NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The Indianapolis Colts may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and call more rushes) given that they be starting backup quarterback Philip Rivers. The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The model projects the Colts to be the 7th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.3 pass attempts per game against the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL.

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Falcons being a giant -8-point underdog in this week's game. The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (37.7 per game) this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.4% run rate. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.4 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. This year, the poor Lions defense has yielded a monstrous 247.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 8th-worst in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 131.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Cardinals this year (a colossal 60.8 per game on average). Jacoby Brissett has been much more involved in his offense's running game this year (13.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.6%). Opposing offenses have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year. The Cincinnati Bengals safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 58.7% of their chances: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this game, Jahmyr Gibbs is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 100th percentile when it comes to running backs with 8.6 targets. While Jahmyr Gibbs has garnered 18.5% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Detroit's passing attack this week at 24.0%. Jahmyr Gibbs has notched a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).

The leading projections forecast the Rams as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to see 133.4 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. This week, Colby Parkinson is predicted by the model to place in the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.8 targets. While Colby Parkinson has garnered 9.9% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much bigger part of Los Angeles's passing offense in this week's game at 18.0%.

With an exceptional tally of 2.65 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith rates among the best running QBs in the NFL this year. The Giants defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 5.70 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

At the present time, the 9th-most run-focused offense in the league (41.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Panthers. In this week's game, Rico Dowdle is anticipated by our trusted projection set to finish in the 78th percentile among RBs with 14.4 carries. Out of all running backs, Rico Dowdle grades out in the 87th percentile for rush attempts this year, taking on 55.6% of the workload in his offense's run game. With an impressive record of 56.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (86th percentile), Rico Dowdle places among the best pure rushers in the league this year.

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Patriots to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. Right now, the 2nd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 61.5% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 38.9 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-most out of all QBs. The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.33 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now.

The Kansas City Chiefs may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup QB Chris Oladokun. At a -13.5-point disadvantage, the Chiefs are big underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a reliance on throwing than their typical approach. The leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 136.0 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The Broncos defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.6 per game) this year.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 136.0 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 59.3 per game on average). The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this contest, Keenan Allen is projected by the projections to place in the 86th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets. Keenan Allen checks in as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 47.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 81st percentile. Keenan Allen's 70.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful progression in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 61.0% figure.

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script. The predictive model expects the 49ers to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 59.2 plays per game. This year, the fierce Chicago Bears run defense has allowed a feeble 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-best rate in the league. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Chicago's unit has been terrible this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.

The model projects Jonathan Taylor to accrue 21.1 rush attempts in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs. Among all RBs, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the 100th percentile for carries this year, comprising 83.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack. With a remarkable total of 5.32 adjusted yards per carry (93rd percentile), Jonathan Taylor ranks among the top running backs in football this year.

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the NFL versus the Raiders defense this year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%). The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Ravens, who are -3-point underdogs. The model projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a measly 48.5 per game on average). Derrick Henry has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (74.0) this year than he did last year (118.0). This year, the poor Green Bay Packers run defense has been torched for a monstrous 3.92 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 30th-worst rate in the league.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.7% of their plays: the 9th-highest rate among all teams this week. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.33 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.

The Giants have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.5 plays per game. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. The Raiders safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs. The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. This year, the feeble Detroit Lions defense has been gouged for a staggering 167.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing WRs: the 3rd-worst in football.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 11.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile among wideouts. After totaling 68.0 air yards per game last season, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen marked improvement this season, currently averaging 83.0 per game. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 73.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this year than it was last year at 62.4.

The Patriots are a massive 13.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Patriots to run on 47.6% of their plays: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week. This year, the weak Jets run defense has yielded a colossal 136.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 6th-most in football. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's safety corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 135.8 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Kansas City Chiefs this year (a colossal 59.3 per game on average). The Denver defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.3% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to running backs. In this game, Saquon Barkley is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.4 targets. Saquon Barkley has posted a staggering 2.0 air yards per game this year: 90th percentile among RBs. (This may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). The Philadelphia offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board. Saquon Barkley rates as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging a remarkable 16.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

The Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Josh Johnson this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Cowboys defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.5 per game) this year. In this week's game, Terry McLaurin is anticipated by the model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.2 targets.

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Broncos being a heavy 13.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos as the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 136.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a staggering 59.5 per game on average).

A passing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a -5.5-point underdog this week. This week, Darren Waller is expected by the projections to find himself in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets. As it relates to air yards, Darren Waller ranks in the towering 95th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a whopping 46.0 per game. With an exceptional 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (81st percentile) this year, Darren Waller places among the top TE receiving threats in the NFL. This year, the weak Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for a massive 78.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 8th-biggest rate in football.

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to attempt 37.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks. Jared Goff is positioned as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 251.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most efficient QBs in football this year, averaging an exceptional 7.92 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 83rd percentile.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to have just 124.1 total plays run: the lowest number among all games this week. The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Eagles this year (only 54.9 per game on average). Saquon Barkley has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0). Saquon Barkley's rushing efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 3.86 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.48 rate last year.