1.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
7.55%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
7.55%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
o0.5
+160
58.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.8
DIFFERENCE
7.19%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
58.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.8
DIFFERENCE
7.19%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 130.3 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (32.5 per game) this year.. The projections expect Stefon Diggs to earn 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The Patriots offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.. With an impressive 53.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (90th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the best WRs in the NFL in football.
o44.5
-114
255.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+25.0
DIFFERENCE
7.09%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
255.5 OVER
PROJECTION
+25.0
DIFFERENCE
7.09%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a stellar 68.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.. Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 8.23 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 94th percentile.
o230.5
-112
105.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.7
DIFFERENCE
7.01%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
105.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.7
DIFFERENCE
7.01%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to accumulate 12.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 35.7% Target% this season shows a significant boost in his passing attack volume over last season's 24.3% rate.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has put up significantly more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).
o90.5
-112
47.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
6.97%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
47.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+9.2
DIFFERENCE
6.97%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
o38.5
-110
54.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.9
DIFFERENCE
6.65%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
54.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.9
DIFFERENCE
6.65%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The leading projections forecast Courtland Sutton to notch 7.7 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
o46.5
-111
61.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
6.65%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
61.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
6.65%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. This week, Kyren Williams is expected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 91st percentile among running backs with 14.0 carries.. Kyren Williams's 5.4 adjusted yards per carry this year represents a noteable boost in his running ability over last year's 4.3 rate.
o53.5
-110
34.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.9
DIFFERENCE
6.6%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
34.4 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.9
DIFFERENCE
6.6%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
o27.5
-115
19.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
6.53%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
19.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
6.53%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The predictive model expects Jarrett Stidham to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (16.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).
o14.5
-114
7.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
6.51%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
7.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.8
DIFFERENCE
6.51%
EV
The Seahawks rank as the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.6% run rate.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
o4.5
-115
77.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.8
DIFFERENCE
6.35%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
77.7 UNDER
PROJECTION
-7.8
DIFFERENCE
6.35%
EV
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a mere 49.2 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. This year, the imposing Los Angeles Rams run defense has allowed a puny 97.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 7th-fewest in the league.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.
u85.5
-110
269.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.2
DIFFERENCE
6.34%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
269.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.2
DIFFERENCE
6.34%
EV
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. With an impressive tally of 244.0 adjusted passing yards per game (98th percentile), Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
o251.5
-110
211.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.7
DIFFERENCE
6.31%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
211.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.7
DIFFERENCE
6.31%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.
o198.5
-110
211.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-12.1
DIFFERENCE
6.23%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
211.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-12.1
DIFFERENCE
6.23%
EV
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The New England Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 47.3 plays per game.. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the league against the Broncos defense this year (67.2% Adjusted Completion%).. The Broncos pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 7.18 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-fewest in the league.
u223.5
-110
25.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
6.14%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
25.8 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.3
DIFFERENCE
6.14%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.
o20.5
-110
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
LA @ SEA
17.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.4
DIFFERENCE
5.89%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
17.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.4
DIFFERENCE
5.89%
EV
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a mere 49.2 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.
u19.5
+100
30.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
5.81%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
30.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
5.81%
EV
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. With an impressive 63.2% snap rate (81st percentile) this year, Colby Parkinson ranks among the running backs with the highest volume in the league.
o24.5
-114
16.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.7
DIFFERENCE
5.72%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
16.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.7
DIFFERENCE
5.72%
EV
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The New England Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 47.3 plays per game.. Rhamondre Stevenson's skills in picking up extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.15 figure last year.. The Broncos pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73%) to RBs this year (73.0%).
u19.5
-111
23.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
5.6%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
23.3 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.8
DIFFERENCE
5.6%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The leading projections forecast Evan Engram to earn 4.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
o18.5
-118
PASSING ATTEMPTS
LA @ SEA
33.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
5.48%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
33.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.7
DIFFERENCE
5.48%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
o29.5
-120
12.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
5.42%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
12.6 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.9
DIFFERENCE
5.42%
EV
Kyren Williams's 53.2% Route% this season reflects a meaningful regression in his passing attack usage over last season's 63.7% figure.. The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.. Kyren Williams's 82.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.9% figure.. Kyren Williams's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year reflects a substantial reduction in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last year's 5.5% figure.. This year, the stout Seahawks defense has surrendered the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing running backs: a mere 5.3 yards.
