Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average). The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 4.95 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to start backup quarterback Mac Jones this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average). The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year. Mac Jones's throwing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 64.9% to 70.0%.
The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to start backup quarterback Mac Jones this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average). The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year. Mac Jones's 284.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a material boost in his passing prowess over last season's 166.0 mark.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. This year, the porous Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-worst in the league. This year, the weak Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered a whopping 89.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the biggest rate in football.
A running game script is implied by the Rams being a 3-point favorite in this game. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are expected by the predictive model to call 66.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week. While Matthew Stafford has accounted for 3.1% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Los Angeles's ground game in this contest at 8.3%.
A running game script is suggested by the 49ers being a 3-point favorite in this game. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average). The Arizona Cardinals defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 4.95 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average).
At the present time, the 7th-most run-centric offense in the NFL (41.1% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New York Giants. The predictive model expects the New York Giants offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap. The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. The Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board. The Atlanta cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The model projects the Seahawks to be the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate. The leading projections forecast Kenneth Walker III to accrue 13.4 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile among RBs. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 55.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (82nd percentile). Kenneth Walker III's ground effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 4.55 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.59 rate last season.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board. This year, the weak Chicago Bears defense has surrendered a colossal 271.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 4th-most in the league.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 8th-greatest rate among all teams this week. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average). The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. This week, Jake Ferguson is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 96th percentile among TEs with 7.7 targets. After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has undergone big improvement this season, currently boasting 35.0 per game.
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.9%) versus WRs this year (69.9%).
The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.58 seconds per play.
Right now, the 4th-most run-oriented team in football (42.8% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Panthers. This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons run defense has been torched for a colossal 145.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 5th-worst in the NFL. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Atlanta's unit has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Jalen Hurts to total 8.9 carries in this week's game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. While Jalen Hurts has received 23.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Philadelphia's ground game in this week's contest at 29.9%.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Deebo Samuel Sr. to garner 8.5 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his offense's passing game this year (27.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.6%). Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 63.6% to 79.2%.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year. Kenneth Walker III's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 88.6% to 91.7%.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. This year, the feeble Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for a whopping 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the most in football.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan. The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The model projects Josh Allen to throw 29.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs. This year, the formidable Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered a feeble 68.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 10th-best rate in the league.
The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.58 seconds per play. Tyjae Spears has received 31.7% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs. Tyjae Spears's 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects an impressive progression in his rushing prowess over last year's 3.6 mark. Tyjae Spears comes in as one of the best running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.27 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 75th percentile.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 67.8 plays on offense in this game: the most on the slate this week. The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs. The Steelers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a massive 86.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the worst in football. This year, the porous Bengals defense has surrendered the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 9.49 yards.
The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency versus wide receivers this year, surrendering 9.26 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in football.
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. The Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board. The Atlanta cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.57 seconds per play. The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to notch 13.9 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Texans being a massive 7-point favorite in this game. The leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to be the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by the predictive model to run 65.8 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in football have been called by the Texans this year (a staggering 60.7 per game on average). This year, the weak Tennessee Titans run defense has conceded a colossal 149.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in football.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in football (149 per game) versus the Cowboys defense this year. The Cowboys linebackers project as the worst group of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 135.7 total plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.3%) vs. wideouts this year (67.3%).
The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.7 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. With a high 96.8% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson ranks among the wideouts with the highest volume in football. This year, the weak Bears defense has conceded a monstrous 168.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-worst in the NFL.
The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 59.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Jaguars have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.
With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on rushing than their standard game plan. The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect James Cook to earn 21.1 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs. After taking on 50.9% of his offense's carries last season, James Cook has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, currently taking on 66.8%. James Cook has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (94.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).
With a 7-point advantage, the Packers are a massive favorite in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan. The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers to be the 5th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume. Jordan Love has run for significantly more yards per game (14.0) this year than he did last year (6.0). This year, the imposing New York Giants run defense has conceded a paltry 5.78 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 32nd-best rate in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year. As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Minnesota's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average). The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year. Brock Purdy ranks as one of the leading passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 250.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
This week's spread indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Ravens, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points. The model projects the Ravens to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 49.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 51.6 plays per game. Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with lessened passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. In this week's game, Courtland Sutton is projected by the projections to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among wide receivers with 8.3 targets. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to run 66.6 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-highest number among all teams this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average).
This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded a colossal 87.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-worst rate in football.
With a 7-point advantage, the Packers are a massive favorite in this week's contest, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal game plan. The projections expect the Packers as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume. Our trusted projections expect Jordan Love to throw 31.9 passes in this game, on average: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 62.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week. The Dolphins have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 51.7 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Commanders defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the NFL this year with their run defense.
Right now, the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (41.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Cleveland Browns. The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game. Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being forecasted in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and increased rush volume. This year, the tough Baltimore Ravens run defense has surrendered a puny 4.99 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 24th-smallest rate in the league.
An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Texans being a massive 7-point favorite in this game. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 54.4% of their downs: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Opposing teams have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league. Nico Collins's 61.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies a noteworthy decline in his receiving talent over last year's 75.0 mark. Nico Collins's 57.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents a remarkable diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 67.1% rate.
The Dolphins rank as the 8th-most run-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.5% run rate. Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-most adjusted yards in football (133 per game) against the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The New York Giants may throw the ball less this week (and hand the ball off more) given that they be rolling out backup QB Jameis Winston. The Giants are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects the New York Giants offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap. Opposing offenses have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game against the Packers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL. The predictive model expects Wan'Dale Robinson to notch 10.9 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 62.1% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest frequency on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 58.9 plays per game. Kareem Hunt's 40.4% snap rate this year signifies a noteable reduction in his offensive usage over last year's 51.7% figure. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Chiefs ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year.
The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. This year, the weak Dolphins defense has allowed a massive 76.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-highest rate in the league. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has displayed poor efficiency this year, conceding 7.87 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the NFL.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. This year, the shaky Dallas Cowboys defense has yielded a staggering 276.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 2nd-worst in the league.
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