Duke Blue Devils

Picks

J’Wan Roberts leads Houston’s attack on the glass, hounding it at a 9.7% rate on the season and 8.4% in Big 12 play. Add in finding about 15.5% of available defensive boards, and you get an idea of how often Roberts finds a wayward shot. In the Cougars’ most important games, he crashes the glass even harder. In the last five games he played in with spreads within three buckets, Roberts has cleared this prop in four, averaging 7.8 boards in those five games. He snagged only two against Tennessee because foul trouble cost him most of the first half. The Vols are much more aggressive about drawing fouls than Duke is so, in theory, that should be less of a worry for Roberts in San Antonio.

Duke forces opponents to take the fifth-longest possessions in the country. That points to more usage from LJ Cryer. He averaged three made 3-pointers per Big 12 game this season, shooting 42.6% from deep on seven attempts per game. And he may take more than that because of Duke’s defense. If Houston finds itself up against the shot clock, the ball is most likely going to be in Cryer’s hands, and that may lead to a few extra chucks from deep. Those will not be excellent looks, but if he makes just one, then this prop is all that much more likely to cash.

Joseph Tugler may be the best defender in the country. At 6-foot-8, he will not give Flagg space to breath, and Tugler is capable of removing any player from the game plan. With Terrance Arceneaux complementing Tugler, Flagg will not see much daylight. This is how Houston has ranked No. 5 in the country this season in opposing field-goal percentage inside the arc. Foes make just 44.5% of their 2-point attempts as the Cougars limit both penetration and entry passes. Duke’s last loss came to Clemson, when Flagg went 3-of-11 from inside and scored 18 points. The Tigers held the Devils to 38.7% inside the arc, the exact template to expect from Houston.

Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer has shot 37% from the field during the Cougars' road to the Final Four. That's well below his season average, which is why he scored as many as 30 points against Gonzaga and only five points against Purdue. Cryer is up against an elite Duke Blue Devils defense, which might make it difficult for him to get his shot up. The senior guard has dished 3+ assists in all four March Madness tournament games and should have ample opportunities to serve up 3+ assists against Duke.

Even before adjusting for the Cougars’ lockdown D, Flagg has scored 20 or more points just three times in his past 14 outings – excluding the ACC tournament game with Georgia Tech in which he played only 15 minutes before injuring his ankle. Flagg’s point total for Saturday sits at 19.5 Over/Under with the Under priced at -125, which doesn’t make sense when you compare that to the team total for this run-in with Houston and his recent prop markets. Most game projections have the Blue Devils finishing below that team total of 70.5, with an consensus of 67.5 points from Duke. Player forecasts for Flagg range from 15.5 to 17 points with my number at 15.9 points against UH on Saturday.