NFL Player Props and Best Projections

Play them straight or build a SGP with our FREE value projections: 

Matchups
Projections
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Props • Detroit

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Jared Goff
J. Goff
quarterback QB • Detroit
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
3.37
Best Odds
Prop
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
3.37
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.4% run rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. Jared Goff's 6.19 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season shows a meaningful boost in his running skills over last season's 3.58 mark. This year, the imposing Dallas Cowboys run defense has allowed a meager 5.12 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-smallest rate in football.

Jared Goff logo

Jared Goff

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 3.37
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
3.37

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.4% run rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. Jared Goff's 6.19 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season shows a meaningful boost in his running skills over last season's 3.58 mark. This year, the imposing Dallas Cowboys run defense has allowed a meager 5.12 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-smallest rate in football.

All Matchup props

Jared Goff Passing Yards Props • Detroit

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Jared Goff
J. Goff
quarterback QB • Detroit
Prop
249.5
Passing Yards
Projection
300.43
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football. With a terrific 8.06 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places among the most effective QBs in the NFL.

Jared Goff logo

Jared Goff

Prop: 249.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 300.43
Prop:
249.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
300.43

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football. With a terrific 8.06 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places among the most effective QBs in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Jacoby Brissett Passing Yards Props • Arizona

Los Angeles LA @ Arizona ARI
Jacoby Brissett
J. Brissett
quarterback QB • Arizona
Prop
244.5
Passing Yards
Projection
284.86
Best Odds

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league. Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (253.0) this year than he did last year (126.0).

Jacoby Brissett logo

Jacoby Brissett

Prop: 244.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 284.86
Prop:
244.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
284.86

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league. Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (253.0) this year than he did last year (126.0).

All Matchup props

Tyler Shough Passing Yards Props • New Orleans

New Orleans NO @ Tampa Bay TB
Tyler Shough
T. Shough
quarterback QB • New Orleans
Prop
218.5
Passing Yards
Projection
187.02
Best Odds

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Tyler Shough logo

Tyler Shough

Prop: 218.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 187.02
Prop:
218.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
187.02

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

All Matchup props

Kirk Cousins Passing Yards Props • Atlanta

Seattle SEA @ Atlanta ATL
Kirk Cousins
K. Cousins
quarterback QB • Atlanta
Prop
191.5
Passing Yards
Projection
251.43
Best Odds
Prop
191.5 Passing Yards
Projection
251.43
Best Odds
Projection Rating

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 60.2% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Atlanta Falcons. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Kirk Cousins logo

Kirk Cousins

Prop: 191.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 251.43
Prop:
191.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
251.43

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 60.2% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Atlanta Falcons. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
12.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
23.09
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). With an outstanding total of 6.6 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (86th percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 12.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 23.09
Prop:
12.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
23.09

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). With an outstanding total of 6.6 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (86th percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

All Matchup props

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Arizona ARI
Matthew Stafford
M. Stafford
quarterback QB • L.A. Rams
Prop
255.5
Passing Yards
Projection
304.09
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.5 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs. Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 248.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Matthew Stafford logo

Matthew Stafford

Prop: 255.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 304.09
Prop:
255.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
304.09

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.5 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs. Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 248.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

All Matchup props

Travis Kelce Receiving Yards Props • Kansas City

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Travis Kelce
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
50.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
33.53
Best Odds

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure. After averaging 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has produced significantly less this season, currently averaging 43.0 per game. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 figure last season. The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Travis Kelce logo

Travis Kelce

Prop: 50.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 33.53
Prop:
50.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
33.53

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure. After averaging 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has produced significantly less this season, currently averaging 43.0 per game. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 figure last season. The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.

All Matchup props

Isiah Pacheco Rushing Yards Props • Kansas City

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Isiah Pacheco
I. Pacheco
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
27.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
41.1
Best Odds

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.

Isiah Pacheco logo

Isiah Pacheco

Prop: 27.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 41.1
Prop:
27.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
41.1

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.

All Matchup props

Jahmyr Gibbs Receiving Yards Props • Detroit

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Jahmyr Gibbs
J. Gibbs
running back RB • Detroit
Prop
35.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
20.98
Best Odds

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Lions. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played). The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board. Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating just 7.01 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.87 figure last year.

Jahmyr Gibbs logo

Jahmyr Gibbs

Prop: 35.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 20.98
Prop:
35.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
20.98

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Lions. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played). The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board. Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating just 7.01 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.87 figure last year.

