NFL Player Props and Best Projections

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Matchups
Projections
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
2.42
Best Odds

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 2.42
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
2.42

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

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J.J. McCarthy Rushing Yards Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
J.J. McCarthy
J. McCarthy
quarterback QB • Minnesota
Prop
14.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
23.87
Best Odds

The Dallas Cowboys defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.15 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.

J.J. McCarthy logo

J.J. McCarthy

Prop: 14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 23.87
Prop:
14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
23.87

The Dallas Cowboys defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.15 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.

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Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Jonnu Smith
J. Smith
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
10.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
22.91
Best Odds

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. The Dolphins defense has surrendered the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (63.0) vs. tight ends this year. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 79.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-largest rate in football.

Jonnu Smith logo

Jonnu Smith

Prop: 10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 22.91
Prop:
10.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
22.91

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. The Dolphins defense has surrendered the 6th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (63.0) vs. tight ends this year. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 79.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-largest rate in football.

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J.J. McCarthy Passing Yards Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
J.J. McCarthy
J. McCarthy
quarterback QB • Minnesota
Prop
194.5
Passing Yards
Projection
234.76
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a colossal 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in the league.

J.J. McCarthy logo

J.J. McCarthy

Prop: 194.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 234.76
Prop:
194.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
234.76

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a colossal 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in the league.

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Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Jake Ferguson
J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
33.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
48.63
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Jake Ferguson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (67.0%).

Jake Ferguson logo

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 48.63
Prop:
33.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
48.63

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Jake Ferguson has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (77.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has played) than he did last year (67.0%).

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DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
DK Metcalf
D. Metcalf
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
53.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
65.81
Best Odds

With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (92nd percentile) this year, DK Metcalf rates among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league. The predictive model expects DK Metcalf to earn 8.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (66.6%).

DK Metcalf logo

DK Metcalf

Prop: 53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 65.81
Prop:
53.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
65.81

With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (92nd percentile) this year, DK Metcalf rates among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league. The predictive model expects DK Metcalf to earn 8.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (66.6%).

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Justin Jefferson Receiving Yards Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Justin Jefferson
J. Jefferson
wide receiver WR • Minnesota
Prop
60.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
77.38
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.

Justin Jefferson logo

Justin Jefferson

Prop: 60.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 77.38
Prop:
60.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
77.38

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.

All Matchup props

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Dak Prescott
D. Prescott
quarterback QB • Dallas
Prop
8.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
14.64
Best Odds

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. Dak Prescott's 12.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a noteworthy improvement in his rushing talent over last season's 6.0 figure. Dak Prescott's 5.33 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteworthy gain in his rushing prowess over last year's 4.48 figure.

Dak Prescott logo

Dak Prescott

Prop: 8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 14.64
Prop:
8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
14.64

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. Dak Prescott's 12.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season represents a noteworthy improvement in his rushing talent over last season's 6.0 figure. Dak Prescott's 5.33 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year illustrates a noteworthy gain in his rushing prowess over last year's 4.48 figure.

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Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Jaylen Warren
J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
49.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
61.84
Best Odds

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.5 carries. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (62.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.6%). Jaylen Warren has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (33.0). Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Jaylen Warren logo

Jaylen Warren

Prop: 49.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 61.84
Prop:
49.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
61.84

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.5 carries. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this season (62.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (25.6%). Jaylen Warren has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (33.0). Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (134 per game) against the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

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Tua Tagovailoa Rushing Yards Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
2.83
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.1% run rate.

Tua Tagovailoa logo

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 2.83
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
2.83

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 41.1% run rate.

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Dak Prescott Passing Yards Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Dak Prescott
D. Prescott
quarterback QB • Dallas
Prop
261.5
Passing Yards
Projection
287.29
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Dak Prescott's 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year represents a noteworthy improvement in his throwing ability over last year's 244.0 mark.

Dak Prescott logo

Dak Prescott

Prop: 261.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 287.29
Prop:
261.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
287.29

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Dak Prescott's 274.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year represents a noteworthy improvement in his throwing ability over last year's 244.0 mark.

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Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Jaylen Warren
J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
14.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
20.56
Best Odds

In this contest, Jaylen Warren is expected by the model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.3 targets. Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.3% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among RBs. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile. Jaylen Warren's 94.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a material progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.5% figure.

Jaylen Warren logo

Jaylen Warren

Prop: 14.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 20.56
Prop:
14.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
20.56

In this contest, Jaylen Warren is expected by the model to position himself in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.3 targets. Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 9.3% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among RBs. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. Jaylen Warren profiles as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging an excellent 19.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile. Jaylen Warren's 94.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a material progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.5% figure.

All Matchup props

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Javonte Williams
J. Williams
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
9.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
14.49
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Javonte Williams's 57.4% Route Participation% this year indicates a material boost in his passing attack utilization over last year's 44.1% figure.

Javonte Williams logo

Javonte Williams

Prop: 9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 14.49
Prop:
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
14.49

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Javonte Williams's 57.4% Route Participation% this year indicates a material boost in his passing attack utilization over last year's 44.1% figure.

