NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.4% run rate. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. Jared Goff's 6.20 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season shows a meaningful boost in his running skills over last season's 3.58 mark. This year, the imposing Dallas Cowboys run defense has allowed a meager 5.12 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-smallest rate in football.

The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s 18.6% Route% this year shows a meaningful boost in his air attack volume over last year's 6.6% rate. Chris Rodriguez Jr. has accrued a monstrous 2.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage). As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.

With a 7-point advantage, the Seahawks are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a reliance on running than their typical approach. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to be the 7th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Sam Darnold to be much more involved in his team's run game in this game (7.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.8% in games he has played). Sam Darnold's 6.93 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season illustrates a material growth in his rushing ability over last season's 5.20 rate. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (132 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. The projections expect Deebo Samuel Sr. to total 8.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among wideouts. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (25.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (18.6%). With an excellent 49.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel Sr. has been as one of the leading WRs in the league in the league.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this game, Geno Smith is expected by the projection model to average the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.9. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.5 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. In this game, Tony Pollard is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.7 rush attempts. Among all RBs, Tony Pollard grades out in the 94th percentile for carries this year, taking on 65.3% of the workload in his team's ground game.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). With an outstanding total of 6.6 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (86th percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -6-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.1% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year. With an excellent 8.7 adjusted yards per target (76th percentile) this year, Pat Freiermuth places as one of the top pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points. The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 5th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Jalen Hurts to garner 9.5 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. Our trusted projections expect Jalen Hurts to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack in this contest (31.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (24.0% in games he has played).

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets. Dallas Goedert has accrued a massive 39.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The Chargers linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year. The Denver defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Falcons are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 60.2% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Atlanta Falcons grades out as the 5th-best in football this year.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (270.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year. The Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, giving up 9.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

This year, the anemic Bills run defense has been torched for a monstrous 140.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst in football. The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 31st-worst safety corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.6 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs. Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 248.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football. With a terrific 8.05 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places among the most effective QBs in the NFL.

The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.

The Browns are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script. The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.8 total plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. This year, the poor Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a colossal 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 5th-most in the NFL.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. With an elite 97.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 10.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. The Commanders defense has surrendered the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (162.0) vs. wideouts this year. The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus WRs this year, surrendering 9.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Denver's group of DEs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football (63.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Broncos. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.0 total plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, allowing 7.92 adjusted yards-per-target: the 6th-most in the league.

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league. Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (253.0) this year than he did last year (126.0).

Geno Smith ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a remarkable 2.56 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 89th percentile. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Denver's group of DEs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. While Ross Dwelley has garnered 1.2% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Detroit's pass game in this week's contest at 8.0%. This year, the shaky Dallas Cowboys pass defense has conceded a monstrous 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 7th-largest rate in football.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year. This year, the anemic Broncos defense has yielded the 9th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a massive 6.64 yards.

The Commanders may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling out backup QB Marcus Mariota. The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop-off. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Minnesota's group of safeties has been terrible this year, profiling as the 6th-worst in the league.