Houston @ Baltimore props

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized). THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 55.9% pass rate. The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week. The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board. Dalton Schultz has been among the worst possession receivers in football among TEs, catching a mere 64.6% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 13th percentile.

The Ravens are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football. J.K. Dobbins has been among the weakest pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a measly 0.9 receptions per game while checking in at the 24th percentile among running backs. The Houston Texans pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (78.6%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (78.6%).

The Texans are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.83 seconds per play. THE BLITZ projects Nico Collins to earn 6.1 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wideouts. Nico Collins's 52.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 79th percentile for WRs. The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (69.8%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (69.8%).

The Texans are a big 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 9th-fastest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.83 seconds per play. THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to accumulate 3.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs. Dameon Pierce has been among the best RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 75th percentile. The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (84.2%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (84.2%).

The Ravens are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 51.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football. The Houston Texans pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.1%) to wideouts since the start of last season (64.1%).