Alabama Crimson Tide

Picks

BYU is ninth in the country in adjusted offense and is more than capable of going bucket for bucket against an Alabama squad that is 346th in ppg allowed (81.0). Bama's lax defense led to almost getting upset in the first round when No. 15 seed Robert Morris dropped 81 points. While Saint Mary's scored 66 points against them in the last round that had more to do with the Gaels pathetic shooting than good defense.The Tide  were fortunate that the Gaels shot just 12-32 at the rim and went 1-8 on open threes. The Cougars are sixth in the country in 2PT% (58.4%) and 28th in 3PT% (37.3%) and will make Bama pay if they get those open looks. The Tide are near the bottom of the country in opponent TO rate and won't be able to exploit BYU's issues with ball security. Their drop coverage also leaves outside shooters open which is why they rank 340th at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQualityBets.

Alabama is fourth in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom while ranking first in tempo and scoring (90.8 ppg). They are fresh off an 80-point performance against a Saint Mary's squad that has a terrific defense and plays at an extremely slow pace. They should torch a BYU squad that can get sucked into fast-paced shootouts. The Cougars are 248th in opponent 3-point percentage (35%) and they sit outside the Top 250 at defending cuts and off-ball screens. That's bad news against a Bama squad that runs both of those plays at an elite level and has a 37.3 3PT% since the start of the New Year. The Tide have scored 90+ points in nine of last 14 games. The games where they finished with fewer than 90 points came against teams in the Top 20 in adjusted defense per KenPom. BYU checks in at No. 71.