All Matchup props

Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Props • Minnesota

Washington WAS @ Minnesota MIN
Justin Jefferson
J. Jefferson
wide receiver WR • Minnesota
Prop
60.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
79.12
Best Odds
Prop
60.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
79.12
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. With an elite 97.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 9.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs. This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded a massive 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

Justin Jefferson logo

Justin Jefferson

Prop: 60.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 79.12
Prop:
60.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
79.12

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. With an elite 97.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 9.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs. This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded a massive 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Rome Odunze Receiving Yards Props • Chicago

Chicago CHI @ Green Bay GB
Rome Odunze
R. Odunze
wide receiver WR • Chicago
Prop
35.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
46.3
Best Odds
Prop
35.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
46.3
Best Odds
Projection Rating

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Rome Odunze logo

Rome Odunze

Prop: 35.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 46.3
Prop:
35.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
46.3

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh PIT @ Baltimore BAL
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
195.5
Passing Yards
Projection
220.98
Best Odds

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.43 seconds per snap. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 195.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 220.98
Prop:
195.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
220.98

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.43 seconds per snap. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Props • Green Bay

Chicago CHI @ Green Bay GB
Josh Jacobs
J. Jacobs
running back RB • Green Bay
Prop
80.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
67.95
Best Odds
Prop
80.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
67.95
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The model projects the Packers to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Josh Jacobs's 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates an impressive regression in his running ability over last season's 80.0 mark.

Josh Jacobs logo

Josh Jacobs

Prop: 80.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 67.95
Prop:
80.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
67.95

The model projects the Packers to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Josh Jacobs's 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates an impressive regression in his running ability over last season's 80.0 mark.

All Matchup props

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Props • Philadelphia

Philadelphia PHI @ Los Angeles LAC
Jalen Hurts
J. Hurts
quarterback QB • Philadelphia
Prop
186.5
Passing Yards
Projection
208.89
Best Odds
Prop
186.5 Passing Yards
Projection
208.89
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Jalen Hurts logo

Jalen Hurts

Prop: 186.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 208.89
Prop:
186.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
208.89

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

All Matchup props

Jahmyr Gibbs Receptions Made Props • Detroit

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Jahmyr Gibbs
J. Gibbs
running back RB • Detroit
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.57
Best Odds

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Lions. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played). The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Jahmyr Gibbs logo

Jahmyr Gibbs

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.57
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.57

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Lions. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played). The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

All Matchup props

Woody Marks Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
50.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
62.33
Best Odds
Prop
50.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
62.33
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

Woody Marks logo

Woody Marks

Prop: 50.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 62.33
Prop:
50.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
62.33

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

All Matchup props

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Props • Cincinnati

Cincinnati CIN @ Buffalo BUF
Joe Burrow
J. Burrow
quarterback QB • Cincinnati
Prop
248.5
Passing Yards
Projection
272.9
Best Odds

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Joe Burrow logo

Joe Burrow

Prop: 248.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 272.9
Prop:
248.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
272.9

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

Cam Ward Passing Yards Props • Tennessee

Tennessee TEN @ Cleveland CLE
Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
182.5
Passing Yards
Projection
164.89
Best Odds

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year. This year, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has given up a measly 194.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

Cam Ward logo

Cam Ward

Prop: 182.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 164.89
Prop:
182.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
164.89

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year. This year, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has given up a measly 194.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Colston Loveland Receiving Yards Props • Chicago

Chicago CHI @ Green Bay GB
Colston Loveland
C. Loveland
tight end TE • Chicago
Prop
32.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
26.57
Best Odds
Prop
32.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
26.57
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This year, the formidable Packers defense has given up a measly 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-fewest in football. The Packers pass defense has shown good efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 5.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football. The Packers safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Colston Loveland logo

Colston Loveland

Prop: 32.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 26.57
Prop:
32.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
26.57

This year, the formidable Packers defense has given up a measly 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-fewest in football. The Packers pass defense has shown good efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 5.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football. The Packers safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

All Matchup props

Isiah Pacheco Receiving Yards Props • Kansas City

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Isiah Pacheco
I. Pacheco
running back RB • Kansas City
Prop
6.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
10.24
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. Isiah Pacheco's 50.2% Route% this season represents a meaningful boost in his passing game volume over last season's 33.5% figure. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

Isiah Pacheco logo

Isiah Pacheco

Prop: 6.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 10.24
Prop:
6.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
10.24

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. Isiah Pacheco's 50.2% Route% this season represents a meaningful boost in his passing game volume over last season's 33.5% figure. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

All Matchup props

Shedeur Sanders Passing Yards Props • Cleveland

Tennessee TEN @ Cleveland CLE
Shedeur Sanders
S. Sanders
quarterback QB • Cleveland
Prop
159.5
Passing Yards
Projection
175.16
Best Odds

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football versus the Titans defense this year (74.5% Adjusted Completion%). The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Tennessee's group of CBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Shedeur Sanders logo

Shedeur Sanders

Prop: 159.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 175.16
Prop:
159.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
175.16

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football versus the Titans defense this year (74.5% Adjusted Completion%). The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Tennessee's group of CBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Nico Collins
N. Collins
wide receiver WR • Houston
Prop
70.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
61.24
Best Odds

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. Nico Collins has accumulated significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (75.0). Nico Collins's 60.8% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 67.1% mark. Nico Collins's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.18 figure last season. The Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency against wide receivers this year, giving up 7.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in football.

