NFL Player Props and Best Projections

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in football. The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to earn 4.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs. In regards to air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the towering 94th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an astounding 6.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more remarkable than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. In this contest, Khalil Shakir is predicted by the model to finish in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.6 targets. With an exceptional 20.6% Target Rate (77th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the league, hauling in a terrific 78.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. The Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Right now, the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (61.8% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jaguars are projected by our trusted projection set to call 66.8 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The most plays in the league have been run by the Jaguars this year (a colossal 61.5 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (35.8 per game) this year.

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline. The Cleveland Browns pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, yielding 8.78 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-most in the NFL.

The Cardinals will be forced to use backup QB Jacoby Brissett this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (38.5 per game) this year. Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (235.0) this season than he did last season (126.0).

A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. The Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 91.6% of his offense's dropbacks this year, putting him in the 88th percentile among wideouts. Our trusted projections expect Jerry Jeudy to total 7.4 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Browns being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. The Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. Saquon Barkley has run for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (118.0). Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has tailed off this year, notching a measly 3.49 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a 5.48 figure last year.

The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. With a stellar rate of 244.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Matthew Stafford rates among the top passers in the NFL this year. This year, the feeble Buccaneers defense has allowed a colossal 244.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-worst in the NFL.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL. This year, the anemic Rams defense has given up a staggering 164.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers: the 4th-most in the NFL.

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in football. Our trusted projections expect John Metchie III to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing game in this contest (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.8% in games he has played). This year, the poor Ravens defense has allowed a massive 165.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-worst in football.

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop. In this week's contest, Baker Mayfield is anticipated by the projection model to have the 5th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.1. Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Rams defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year (77.1% Adjusted Completion%). The Cowboys pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, allowing 9.30 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Dallas's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Raiders being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. While Dawson Knox has received 7.0% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's pass game in this week's game at 12.0%. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. Dawson Knox has been one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among TEs, averaging an exceptional 9.34 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 85th percentile. As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Houston's collection of safeties has been terrible this year, projecting as the 10th-worst in the league.

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bills being a 5.5-point favorite in this game. This week, James Cook is expected by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs with 19.4 carries. After accounting for 50.9% of his team's rushing play calls last year, James Cook has been more involved in the run game this year, currently making up 66.7%. James Cook's 89.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a meaningful gain in his rushing prowess over last year's 68.0 mark. With an outstanding tally of 5.36 adjusted yards per carry (95th percentile), James Cook places as one of the top RBs in the NFL this year.

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. The Baltimore defensive tackles rank as the 5th-best collection of DTs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

This game's spread indicates an extreme running game script for the Ravens, who are overwhelmingly favored by 13.5 points. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 51.3% of their chances: the highest clip among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Ravens to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The projections expect Lamar Jackson to accrue 7.3 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks. This year, the poor New York Jets run defense has yielded a whopping 133.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 9th-worst in football.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3.5-point underdog in this game. Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The 10th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. In throwing a colossal 33.4 pass attempts per game this year, Dak Prescott places among the top QBs in the league (86th percentile) by this metric.

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide. In this game, A.J. Brown is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.4 targets. The Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (72.5%) versus WRs this year (72.5%). This year, the deficient Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a whopping 10.33 yards. As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Dallas's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league.

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in football. The Ravens pass defense has allowed the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (85.7%) vs. TEs this year (85.7%). The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has displayed weak efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 8.47 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in the league.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Buffalo O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board. Josh Allen's 69.7% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a noteable improvement in his passing precision over last season's 64.7% rate. With a fantastic 8.35 adjusted yards-per-target (91st percentile) this year, Josh Allen places among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have just 128.5 total plays run: the 5th-lowest number among all games this week. Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, averaging the 8th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.3 per game) this year. Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 7th-fewest yards in the league (just 206.0 adjusted yards per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year. The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the best group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play. After comprising 1.3% of his team's rush attempts last season, Davis Mills has been called on more in the ground game this season, now accounting for 7.9%. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (150 per game) vs. the Bills defense this year. The Bills linebackers rank as the 4th-worst LB corps in football this year when it comes to run defense.

The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are giant underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in football. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the league (250.0 per game) vs. the Ravens defense this year.

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

At the present time, the 8th-most run-focused offense in football (41.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Browns. The Browns have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 60.5 plays per game. The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles profile as the 6th-worst group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

At the moment, the 3rd-most run-focused offense in the NFL (42.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Jets. The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 128.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. In this game, Breece Hall is anticipated by the projection model to finish in the 88th percentile among running backs with 17.6 rush attempts. With an excellent record of 60.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (84th percentile), Breece Hall stands among the best running backs in the league this year. The Ravens defense owns the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 4.88 adjusted yards-per-carry.

The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. WRs this year, allowing 7.67 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Arizona Cardinals have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.1 plays per game. Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his team's run game this season (11.8% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (5.6%).

The Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Davis Mills this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 61.8% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip on the slate this week. The projections expect the Texans to be the 2nd-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 27.22 seconds per play. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

The projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are predicted by the model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number among all teams this week. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with better passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume. The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to accrue 10.9 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among WRs. Puka Nacua has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.6% this year, which ranks in the 96th percentile among wideouts.