NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically lead to lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher run volume.

At the present time, the 4th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (44.4% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Dolphins.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8.5-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. In this contest, Daniel Bellinger is projected by the model to slot into the 77th percentile among TEs with 4.4 targets. While Daniel Bellinger has earned 5.5% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of New York's passing offense in this week's game at 15.0%. Daniel Bellinger has accrued far more air yards this season (16.0 per game) than he did last season (4.0 per game).

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 47.0% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. In this contest, Rhamondre Stevenson is forecasted by the projections to position himself in the 95th percentile among running backs with 18.4 rush attempts. While Rhamondre Stevenson has garnered 37.4% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New England's rushing attack this week at 61.8%. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football.

The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 4th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 48.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 8.1 carries this week, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. The predictive model expects Josh Allen to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (26.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.8% in games he has played). With a remarkable total of 33.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (97th percentile), Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading rushing QBs in the league this year. Josh Allen's 6.43 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteable gain in his rushing skills over last year's 5.65 rate.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 39.3 passes this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

With an exceptional tally of 2.65 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith rates among the best running QBs in the NFL this year. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Giants defense has been gouged for a massive 35.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 10th-most in the league. The New York Giants pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.9%) versus running backs this year (86.9%).

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.9 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Colby Parkinson is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets. While Colby Parkinson has garnered 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this week's game at 18.0%.

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Raiders defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%). The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 46.9% of their plays: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Michael Mayer to garner 7.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to TEs. The leading projections forecast Michael Mayer to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack in this contest (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (10.2% in games he has played).

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 60.4% of their chances: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Giants pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, giving up 7.88 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the NFL.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8.5-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Mike Gesicki is expected by the projection model to place in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 4.9 targets. Mike Gesicki has totaled a staggering 36.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends. This year, the porous Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded a staggering 65.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-worst in the NFL.

The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Chig Okonkwo is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 81st percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.2 targets. With an elite 14.5% Target% (79th percentile) this year, Chig Okonkwo places among the tight ends with the highest volume in the league. Chig Okonkwo ranks in the 75th percentile when it comes to tight ends this year with a remarkable 8.8% of his team's air yards accumulated. The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-worst unit in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.9 offensive plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Matthew Stafford is forecasted by the projections to average the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.3. With an outstanding tally of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford places as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

The projections expect the Cardinals offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.67 seconds per snap. Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (13.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 7 points. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. This year, the stout Arizona Cardinals run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.22 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 29th-lowest rate in football. The Arizona defensive ends project as the 4th-worst collection of DEs in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. This year, the fierce Chicago Bears run defense has allowed a feeble 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-best rate in the league. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Chicago's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

The model projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 21.4 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs. Among all RBs, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 100th percentile for carries this year, comprising 83.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. With a remarkable total of 5.32 adjusted yards per carry (93rd percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the top running backs in football this year.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.7% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is projected by the model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among RBs with 5.5 targets. As it relates to air yards, Chase Brown ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a striking 4.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more notable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). Chase Brown's 23.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 17.9.

With a 41.9% rate of running the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-most run-focused team in the league has been the Titans. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher ground volume.

The New York Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) as a result of being be starting backup quarterback Brady Cook. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual game plan. The Patriots pass defense has given up the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.1%) to wideouts this year (67.1%). This year, the shaky New England Patriots defense has given up the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing WRs: a monstrous 8.55 yards.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.0 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.