NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) this year. The Chicago offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board. The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.2%) vs. wide receivers this year (67.2%).

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. C.J. Stroud has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (179.0) this year than he did last year (205.0). With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

The Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.5% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game. The New England Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.3%) vs. wideouts this year (67.3%). The Patriots pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 8.45 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-most in the league.

The Buffalo Bills may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more carries) since they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Josh Allen. Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see just 125.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: most in the league. The model projects Khalil Shakir to accumulate 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With a sizeable 20.5% Target Rate (79th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

An extreme rushing game script is indicated by the Rams being a huge 10.5-point favorite in this week's game. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) usually cause worse passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and higher run volume. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Carolina's collection of LBs has been awful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The projections expect the Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Packers this year (only 54.9 per game on average). The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. The leading projections forecast Jordan Love to attempt 32.3 passes this week, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.8 per game) this year.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

The Panthers are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 130.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The model projects Bryce Young to attempt 35.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all QBs. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (34.4 per game) this year. The Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

A rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest.

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script. The projections expect the Eagles as the most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 48.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 127.5 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week. The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. In this game, Jalen Hurts is predicted by the projections to accrue the most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 9.0.

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% pass rate. The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to have only 127.5 total plays run: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week. The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year. Saquon Barkley has run a route on 59.9% of his team's passing plays this year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs. Our trusted projections expect Saquon Barkley to garner 3.3 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 95th percentile among running backs.

The Panthers are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 130.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (34.4 per game) this year. The Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board. This year, the deficient Rams defense has been gouged for a whopping 151.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts: the worst in the NFL.

The Panthers are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see 130.6 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The Rams defense has been something of pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (34.4 per game) this year. While Tommy Tremble has garnered 7.9% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a more integral piece of Carolina's pass game in this week's contest at 13.0%. The Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Los Angeles Rams. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. Kyren Williams's 69.2% Snap% this season signifies a material reduction in his offensive usage over last season's 86.6% rate. The projections expect Kyren Williams to accumulate 2.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs. Kyren Williams has notched quite a few more air yards this season (8.0 per game) than he did last season (-2.0 per game).

At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.7% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Los Angeles Rams. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.6 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. Colby Parkinson's 30.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a remarkable gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 19.0 mark. Colby Parkinson's 76.5% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a meaningful growth in his pass-catching talent over last year's 65.2% mark. Colby Parkinson's 8.3 adjusted yards per target this season represents an impressive gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 6.2 figure.

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 59.5% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Chargers have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game. The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86%) versus running backs this year (86.0%).

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Nico Collins has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this season than he did last season (75.0). Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.5%. Nico Collins's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.18 mark last season. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

The Philadelphia Eagles may take to the air less in this week's contest (and call more carries) because they be rolling out backup QB Tanner McKee. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.0 plays per game. Saquon Barkley has run for many fewer adjusted yards per game (63.0) this season than he did last season (118.0). Saquon Barkley's 3.8 adjusted yards per carry this year signifies a noteworthy regression in his running ability over last year's 5.5 mark. Saquon Barkley has been one of the weakest running backs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.71 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 24th percentile.

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) vs. running backs this year (85.6%). The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Bears to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 7th-fewest yards in the NFL (just 196.0 adjusted yards per game) versus the Packers defense this year. This year, the daunting Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a paltry 7.1 yards. The Packers safeties project as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

A rushing game script is implied by the Patriots being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run on the slate this week at 125.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.2 per game) this year. This year, the formidable Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered a mere 185.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-fewest in the NFL. Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in the league vs. the Chargers defense this year (65.7% Adjusted Completion%).

The projections expect the Packers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the Packers this year (only 54.9 per game on average). The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 29.8 per game) this year. Christian Watson's talent in generating extra yardage have worsened this year, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.07 figure last year.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. In this game, Christian McCaffrey is forecasted by the predictive model to position himself in the 95th percentile among RBs with 18.1 carries. Christian McCaffrey has been much more involved in his offense's ground game this season (68.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (58.1%). With a stellar record of 68.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (94th percentile), Christian McCaffrey rates among the best running backs in football this year.

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game. As it relates to safeties getting after the quarterback, Buffalo's safety corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the projection model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week. The highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bears this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The Packers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing offenses to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) this year. With a remarkable 48.1% Route Participation Rate (83rd percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift rates as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the league. This week, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by the projections to place in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs with 2.7 targets.

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The Jaguars have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 58.9 plays per game. Brenton Strange's 73.9% Route Participation Rate this season represents a remarkable boost in his passing game utilization over last season's 45.2% mark. The leading projections forecast Brenton Strange to total 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs. Brenton Strange has posted far more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).

The model projects the Jaguars to call the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. Opposing offenses have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: fewest in the NFL. With a lackluster 60.5% Adjusted Completion% (16th percentile) this year, Trevor Lawrence ranks as one of the least accurate passers in the league. This year, the fierce Bills defense has yielded a mere 172.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest level in football vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).