u14.5
-110
2.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
5.4%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
2.1 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
5.4%
EV
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The New England Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 47.3 plays per game.. The Broncos pass defense has conceded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73%) to RBs this year (73.0%).. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Denver's unit has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 9th-best in the NFL.
u2.5
+110
LA
+2.5 spread
-1.0
PROJECTION
-3.5
DIFFERENCE
5.16%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
LA
+2.5 spread
Close Modal
-1.0
PROJECTION
-3.5
DIFFERENCE
5.16%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
+2.5
-110
20.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.1
DIFFERENCE
5.06%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
20.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.1
DIFFERENCE
5.06%
EV
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 56.3% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a mere 49.2 per game on average).. Kenneth Walker III's 8.3% Target% this year marks a noteable reduction in his passing game workload over last year's 14.0% rate.. Kenneth Walker III has totaled a puny -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 12th percentile among running backs.. This year, the formidable Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered a mere 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 7th-best rate in football.
u23.5
-105
SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
NE @ DEN
0.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.17
DIFFERENCE
5.04%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.33 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.17
DIFFERENCE
5.04%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Denver Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. With an extraordinary 22.4% Red Zone Target Share (90th percentile) this year, Courtland Sutton rates as one of the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in football.
+300
SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
LA @ SEA
0.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.14
DIFFERENCE
4.98%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.64 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.14
DIFFERENCE
4.98%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a remarkable 26.2% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in football.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has put up significantly more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 86.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.
+105
PASSING COMPLETIONS
LA @ SEA
22.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
4.8%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
22.0 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.5
DIFFERENCE
4.8%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a stellar 68.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.
o19.5
-115
40.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.2
DIFFERENCE
4.77%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
40.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.2
DIFFERENCE
4.77%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
u43.5
-122
PASSING ATTEMPTS
NE @ DEN
34.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
4.68%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
34.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
4.68%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
o31.5
-125
LA
+120 moneyline
LA
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
4.31%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
LA
+120 moneyline
Close Modal
LA
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
4.31%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
+120
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
NE @ DEN
11.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
4.28%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
11.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
4.28%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. The leading projections forecast the Broncos to be the 2nd-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 39.7% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The Patriots safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
u12.5
-105
41.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.3
DIFFERENCE
4.26%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
41.2 UNDER
PROJECTION
-2.3
DIFFERENCE
4.26%
EV
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.3% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The New England Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 47.3 plays per game.. Hunter Henry's 37.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 44.2.. Hunter Henry's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a noteable decrease in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 4.1% mark.
u43.5
-110
SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
LA @ SEA
0.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.24
DIFFERENCE
4.08%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.24
DIFFERENCE
4.08%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a fantastic 91.5% Adjusted Catch% (90th percentile) this year, Kenneth Walker III ranks among the most sure-handed receivers in the league among RBs.. Opposing squads have rushed for the fewest TDs in the league (0.42 per game) versus the Rams defense this year.
-150
1.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.97%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
1.8 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.7
DIFFERENCE
3.97%
EV
Kyren Williams's 53.2% Route% this season reflects a meaningful regression in his passing attack usage over last season's 63.7% figure.. The Los Angeles Rams offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all passing game stats across the board.. Kyren Williams's 82.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a remarkable decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.9% figure.. The Seahawks safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
u2.5
-149
33.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
3.9%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
33.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.1
DIFFERENCE
3.9%
EV
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Patriots are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on running than their usual approach.. The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to be the most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 44.7% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 130.3 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.
o29.5
-114
SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
NE @ DEN
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.10
DIFFERENCE
3.88%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.10
DIFFERENCE
3.88%
EV
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 130.3 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (32.5 per game) this year.. While Stefon Diggs has accounted for 16.7% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in New England's passing attack near the goal line in this week's game at 22.8%.. The Patriots offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.
