NFL Player Props and Best Projections

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are heavy underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The predictive model expects the New England Patriots to be the 11th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 40.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams have run for the 8th-most adjusted yards in the league (129 per game) versus the Dolphins defense this year.

At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the most adjusted yards in the league (266.0 per game) versus the Colts defense this year.

The projections expect the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. In this contest, Matthew Stafford is predicted by our trusted projection set to have the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.1. With a fantastic tally of 256.0 adjusted passing yards per game (95th percentile), Matthew Stafford rates among the leading quarterbacks in the league this year.

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 54.1% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week. This year, the fierce Detroit Lions defense has allowed a mere 66.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-best rate in football. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Steelers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.1 per game) this year. In regards to air yards, Derrick Henry grades out in the towering 78th percentile among RBs this year, totaling an impressive 1.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (85.6%) versus RBs this year (85.6%). The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties rank as the 9th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% pass rate. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. This week, Travis Kelce is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 96th percentile among TEs with 8.2 targets. The projections expect Travis Kelce to be a much bigger part of his offense's pass game in this week's game (25.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.5% in games he has played).

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 35.7 passes this week, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% pass rate. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. In this contest, Marquise Brown is projected by the model to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs with 6.5 targets. The predictive model expects Marquise Brown to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing offense in this game (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.6% in games he has played).

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to run 65.6 total plays in this game: the 10th-most on the slate this week. The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average). The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nick Caley, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context). This game's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Texans, who are -5.5-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Texans offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 27.53 seconds per play. The Colts defensive tackles rank as the 9th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

This week's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Cardinals, who are huge -7.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cardinals to pass on 65.2% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.2 plays per game. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The predictive model expects Drake London to accrue 9.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 97th percentile among WRs. Drake London has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 30.2% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile when it comes to wideouts. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 6th-best in the league this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to see 137.5 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a staggering 59.2 plays per game. This year, the weak Falcons run defense has been torched for a monstrous 128.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 10th-most in football. The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Chris Oladokun. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 63.5% pass rate. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Kansas City O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. This year, the deficient Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered a monstrous 73.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-biggest rate in the NFL.

An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Lions being a massive -10.5-point underdog in this week's game. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions to pass on 60.5% of their plays: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.7 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. In this contest, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 100th percentile among RBs with 8.2 targets. Jahmyr Gibbs has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this year (18.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.4%).

The Seattle Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 7th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency. Zach Charbonnet has earned 39.6% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a stellar tally of 42.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (76th percentile), Zach Charbonnet places among the leading pure rushers in the NFL this year.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Kyle Pitts has gone out for fewer passes this year (91.5% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (75.7%). In this contest, Kyle Pitts is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 98th percentile among TEs with 8.3 targets. After totaling 36.0 air yards per game last season, Kyle Pitts has produced significantly more this season, currently averaging 51.0 per game.

A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.0% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.

A passing game script is indicated by the Chiefs being a -3.5-point underdog this week. This year, the shaky Raiders run defense has been gouged for a massive 128.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 10th-most in football. The Las Vegas defensive tackles rank as the 5th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Eagles are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach. The model projects the Eagles as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The 9th-fewest plays in football have been run by the Eagles this year (just 54.8 per game on average).

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may decline. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. While Marquez Valdes-Scantling has received 6.7% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh's passing offense in this week's contest at 16.5%.

The Baltimore Ravens offense has played at the 3rd-slowest pace in football (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 30.46 seconds per play. The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Derrick Henry has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (92.0) this year than he did last year (118.0). The Steelers defense owns the 5th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC). When it comes to the defensive ends' role in stopping the run, Pittsburgh's collection of DEs has been tremendous this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.2 plays per game. The predictive model expects Michael Carter to be a much smaller part of his team's running game in this game (8.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (27.7% in games he has played).

The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 60.2 plays per game. Jacoby Brissett has been a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this year (12.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). With an outstanding total of 2.07 yards-after-contact (75th percentile), Jacoby Brissett places as one of the leading rushing QBs in the NFL this year.

This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 13 points. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 46.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 59.4 per game on average). Trevor Lawrence has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (11.0). This year, the tough Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a paltry 4.85 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 25th-smallest rate in the league.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The Cincinnati Bengals offense has played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 28.22 seconds per play. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down. The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 37.7 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most among all quarterbacks. Joe Burrow profiles as one of the most accurate passers in the league this year with a fantastic 68.7% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 81st percentile.

A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 4th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may decline. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to notch 7.8 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

This game's line implies a rushing game script for the Bears, who are favored by 3 points. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 54.1% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week. This year, the strong Lions defense has surrendered a mere 62.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 9th-lowest rate in the league. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the NFL.

The Raiders will be rolling out backup quarterback Kenny Pickett in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The Raiders are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Raiders to pass on 60.7% of their downs: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (86.4%) vs. TEs this year (86.4%).