Connecticut @ Minnesota picks
Target Center
CON vs MIN Covers Picks
View all Covers Picks
Kayla McBride u12.5 points (-102)
The Minnesota veteran only took six shots on Sunday, finishing with five points, and she’s fallen short of this O/U line in three of the four games in this series. But it’s not as simple as just expecting McBride to chase a larger shot volume. There are other mouths to feed in this Lynx offense, including the uber-confident Courtney Williams and Bridget Carleton, who attempted 11 threes over the weekend. McBride’s No.1 job is getting the ball to Collier, and her own scoring can take a back seat as a result. If this Game 5 battle slows to a grind, this could be one of several points props that cash in the Under.
Alyssa Thomas o14.5 points (+102)
Alyssa Thomas is a good bet to play the full 40 minutes tonight, and she finished with 18 points on 8-for-17 shooting in Game 4. The 14.5 O/U line feels low considering that Thomas has poured in at least 17 points in four of her past five outings, and she seems to have got the memo about being a little greedier with her shot selection. It also helped that the Sun went small for chunks of Game 4 as Brionna Jones only played 14 minutes, opening up more room for Thomas to operate. I’m predicting a similar script tonight. Thomas is still going to take charge of play-making duties for Connecticut (she had 11 dimes on Sunday), but a scoring mentality will be critical to get the visitors over the hump and into the Finals.
Napheesa Collier o9.5 rebounds (-106)
Collier has had double-digit boards in each of her last three contests while averaging 11 rebounds per game in this semifinal series, and these deciding matchups often trend towards nervy, low-scoring scraps. Even on the best of days, the Sun can go through offensive droughts, and they averaged 75 points per game in the first two outings against Minnesota. When you tack on the high stakes tonight, there should be plenty of misses for the Lynx defenders to vacuum up. A trip to the WNBA Finals would be a fitting finale for Collier after such a stellar year, and her work on the glass could help swing Game 5 in the home team’s favor.
Connecticut +4.5 (-110)
Three of the seven games between these two teams in 2024 have been decided by three or fewer points. The road team has covered in five of seven, and Connecticut is 2-1 ATS in three games at Target Center this season. This has been a tightly-contested playoff series after a hard-fought regular-season series, and 4.5 points is a generous number to give a veteran Sun team looking to make the Finals for the third time in six seasons.
CON vs MIN Consensus Picks
View all Consensus Picks63% picking Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Over
Total PicksCON 208, MIN 124
CON vs MIN Top User Picks
View all Top User Picks'Alan Palmer' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Under (151.5)
Alan Palmer is #1 on picking games that Connecticut is in with a record of (26-17-3) and +8300 units on the season.
'mrmojack' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Under (151.0)
mrmojack is #1 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (21-13-2) and +10700 units on the season.
'88FAN' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Under (151.5)
88FAN is #2 on picking games that Connecticut is in with a record of (19-11-0) and +7450 units on the season.
'harrisonian175' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Under (151.5)
harrisonian175 is #3 on picking games that Connecticut is in with a record of (16-11-0) and +7050 units on the season.
'uncledewey' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Under (151.5)
uncledewey is #5 on picking games that Connecticut is in with a record of (23-15-1) and +7000 units on the season.
'ciarajo' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Under (151.5)
ciarajo is #6 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (26-15-1) and +7400 units on the season.
'catman650' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Over (151.5)
catman650 is #6 on picking games that Connecticut is in with a record of (24-16-2) and +6900 units on the season.
'roxwawy20' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Over (151.5)
roxwawy20 is #8 on picking games that Connecticut is in with a record of (21-15-1) and +6090 units on the season.
'OMG1GERALD' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Over (151.0)
OMG1GERALD is #8 on picking games that Minnesota is in with a record of (20-20-1) and +6900 units on the season.
'Geo Lazos' picks Connecticut vs Minnesota to go Under (151.5)
Geo Lazos is #9 on picking games that Connecticut is in with a record of (21-14-4) and +6000 units on the season.