who’s good for couple second-chance points. Ivisic isn’t shy about shooting from distance either, attempting four or more triples in all but one of his last 18 games. He finished 2 for 5 from 3-point range in the victory over VCU, finishing with 14 points. He’s posted double figures in both NCAA Tournament tilts and before a bumpy end to Big Ten play, he was put up 10+ most nights in February. Projections vary with a high of 9+ points in the Sweet 16.

After being somewhat passive in the opening two games of the tournament, including just nine points in the win over Texas A&M, Kingston Flemings will rise to the occasion in this head-to-head comparison with Illinois star frosh Keaton Wagler. The Illini aren’t the most aggressive defense, opting to drop back into the paint, and Flemings will enjoy plenty of space from outside. He’s been able to find another gear against top-tier opponents and game projections sit as high as 18+ points.

The Blue Devils have been one of the worst teams in the tournament at taking care of the basketball and hitting outside shots. Much of Duke’s offensive output has come via second-chance opportunities, something St. John’s can limit.

The Blue Devils throw up roadblocks on transition attacks and suck them into slower paces, living life in the halfcourt – not a strength of the Red Storm. St. John’s shot surprisingly well from deep in the first week, but that heat will quickly cool, especially against Duke’s perimeter patrol. Duke limits opponents’ offensive rebounds and is No. 2 in defensive FT rate, which takes away two areas of offense for St. John’s. The Red Storm depend on getting to the foul line and second-chance points. Offensively, the Blue Devils are reluctant to run and turn down the tempo, sapping seconds off the shot clock which limits touches for the Johnnies.

With a total north of 170 points and two teams that fire up a Costco-pack of field goals, rebounds are ripe for the picking. So I go to Michigan forward Morez Johnson Jr. He’s snatched up 18 total rebounds over two tourney tilts and has soared on the boards against the Big Ten’s more active outside offenses, posting double figures on the glass versus the likes of Purdue, Illinois and Nebraska. Johnson’s strength and nose for the basketball have his projections flirting with 10 boards.

This may be a “trade 3’s for 2’s” philosophy for the Tide if they can’t get to the rim and game script says Alabama (+9) is playing from behind, putting even more emphasis on its 3-point production. Philon hasn’t attempted fewer than seven shots from beyond the arc in five straight games, including a collective 5 for 15 from distance in the NCAA Tournament. He’s knocked down three or more triples in 11 of his last 17 outings and we could get his highest 3-point volume of the season versus UM.

Jaxon Kohler could lose minutes against UConn with Tom Izzo forced to shuffle his lineup and go smaller, in order to counter Alex Karaban. Kohler can't keep pace with Karaban's off-ball activity and it seems like a more athletic Coen Carr is a better matchup. The Spartans have a proven rim defender in Carson Cooper, who will go straight up with Taris Reed. That will leave Kohler as his backup, mixing up the usual two-big rotation. Kohler's been more effective as a 3-point threat for MSU but won't be in the flow of the game if he and Cooper alternate minutes. His point total is as low as 9.5 but you can shop for 10.5 with the Under asking -130.

Karaban's inside-out production is peaking at the perfect time and fits best against this Spartans defense. Michigan State forces everything to the outside but has been susceptible to solid shooters. Karaban has been that, making 8 of 17 from beyond the arc in the tournament. He was very active against UCLA, which runs a similar rim-protecting scheme. Projections sit closer to 15 points for Karaban.

J.P. Estrella logged only 20 minutes against Virginia but still walked away with five rebounds in the win. The game prior, he pulled down 10 boards in a Round of 64 squash of Miami (Ohio). Iowa State is much smaller without Jefferson, losing his team-high 7.4 rebounds an outing. The 6-foot-11 Estrella has collected at least seven rebounds in seven of his last 12 outings overall.

Momcilovic gone 7 for 16 in the tournament so far and has made three or more triples in seven of his last nine games. With Jefferson out, the Cyclones will play him at power forward which really stresses the Volunteers defense, as the Vols want to crowd the paint with big bodies. He struck for 17 or more points in four of his last five outings and with Jefferson out, there are offensive touches up for grabs. Player projections sit as high as 18+ points from the “Serbian Sniper” in the Sweet 16.