Nico Collins logo

Nico Collins

Prop: 70.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 61.24
Prop:
70.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
61.24

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. Nico Collins has accumulated significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (75.0). Nico Collins's 60.8% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 67.1% mark. Nico Collins's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.18 figure last season. The Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency against wide receivers this year, giving up 7.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in football.

All Matchup props

Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Dalton Schultz
D. Schultz
tight end TE • Houston
Prop
39.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
32.73
Best Odds

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. Dalton Schultz comes in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging just 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile. Dalton Schultz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a substantial decrease in his efficiency in space over last year's 3.9% rate. The Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Dalton Schultz logo

Dalton Schultz

Prop: 39.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 32.73
Prop:
39.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
32.73

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. Dalton Schultz comes in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging just 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile. Dalton Schultz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a substantial decrease in his efficiency in space over last year's 3.9% rate. The Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

Lamar Jackson Passing Yards Props • Baltimore

Pittsburgh PIT @ Baltimore BAL
Lamar Jackson
L. Jackson
quarterback QB • Baltimore
Prop
224.5
Passing Yards
Projection
208.49
Best Odds

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. At a massive 30.26 seconds per play, the Baltimore Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in the league (context-neutralized) this year. The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 31.2 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year.

Lamar Jackson logo

Lamar Jackson

Prop: 224.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 208.49
Prop:
224.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
208.49

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. At a massive 30.26 seconds per play, the Baltimore Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in the league (context-neutralized) this year. The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 31.2 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year.

All Matchup props

Cam Ward Passing Completions Props • Tennessee

Tennessee TEN @ Cleveland CLE
Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
19.5
Passing Completions
Projection
14.61
Best Odds

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

Cam Ward logo

Cam Ward

Prop: 19.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 14.61
Prop:
19.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
14.61

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Props • Kansas City

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Patrick Mahomes
P. Mahomes
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
20.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
26.01
Best Odds

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. After accounting for 9.3% of his team's rush attempts last year, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the run game this year, now making up 16.9%. Patrick Mahomes has rushed for a lot more yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

Patrick Mahomes logo

Patrick Mahomes

Prop: 20.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 26.01
Prop:
20.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
26.01

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. After accounting for 9.3% of his team's rush attempts last year, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the run game this year, now making up 16.9%. Patrick Mahomes has rushed for a lot more yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

All Matchup props

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ New York NYJ
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
203.5
Passing Yards
Projection
219.26
Best Odds
Prop
203.5 Passing Yards
Projection
219.26
Best Odds
Projection Rating

This year, the porous Jets defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 7.90 yards. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

Tua Tagovailoa logo

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 203.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 219.26
Prop:
203.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
219.26

This year, the porous Jets defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 7.90 yards. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

All Matchup props

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Javonte Williams
J. Williams
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
10.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
14.23
Best Odds
Prop
10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
14.23
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Javonte Williams logo

Javonte Williams

Prop: 10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 14.23
Prop:
10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
14.23

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

All Matchup props

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Props • Tampa Bay

New Orleans NO @ Tampa Bay TB
Baker Mayfield
B. Mayfield
quarterback QB • Tampa Bay
Prop
216.5
Passing Yards
Projection
232.28
Best Odds

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 132.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Baker Mayfield logo

Baker Mayfield

Prop: 216.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 232.28
Prop:
216.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
232.28

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 132.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Props • Buffalo

Cincinnati CIN @ Buffalo BUF
Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
31.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
37.65
Best Odds
Prop
31.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
37.65
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script. The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is expected by the projection model to notch the 2nd-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.5. With a stellar rate of 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (89th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best rushing quarterbacks in football this year. Opposing squads have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

Josh Allen logo

Josh Allen

Prop: 31.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 37.65
Prop:
31.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
37.65

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script. The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is expected by the projection model to notch the 2nd-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.5. With a stellar rate of 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (89th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best rushing quarterbacks in football this year. Opposing squads have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