+205
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
NE @ DEN
5.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
3.7%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
5.9 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.6
DIFFERENCE
3.7%
EV
The New England Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 47.3 plays per game.. The Denver Broncos defensive tackles project as the 4th-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
u6.5
-110
7.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
3.69%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
7.7 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.2
DIFFERENCE
3.69%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to accumulate 12.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 35.7% Target% this season shows a significant boost in his passing attack volume over last season's 24.3% rate.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates as one of the top pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an exceptional 5.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.
o6.5
-118
PASSING COMPLETIONS
NE @ DEN
21.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
3.27%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
21.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
3.27%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (62.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.
o19.5
-120
SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
LA @ SEA
0.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.02
DIFFERENCE
3.12%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
0.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.02
DIFFERENCE
3.12%
EV
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. Kyren Williams has notched significantly more air yards this season (9.0 per game) than he did last season (-2.0 per game).
+125
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
NE @ DEN
11.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
3.11%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
11.5 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
3.11%
EV
The New England Patriots have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 47.3 plays per game.. After accounting for 57.5% of his offense's carries last season, Rhamondre Stevenson has been called on less the rushing attack this season, now making up just 36.7%.. The Denver Broncos defensive tackles project as the 4th-best DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
u12.5
-120
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
LA @ SEA
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.05%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
2.3 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
3.05%
EV
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Seattle Seahawks this year (a mere 49.2 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects Sam Darnold to accrue 2.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the 2nd-fewest among all QBs.. After making up 10.9% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Sam Darnold has been called on less the running game this season, now taking on only 5.3%.. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 5th-best in the league.
u2.5
-115
4.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.02%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
4.9 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
3.02%
EV
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 130.3 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (32.5 per game) this year.. The projections expect Stefon Diggs to earn 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. The Patriots offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.. Stefon Diggs's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 73.7% to 85.4%.
o4.5
+116
3.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.89%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
3.6 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.1
DIFFERENCE
2.89%
EV
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
o2.5
-190
48.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
2.84%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
48.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
2.84%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
o46.5
-110
SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
NE @ DEN
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.10
DIFFERENCE
2.73%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds BetMGM
Best Odds
0.4 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.10
DIFFERENCE
2.73%
EV
The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.2% red zone pass rate.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 130.3 total plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.. The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (32.5 per game) this year.. With a top-tier 30.6% Red Zone Target Share (97th percentile) this year, Hunter Henry stands among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.. Hunter Henry has totaled a massive 44.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.
+188
NE
-218 moneyline
NE
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
2.57%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
NE
-218 moneyline
Close Modal
NE
PROJECTION
-
DIFFERENCE
2.57%
EV
There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later.
-218
SCORE A TOUCHDOWN
NE @ DEN
0.17 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.33
DIFFERENCE
2.46%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds DraftKings
Best Odds
0.17 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.33
DIFFERENCE
2.46%
EV
The Denver Broncos may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham.. A passing game script is suggested by the Broncos being a -4.5-point underdog in this week's contest.. At the present time, the 7th-most pass-focused offense in the league near the end zone (59.6% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Denver Broncos.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Broncos profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year.
+550
PASSING ATTEMPTS
LA @ SEA
37.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
2.45%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds FanDuel
Best Odds
37.2 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.7
DIFFERENCE
2.45%
EV
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.. In this contest, Matthew Stafford is anticipated by the model to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.9. . The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.
o35.5
-113
RUSHING ATTEMPTS
LA @ SEA
1.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.41%
EV
Rating:
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Best odds bet365
Best Odds
1.0 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.5
DIFFERENCE
2.41%
EV
The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams as the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 35.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.. The model projects Matthew Stafford to garner 1.5 carries in this week's game, on balance: the fewest among all quarterbacks.. Taking on a measly 2.7% of his team's rushing play calls this year (2nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Matthew Stafford's lack of speed makes him no threat in Los Angeles's rushing attack.. The Seattle defensive ends profile as the best unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
u1.5
-210