All Matchup props

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
190.5
Passing Yards
Projection
209.42
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (259.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

Tua Tagovailoa logo

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 190.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 209.42
Prop:
190.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
209.42

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (259.0 per game) against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year.

All Matchup props

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
T.J. Hockenson
T. Hockenson
tight end TE • Minnesota
Prop
24.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
31.27
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. In this game, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets.

T.J. Hockenson logo

T.J. Hockenson

Prop: 24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 31.27
Prop:
24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
31.27

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. In this game, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.1 targets.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
210.5
Passing Yards
Projection
229.06
Best Odds

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 210.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 229.06
Prop:
210.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
229.06

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).

All Matchup props

George Pickens Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
George Pickens
G. Pickens
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
72.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
83.23
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect George Pickens to total 8.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

George Pickens logo

George Pickens

Prop: 72.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 83.23
Prop:
72.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
83.23

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect George Pickens to total 8.2 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

All Matchup props

De'Von Achane Receiving Yards Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
De'Von Achane
D. Achane
running back RB • Miami
Prop
27.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
33.61
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. De'Von Achane's 74.2% Route Participation% this year signifies a meaningful progression in his passing game usage over last year's 61.2% figure. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs. De'Von Achane has compiled a staggering 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (This might not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

De'Von Achane logo

De'Von Achane

Prop: 27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 33.61
Prop:
27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
33.61

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. De'Von Achane's 74.2% Route Participation% this year signifies a meaningful progression in his passing game usage over last year's 61.2% figure. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs. De'Von Achane has compiled a staggering 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among RBs. (This might not seem too impressive, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

All Matchup props

De'Von Achane Rushing Yards Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
De'Von Achane
D. Achane
running back RB • Miami
Prop
80.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
72.6
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game. The Pittsburgh defensive ends project as the 2nd-best DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

De'Von Achane logo

De'Von Achane

Prop: 80.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 72.6
Prop:
80.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
72.6

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game. The Pittsburgh defensive ends project as the 2nd-best DE corps in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

All Matchup props

Jonnu Smith Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Jonnu Smith
J. Smith
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.62
Best Odds

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 79.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-largest rate in football.

Jonnu Smith logo

Jonnu Smith

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.62
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.62

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 79.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-largest rate in football.

All Matchup props

Darren Waller Receiving Yards Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Darren Waller
D. Waller
tight end TE • Miami
Prop
24.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
30.29
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. When talking about air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the towering 88th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a staggering 40.0 per game. Darren Waller's 31.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 83rd percentile for TEs. With a stellar 37.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) this year, Darren Waller has been among the best pass-game tight ends in the league.

Darren Waller logo

Darren Waller

Prop: 24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 30.29
Prop:
24.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
30.29

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. When talking about air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the towering 88th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a staggering 40.0 per game. Darren Waller's 31.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 83rd percentile for TEs. With a stellar 37.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (79th percentile) this year, Darren Waller has been among the best pass-game tight ends in the league.

All Matchup props

J.J. McCarthy Passing Completions Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
J.J. McCarthy
J. McCarthy
quarterback QB • Minnesota
Prop
18.5
Passing Completions
Projection
20.76
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

J.J. McCarthy logo

J.J. McCarthy

Prop: 18.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 20.76
Prop:
18.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
20.76

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. This year, the porous Dallas Cowboys defense has been gouged for a whopping 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the highest rate in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Jaylen Waddle
J. Waddle
wide receiver WR • Miami
Prop
59.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
64.62
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. In this game, Jaylen Waddle is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets. After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last season, Jaylen Waddle has shown good development this season, currently sitting at 84.0 per game. Jaylen Waddle's 65.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 43.8.

Jaylen Waddle logo

Jaylen Waddle

Prop: 59.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 64.62
Prop:
59.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
64.62

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. In this game, Jaylen Waddle is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets. After accumulating 56.0 air yards per game last season, Jaylen Waddle has shown good development this season, currently sitting at 84.0 per game. Jaylen Waddle's 65.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 43.8.

All Matchup props

J.J. McCarthy Passing Attempts Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
J.J. McCarthy
J. McCarthy
quarterback QB • Minnesota
Prop
28.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
33.31
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

J.J. McCarthy logo

J.J. McCarthy

Prop: 28.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 33.31
Prop:
28.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
33.31

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Jake Ferguson Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Jake Ferguson
J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.72
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Jake Ferguson's 5.7 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a material boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 4.1 rate.

Jake Ferguson logo

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.72
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.72

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Jake Ferguson's 5.7 adjusted catches per game this year indicates a material boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 4.1 rate.

All Matchup props

Aaron Jones Sr. Rushing Yards Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Aaron Jones Sr.
A. Jones Sr.
running back RB • Minnesota
Prop
45.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
49.49
Best Odds

The Dallas Cowboys defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.15 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.

Aaron Jones Sr. logo

Aaron Jones Sr.

Prop: 45.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 49.49
Prop:
45.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
49.49

The Dallas Cowboys defense has produced the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding 5.15 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's group of LBs has been lousy this year, profiling as the worst in football. in football.