All Matchup props

George Pickens Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
George Pickens
G. Pickens
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
76.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
85.8
Best Odds

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

George Pickens logo

George Pickens

Prop: 76.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 85.8
Prop:
76.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
85.8

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

All Matchup props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Props • Seattle

Seattle SEA @ Atlanta ATL
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
J. Smith-Njigba
wide receiver WR • Seattle
Prop
84.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
93.95
Best Odds
Prop
84.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
93.95
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to garner 10.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a more important option in his offense's air attack this season (36.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.3%). Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 94.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a significant gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 69.0 figure.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba logo

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Prop: 84.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 93.95
Prop:
84.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
93.95

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to garner 10.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a more important option in his offense's air attack this season (36.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.3%). Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 94.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a significant gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 69.0 figure.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Passing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
232.5
Passing Yards
Projection
218.74
Best Odds

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-fewest in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 232.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 218.74
Prop:
232.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
218.74

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-fewest in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Travis Kelce Receptions Made Props • Kansas City

Houston HOU @ Kansas City KC
Travis Kelce
T. Kelce
tight end TE • Kansas City
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.25
Best Odds

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure. Travis Kelce's receiving skills have worsened this season, compiling a measly 4.9 adjusted catches vs 6.1 last season. The Texans defensive ends project as the best collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

Travis Kelce logo

Travis Kelce

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.25
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.25

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure. Travis Kelce's receiving skills have worsened this season, compiling a measly 4.9 adjusted catches vs 6.1 last season. The Texans defensive ends project as the best collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their pass rush.

All Matchup props

Matthew Stafford Passing Completions Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Arizona ARI
Matthew Stafford
M. Stafford
quarterback QB • L.A. Rams
Prop
22.5
Passing Completions
Projection
26.36
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.5 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs. As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Arizona's group of DEs has been terrible this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

Matthew Stafford logo

Matthew Stafford

Prop: 22.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 26.36
Prop:
22.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
26.36

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.5 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs. As it relates to defensive ends getting after the quarterback, Arizona's group of DEs has been terrible this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

All Matchup props

Sam Darnold Passing Yards Props • Seattle

Seattle SEA @ Atlanta ATL
Sam Darnold
S. Darnold
quarterback QB • Seattle
Prop
231.5
Passing Yards
Projection
244.27
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. With a fantastic 68.1% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most on-target passers in the league. With a stellar 8.43 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL.

Sam Darnold logo

Sam Darnold

Prop: 231.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 244.27
Prop:
231.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
244.27

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. With a fantastic 68.1% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most on-target passers in the league. With a stellar 8.43 adjusted yards-per-target (97th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most effective quarterbacks in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Matthew Stafford Passing Attempts Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Arizona ARI
Matthew Stafford
M. Stafford
quarterback QB • L.A. Rams
Prop
34.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
37.94
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.5 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.

Matthew Stafford logo

Matthew Stafford

Prop: 34.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 37.94
Prop:
34.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
37.94

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.5 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs.

All Matchup props

Kenneth Walker III Rushing Yards Props • Seattle

Seattle SEA @ Atlanta ATL
Kenneth Walker III
K. Walker III
running back RB • Seattle
Prop
60.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
66.66
Best Odds
Prop
60.5 Rushing Yards
Projection
66.66
Best Odds
Projection Rating

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a reliance on running than their typical approach. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to be the 8th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. With a stellar rate of 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Kenneth Walker III places as one of the leading pure runners in football this year. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-most adjusted yards in football (132 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Kenneth Walker III logo

Kenneth Walker III

Prop: 60.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 66.66
Prop:
60.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
66.66

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a reliance on running than their typical approach. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to be the 8th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. With a stellar rate of 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Kenneth Walker III places as one of the leading pure runners in football this year. Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-most adjusted yards in football (132 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

All Matchup props

Justin Herbert Passing Yards Props • L.A. Chargers

Philadelphia PHI @ Los Angeles LAC
Justin Herbert
J. Herbert
quarterback QB • L.A. Chargers
Prop
209.5
Passing Yards
Projection
220.64
Best Odds
Prop
209.5 Passing Yards
Projection
220.64
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. At the present time, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chargers. The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average). The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline. Justin Herbert has attempted 34.1 throws per game this year, grading out in the 87th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

Justin Herbert logo

Justin Herbert

Prop: 209.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 220.64
Prop:
209.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
220.64

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. At the present time, the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (63.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Chargers. The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average). The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline. Justin Herbert has attempted 34.1 throws per game this year, grading out in the 87th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks.

