College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

Alvey averaged 16.7 points in conference play and has scored 17 or more in seven of his last 11 games heading into the First Four, upping his output to 19.6 points in that span. The 6-foot-9, 250-pound forward is a problem for a smaller Prairie View A&M squad. The Panthers have couple forwards that run around 6-foot-9, but they’re outmuscled and outclassed against Alvey. He ravaged Colgate on the blocks for 30 points in the Patriot League tournament and now faces a Prairie View A&M defense allowing more than 36 PITP per game (321st).

Wake Forest hasn’t been a double-digit favorite since their non-conference schedule and went 3-4 ATS with spreads that large. The Demon Deacons score only 78.8 ppg and shoot 45.0% from the field, not numbers that lend themselves to blowout wins. The Midshipmen play solid defense, and that will be enough for Navy to cover this number.

KSU coming off a 1-for-23 shooting night from deep and allowing 16 ppg off turnovers against a defense allowing 28% shooting from downtown at home doesn’t inspire confidence, especially against an offense capable of scoring on Kent State’s 81 ppg defense.

While these teams might be evenly matched on a neutral court, Utah Valley has been unbeatable at home, where they've won 27 straight over the last two years. I'm banking on that home-court advantage to make the difference again tonight for the Wolverines.

Dayton thrives in chaotic environments, but Bradley’s discipline reduces those opportunities. If the Braves also capitalize on their rebounding edge for extra possessions and convert from deep, they can grind out a close win.

Both teams are strong from three-point range, but this game could hinge on the battle inside, and Sam Houston can surprise New Mexico inside the arc. The 6-foot-10 Veljko Ilic averages 11.8 points and can hit in the paint as well as the long two.

He’ll be the biggest man on the floor for much of the game and can attack a Lobos defense that has allowed six of the last eight opponents to hit more than 55% of their two-point attempts. 

It may not be enough to spring the upset, but Sam Houston should keep it close enough to cover.

Miami (Ohio) wins games. Period. It took everyone’s best during MAC competition – especially in those final few games of conference play. Much like how those foes were incentivized to end the RedHawks’ streak, Travis Steele’s squad is now motivated to prove it belongs in the Big Dance. It’ll give SMU everything it’s got in Dayton. And speaking of which, SMU stinks away from home. The Mustangs were 5-9 SU away from Dallas this season.

The Under is 16-9 in the last 25 games for Saint Joseph’s. It makes sense, given the Hawks rank 34th in opponent eFG% this season. The Hawks also rank 43rd in block rate and 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency. That offsets an offense ranked just 280th in eFG%, hurt further by a 30.8% accuracy rate from beyond the arc. The Rams rank 358th in adjusted tempo. While they rank Top 10 in 3-point accuracy and get to the FT line often, the Hawks defend well without fouling. Colorado State will hit shots, but not enough to push the total past the number. 

Brock Harding averages 5.7 assists and leads the TCU fast break, with those possessions fueled by creating turnovers. Texas Christian’s offense thrives on ball movement, with one of the higher assist-to-FGM rates in the country (63rd), and Harding dished out five or more dimes in 14 of the final 19 regular season games. Round 1 projections flirt with six dimes.

Texas Christian enters the NCAA playing its best basketball of the season, with its only loss in the past month to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament (6-1 ATS). The Horned Frogs can poke a soft spot for OSU, which coughs the ball up too much. TCU is terrific at flipping those mistakes into buckets, forcing almost 14 turnovers for 16 POTOV per game. 

Long misses lead to long rebounds, and long rebounds lead to points in transition. Expect plenty of each piece of that thought as the Troy Trojans hoist a bounty of 3-pointers early on Thursday: Troy takes 3-pointers at an inordinately high rate despite making less than a third of them, while the Nebraska Cornhuskers rank top-10 in the country in both forcing 3-point attempts and in opponents missing those 3-pointers.

Hadley is an underrated 3-point shooter, hitting at 45.6%. He’s made two or more triples in six of his last nine games and faces a poor perimeter defense from USF.

The 6-foot-7 senior is a tough matchup for USF’s backcourt, which tops out at 6-foot-5. J'Vonne Hadley can bully smaller defenders and blow by bigger ones, if the Bulls switch out a forward on him. He’s able to score in various way, either finishing the fastbreak, getting to the rim, or knocking down looks from beyond the arc. Hadley can also scoop up misses for putbacks on the offensive glass. He’s averaged 15 points over the past 11 games and while his usage spikes with Brown out, he still scored plenty of points when the freshman stud was in the lineup.

The Panthers are at their best when they can force turnovers and get to the line. However, Wisconsin turns the ball over at the third-lowest rate in the country and does a good job defending without fouling. But the main reason I'm fading the Panthers is because they rank just 346th in strength of schedule per ESPN, easily the weakest SOS of any team in the tourney that isn't a No. 16 seed. Meanwhile, the Badgers have proven themselves against elite competition, racking up five wins against teams currently ranked in the top 10 at KenPom.

Wisconsin fires up the third most 3-pointers in the country and hits its share too, pushing its average points north of 80. High Point is also trigger happy from distance, knocking down nine triples and scoring 86.5 points per game – 10th most in the land. The Panthers also like to push the pace, sitting Top 50 in tempo, which is just fine for the Badgers’ backcourt duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. They combined for 51 points per game over three Big Ten tournament contests.

When it comes to monster favorites in the Big Dance, those powerful programs live up to the hype. Since 1998, favorites of -28 or higher are 13-9 ATS. Duke’s plan for Round 1 is to build a lead, sit the starters, and begin looking ahead to the Round of 32. That doesn’t mean the Blue Devils can’t also cover this spread. Going back to the non-conference slate, the Dukies laid spreads of 30+ and creamed those mid-major foes behind a bench scoring more than 36 points per game. 

Cameron Boozer dominated his way to an average of 22.5 ppg, and the books have decided to set his points prop right at that average. Against an overwhelmed Siena squad, we should expect Boozer to have an above-average game.

North Dakota State doesn’t have the same size inside that MSU’s Big Ten foes boast, topping out at 6-foot-9 in the starting lineup. That means there less deterrent for Carr to attack the rim. He’s scored 12 or more points in eight of the past 14 games and projections sit between 13 and 14 points on Thursday night.

The Tar Heels aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, and they leave far too many points at the foul line. I question UNC’s motivations in March. VCU, however, has been fighting for its life for the past two months after sitting on the bubble until the A-10 tournament win. Virginia Commonwealth attacks on every level: drawing fouls, crashing the glass, and playing tight defense. The Rams won’t be intimidated by UNC’s pedigree either, having played a tough non-conference slate.

Howard’s opponents draw a free throw rate on average at 38.5%, which is one of the highest in the field. Michigan hasn’t really played any team this season with a number that high, but you have to legitimately worry about the twin-tower combo of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara fouling out the entire Bison frontcourt. 

This matchup screams pace. Both teams rank Top 50 in tempo and thrive in transition offensively, while struggling to defend it. That’s the perfect recipe for a track meet. Expect constant push, quick shots, and minimal resistance in the open floor. That’s exactly the environment you want when backing an Over this high.

Saint Louis has a few edges over UGA, starting with the fact they actually play defense. The Billikens also run deep, able to keep fresh capable scorers on the floor. And most importantly, SLU can light it up from long range. Georgia’s 3-point shooting runs hot and cold while Saint Louis shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc and averages over 10 triples an outing. Game models have this as one of the closest contests of the Round of 64 with forecasts between one and two points for UGA. 

Kentucky’s transition offense is elite, scoring an absurd 1.44 points per play (99th percentile). That’s where Oweh thrives as he’s responsible for team leading 7% of Kentucky’s transition scoring. Santa Clara, meanwhile, allows 1.28 points per play in transition (one of the worst nationally). That’s a problem against Kentucky as a whole, but it’s a big issue against one of the best transition scorers in the SEC. 

Try to find somewhere for Akron to go on offense. Transition where they are overly reliant? Texas Tech clamps that at the 99th percentile. Other key tenets of their offense, like attack and kick actions, are also shut down at the 90th percentile. I don’t know how Akron hangs because I don’t know how the Zips score. 

Hofstra checks a lot of boxes when it comes to mid-majors giving power conference foes fits. The Pride rebound well, defend the rim, shoot the 3-ball, and have game-breaking scorer in Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG). Alabama's defense is still soft and will struggle to keep Hofstra from the offensive glass. Game models vary, with one calling for a 14-point margin but others down to 11 and even 7 points.