College Basketball Picks and March Madness Best Bets

These teams play at two of the slowest paces in the country, and when combined, possessions will be at a premium even if both sides have efficent shooters on the court. There simply won't be enough opportunities for points to hit this total, so I'm taking the Under.

The Bison score points by flipping turnovers into easy buckets and crashing the glass for offensive putbacks. About 42% of their output come via those methods. The UMBC Retrievers seem to be the perfect poison. They play a controlled tempo, take care of the basketball (22nd TOV), and clean the defensive glass at a Top 15 rate. Foes are limited in second-chance looks and points off turnovers.

Yale has one of the most prolific offenses of any mid-major team, checking in at 35th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom). They rank 24th in effective field goal percentage (56.1%) and average 81.8 PPG. Yale is 9-3 O/U in non-conference matchups, when its defense (202nd in adjusted efficiency) generally fails to match the offense. 

Due to elevation, the Cowboys play well in Laramie but struggle away from home. They have an average margin of +10.3 ppg at home but that swings to -4.8 ppg at road and neutral sites where they are 4-10. Meanwhile, Wichita State is 14-3 at home with a margin of +13.4 ppg. The Shockers play significantly better defense than Wyoming, ranking 27th in the country in opponent eFG% (47.3%) with 7-foot-2 Will Berg protecting the rim. They also rank seventh in extra scoring chances per game (+5.1) and will turn those into buckets and cover this spread.

Stephen F. Austin really struggled to find points in the conference tournament. That’s not surprising for an offense ranked 303rd in 2-point accuracy since the start of February. Both teams defend the perimeter well and take care of the basketball. I expect more calculated possessions and a score that goes south of the total.

These teams combined for 199 points when they clashed in November and we should get another shootout here. Both teams are significantly better on offense than defense. Texas sits outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate and opponent 3PT%, while the Wolfpack take care of the ball and shoots a sizzling 38.8% from deep. Meanwhile, NC State has surrendered more than 80 points in six straight games and ranks 348th in opponent eFG% (57.8%) since the start of February. That's bad news against a Longhorns attack that is 61st in eFG% (54.2%), controls the offensive glass, and gets to the line at the fourth-highest rate in Div 1.

Seattle ranks 18th nationally in adjusted defense according to BarTorvik. By any objective metric, this is a legit high-level defense while the other side is slightly below average. The Redhawks smother perimeter creation at one of the highest rates in college basketball.  Unfortunately for the Tommies this is a place they are both reliant on and effective scoring while Seattle erases it.

Wake Forest hasn’t been a double-digit favorite since their non-conference schedule and went 3-4 ATS with spreads that large. The Demon Deacons score only 78.8 ppg and shoot 45.0% from the field, not numbers that lend themselves to blowout wins. The Midshipmen play solid defense, and that will be enough for Navy to cover this number.

KSU coming off a 1-for-23 shooting night from deep and allowing 16 ppg off turnovers against a defense allowing 28% shooting from downtown at home doesn’t inspire confidence, especially against an offense capable of scoring on Kent State’s 81 ppg defense.

Miami (Ohio) wins games. Period. It took everyone’s best during MAC competition – especially in those final few games of conference play. Much like how those foes were incentivized to end the RedHawks’ streak, Travis Steele’s squad is now motivated to prove it belongs in the Big Dance. It’ll give SMU everything it’s got in Dayton. And speaking of which, SMU stinks away from home. The Mustangs were 5-9 SU away from Dallas this season.

Texas Christian enters the NCAA playing its best basketball of the season, with its only loss in the past month to Kansas in the Big 12 tournament (6-1 ATS). The Horned Frogs can poke a soft spot for OSU, which coughs the ball up too much. TCU is terrific at flipping those mistakes into buckets, forcing almost 14 turnovers for 16 POTOV per game. 

Defensively, UL matches up well against South Florida. The Bulls thrive on causing chaos, picking up points off turnovers and crashing the glass for offensive putbacks. The Cardinals love to run and are one of the better rebounding teams in the country and don’t allow many second-chance buckets. The Bulls sell out to stop interior scoring but can get torched by outside shooting. When UL has all its weapons, the Cardinals knock down the fifth most triples in the country and shoot almost 36% from deep.

Wisconsin fires up the third most 3-pointers in the country and hits its share too, pushing its average points north of 80. High Point is also trigger happy from distance, knocking down nine triples and scoring 86.5 points per game – 10th most in the land. The Panthers also like to push the pace, sitting Top 50 in tempo, which is just fine for the Badgers’ backcourt duo of John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. They combined for 51 points per game over three Big Ten tournament contests.

The Tar Heels aren’t a great 3-point shooting team, and they leave far too many points at the foul line. I question UNC’s motivations in March. VCU, however, has been fighting for its life for the past two months after sitting on the bubble until the A-10 tournament win. Virginia Commonwealth attacks on every level: drawing fouls, crashing the glass, and playing tight defense. The Rams won’t be intimidated by UNC’s pedigree either, having played a tough non-conference slate.

Saint Louis has a few edges over UGA, starting with the fact they actually play defense. The Billikens also run deep, able to keep fresh capable scorers on the floor. And most importantly, SLU can light it up from long range. Georgia’s 3-point shooting runs hot and cold while Saint Louis shoots better than 40% from beyond the arc and averages over 10 triples an outing. Game models have this as one of the closest contests of the Round of 64 with forecasts between one and two points for UGA. 

Hofstra checks a lot of boxes when it comes to mid-majors giving power conference foes fits. The Pride rebound well, defend the rim, shoot the 3-ball, and have game-breaking scorer in Cruz Davis (20.2 PPG). Alabama's defense is still soft and will struggle to keep Hofstra from the offensive glass. Game models vary, with one calling for a 14-point margin but others down to 11 and even 7 points.