All Matchup props

Tyler Shough Passing Completions Props • New Orleans

New Orleans NO @ Tampa Bay TB
Tyler Shough
T. Shough
quarterback QB • New Orleans
Prop
21.5
Passing Completions
Projection
18.53
Best Odds

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Tyler Shough logo

Tyler Shough

Prop: 21.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 18.53
Prop:
21.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
18.53

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

All Matchup props

Dak Prescott Passing Yards Props • Dallas

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Dak Prescott
D. Prescott
quarterback QB • Dallas
Prop
265.5
Passing Yards
Projection
277.49
Best Odds

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). With a fantastic tally of 266.0 adjusted passing yards per game (97th percentile), Dak Prescott ranks as one of the top passers in the NFL this year.

Dak Prescott logo

Dak Prescott

Prop: 265.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 277.49
Prop:
265.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
277.49

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). With a fantastic tally of 266.0 adjusted passing yards per game (97th percentile), Dak Prescott ranks as one of the top passers in the NFL this year.

All Matchup props

Jahmyr Gibbs Rushing Yards Props • Detroit

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Jahmyr Gibbs
J. Gibbs
running back RB • Detroit
Prop
77.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
71.92
Best Odds

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Jahmyr Gibbs logo

Jahmyr Gibbs

Prop: 77.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 71.92
Prop:
77.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
71.92

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

All Matchup props

Jacoby Brissett Passing Attempts Props • Arizona

Los Angeles LA @ Arizona ARI
Jacoby Brissett
J. Brissett
quarterback QB • Arizona
Prop
37.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
41.7
Best Odds

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

Jacoby Brissett logo

Jacoby Brissett

Prop: 37.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 41.7
Prop:
37.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
41.7

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

All Matchup props

Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Jake Ferguson
J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
37.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
42.1
Best Odds

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Jake Ferguson logo

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 37.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 42.1
Prop:
37.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
42.1

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

All Matchup props

Josh Allen Passing Yards Props • Buffalo

Cincinnati CIN @ Buffalo BUF
Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
234.5
Passing Yards
Projection
225.18
Best Odds

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projections to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.3.

Josh Allen logo

Josh Allen

Prop: 234.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 225.18
Prop:
234.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
225.18

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see just 127.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is forecasted by the projections to have the 4th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 31.3.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Attempts Props • Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh PIT @ Baltimore BAL
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
30.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
34.84
Best Odds

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.43 seconds per snap. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 30.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 34.84
Prop:
30.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
34.84

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.43 seconds per snap. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Jared Goff Passing Completions Props • Detroit

Dallas DAL @ Detroit DET
Jared Goff
J. Goff
quarterback QB • Detroit
Prop
21.5
Passing Completions
Projection
23.98
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football versus the Cowboys defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%).

Jared Goff logo

Jared Goff

Prop: 21.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 23.98
Prop:
21.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
23.98

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in football versus the Cowboys defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%).

All Matchup props

Sam Darnold Passing Completions Props • Seattle

Seattle SEA @ Atlanta ATL
Sam Darnold
S. Darnold
quarterback QB • Seattle
Prop
18.5
Passing Completions
Projection
20.83
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. With a fantastic 68.1% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most on-target passers in the league.

Sam Darnold logo

Sam Darnold

Prop: 18.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 20.83
Prop:
18.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
20.83

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. With a fantastic 68.1% Adjusted Completion% (84th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold places among the most on-target passers in the league.

All Matchup props

Sam Darnold Passing Attempts Props • Seattle

Seattle SEA @ Atlanta ATL
Sam Darnold
S. Darnold
quarterback QB • Seattle
Prop
28.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
30.78
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

Sam Darnold logo

Sam Darnold

Prop: 28.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 30.78
Prop:
28.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
30.78

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

All NFL Player Props

Click the game below to see that game's props.

December 4

Dallas DALat Detroit DET 20:15 ET

December 7

Pittsburgh PITat Baltimore BAL 13:00 ET Seattle SEAat Atlanta ATL 13:00 ET Tennessee TENat Cleveland CLE 13:00 ET Miami MIAat N.Y. Jets NYJ 13:00 ET New Orleans NOat Tampa Bay TB 13:00 ET Indianapolis INDat Jacksonville JAC 13:00 ET Washington WASat Minnesota MIN 13:00 ET Cincinnati CINat Buffalo BUF 13:00 ET Chicago CHIat Green Bay GB 16:25 ET L.A. Rams LAat Arizona ARI 16:25 ET Houston HOUat Kansas City KC 20:20 ET

December 8

Philadelphia PHIat L.A. Chargers LAC 20:15 ET
Visit all available NFL odds View now
Visit NFL Scores + Matchups View now
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo