A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to notch 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs. The leading projections forecast Kenneth Gainwell to be much more involved in his team's pass attack in this game (22.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played).
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.6 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.
A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (62.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans. Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Texans are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a whopping 60.4 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Colts defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.
The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year.
With a fantastic 67.7% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold ranks among the most on-target QBs in football. Sam Darnold grades out as one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 8.29 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 90th percentile.
The Seattle Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The Seahawks have been the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.4% run rate. Zach Charbonnet has earned 39.6% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs. With a stellar tally of 42.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (75th percentile), Zach Charbonnet places among the leading pure rushers in the NFL this year.
The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year. This week, Jauan Jennings is expected by the model to find himself in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.1 targets.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football this year.
With a stellar 90.4% Adjusted Catch Rate (85th percentile) this year, Kenneth Walker III has been among the best possession receivers in the league among RBs. Kenneth Walker III's 7.8 adjusted yards per target this season conveys a noteworthy growth in his pass-catching skills over last season's 6.1 rate.
The Ravens will be starting backup QB Tyler Huntley in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Baltimore Ravens have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.7 plays per game. Derrick Henry has run for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (92.0) this year than he did last year (118.0). The Steelers defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.11 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Seattle Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The Seahawks have been the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.4% run rate. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 51.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league when it comes to running backs (81st percentile). Kenneth Walker III's ground efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 4.47 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.59 mark last season.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.8 per game) this year. This year, the tough Falcons defense has conceded a mere 212.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing QBs: the 10th-fewest in football. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (67.3% Adjusted Completion%).
An extreme running game script is implied by the Titans being a huge 13.5-point favorite in this week's game. The leading projections forecast the Titans to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense this year: most in the NFL. The Titans offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year.
The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.5% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The predictive model expects Rico Dowdle to earn 16.2 rush attempts in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs. Rico Dowdle has picked up 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (87th percentile).
This year, the stout Carolina Panthers run defense has surrendered a mere 4.80 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 23rd-lowest rate in the NFL. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Carolina's group of LBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The projections expect the Carolina Panthers as the 9th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.5% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Bryce Young's running efficiency (6.12 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (76th percentile among quarterbacks).
As it relates to air yards, Zach Charbonnet grades out in the towering 90th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an impressive 2.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). Zach Charbonnet's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, averaging 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 5.99 figure last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 54.6 plays per game. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. Bijan Robinson's 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a noteable decline in his rushing skills over last season's 81.0 rate. The New Orleans Saints safeties grade out as the 4th-best safety corps in football this year in regard to run defense.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.7 per game) this year. Opposing teams have passed for the 8th-fewest yards in the league (just 210.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Panthers defense this year.
The Seattle Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context). The Seahawks have been the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 41.4% run rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.6 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Falcons profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year.
A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. The projections expect Pat Freiermuth to earn 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among TEs. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.6 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The leading projections forecast Kirk Cousins to attempt 36.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most among all quarterbacks.
The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year. The model projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 6.8 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs. The Seahawks defense has conceded the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (39.0) versus RBs this year.
The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year. This week, George Kittle is expected by the model to slot into the 96th percentile among TEs with 7.8 targets. This year, the anemic Seahawks defense has conceded a colossal 61.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 8th-most in the NFL.
A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack statistics across the board. Aaron Rodgers's throwing accuracy has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 63.8% to 66.8%.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.7 per game) this year.
Kenneth Gainwell has been much more involved in his offense's running game this season (29.3% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (11.4%). Kenneth Gainwell has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (30.0) this year than he did last year (18.0). Kenneth Gainwell's 4.9 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects a significant improvement in his running talent over last year's 3.8 rate.
With an exceptional record of 2.45 yards-after-contact (88th percentile), Baker Mayfield has been among the best running quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season. This year, the stout Carolina Panthers run defense has surrendered a mere 4.80 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing squads: the 23rd-lowest rate in the NFL. As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Carolina's group of LBs has been terrible this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
A passing game script is suggested by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Colts ranks as the best in the NFL this year.
A running game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Opposing teams have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to notch 7.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs. Kenneth Gainwell's receiving skills have gotten a boost this season, compiling 3.7 adjusted receptions compared to just 1.0 last season.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Falcons, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.8 per game) this year. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the league against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (67.3% Adjusted Completion%).
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 12 points. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 54.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week. This week, Trevor Lawrence is projected by our trusted projection set to total the 11th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.2.
The Panthers pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.5%) vs. tight ends this year (79.5%). This year, the anemic Carolina Panthers defense has been torched for the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a staggering 8.96 yards.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 54.5% of their plays: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Carolina Panthers, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.7 per game) this year. The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 8th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to pass rush.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have 137.6 total plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down. The model projects Bijan Robinson to accrue 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs. Bijan Robinson has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (20.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (14.7%). Bijan Robinson has totaled a colossal 5.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among running backs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Jaguars, who are a massive favorite by 12 points. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jaguars to pass on 54.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week. This week, Trevor Lawrence is projected by our trusted projection set to total the 11th-fewest pass attempts out of all QBs with 32.2. Trevor Lawrence grades out as one of the least accurate passers in football this year with a 60.1% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 13th percentile.
In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers grades out as the 10th-best in football this year.
Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 9th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
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