All Matchup props

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Attempts Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
27.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
30.8
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.

Tua Tagovailoa logo

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 27.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 30.8
Prop:
27.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
30.8

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.

All Matchup props

Dak Prescott Passing Completions Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Dak Prescott
D. Prescott
quarterback QB • Dallas
Prop
22.5
Passing Completions
Projection
25.74
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Dak Prescott's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant growth in his throwing precision over last year's 65.0% rate.

Dak Prescott logo

Dak Prescott

Prop: 22.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 25.74
Prop:
22.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
25.74

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Dak Prescott's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant growth in his throwing precision over last year's 65.0% rate.

All Matchup props

Aaron Jones Sr. Receiving Yards Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Aaron Jones Sr.
A. Jones Sr.
running back RB • Minnesota
Prop
19.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
18.08
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 51.5 plays per game. Aaron Jones has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (27.0). Aaron Jones's 70.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a significant decline in his receiving skills over last year's 88.8% mark. Aaron Jones's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a mere 5.52 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.79 figure last season.

Aaron Jones Sr. logo

Aaron Jones Sr.

Prop: 19.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 18.08
Prop:
19.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
18.08

The leading projections forecast the Vikings to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 51.5 plays per game. Aaron Jones has put up many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (15.0) this year than he did last year (27.0). Aaron Jones's 70.9% Adjusted Completion Rate this year illustrates a significant decline in his receiving skills over last year's 88.8% mark. Aaron Jones's receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, notching a mere 5.52 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 7.79 figure last season.

All Matchup props

Justin Jefferson Receptions Made Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Justin Jefferson
J. Jefferson
wide receiver WR • Minnesota
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.94
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.

Justin Jefferson logo

Justin Jefferson

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.94
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.94

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With an extraordinary 96.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson places among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.

All Matchup props

J.J. McCarthy Passing Touchdowns Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
J.J. McCarthy
J. McCarthy
quarterback QB • Minnesota
Prop
1.5
Passing Touchdowns
Projection
1.55
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Right now, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (63.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

J.J. McCarthy logo

J.J. McCarthy

Prop: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection: 1.55
Prop:
1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection:
1.55

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. Right now, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in football in the red zone (63.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

All Matchup props

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Completions Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
18.5
Passing Completions
Projection
20.29
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.

Tua Tagovailoa logo

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 18.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 20.29
Prop:
18.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
20.29

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Touchdowns Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
1.5
Passing Touchdowns
Projection
1.33
Best Odds

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week. The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a mere 50.8 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football. The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection: 1.33
Prop:
1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection:
1.33

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week. The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a mere 50.8 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football. The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Completions Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
20.5
Passing Completions
Projection
21.69
Best Odds

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 20.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 21.69
Prop:
20.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
21.69

The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the NFL against the Miami Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).

All Matchup props

Tua Tagovailoa Passing Touchdowns Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
1.5
Passing Touchdowns
Projection
1.04
Best Odds

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Dolphins grades out as the worst in football this year. Tua Tagovailoa's 66.6% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a remarkable regression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 73.5% mark.

Tua Tagovailoa logo

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection: 1.04
Prop:
1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection:
1.04

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.9% pass rate. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the predictive model to run only 62.3 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week. The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 52.4 plays per game. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Dolphins grades out as the worst in football this year. Tua Tagovailoa's 66.6% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a remarkable regression in his throwing accuracy over last season's 73.5% mark.

All Matchup props

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Javonte Williams
J. Williams
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
69.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
71.07
Best Odds

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. In this contest, Javonte Williams is predicted by the projections to finish in the 89th percentile among running backs with 18.4 rush attempts. Javonte Williams has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (81.0) this season than he did last season (31.0).

Javonte Williams logo

Javonte Williams

Prop: 69.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 71.07
Prop:
69.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
71.07

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. In this contest, Javonte Williams is predicted by the projections to finish in the 89th percentile among running backs with 18.4 rush attempts. Javonte Williams has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (81.0) this season than he did last season (31.0).

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Attempts Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
31.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
32.53
Best Odds

Javonte Williams Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Javonte Williams
J. Williams
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.3
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Javonte Williams comes in as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging an impressive 2.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

Javonte Williams logo

Javonte Williams

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.3
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.3

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. Javonte Williams comes in as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging an impressive 2.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 86th percentile.

All Matchup props

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Made Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
T.J. Hockenson
T. Hockenson
tight end TE • Minnesota
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.33
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With a fantastic 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson ranks among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

T.J. Hockenson logo

T.J. Hockenson

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.33
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.33

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. With a fantastic 3.3 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, T.J. Hockenson ranks among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

All Matchup props

George Pickens Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
George Pickens
G. Pickens
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
5.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.68
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. George Pickens's receiving talent has improved this year, compiling 6.0 adjusted catches vs just 4.2 last year.

George Pickens logo

George Pickens

Prop: 5.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 5.68
Prop:
5.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
5.68

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. George Pickens's receiving talent has improved this year, compiling 6.0 adjusted catches vs just 4.2 last year.

All Matchup props

Jaylen Warren Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Jaylen Warren
J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.49
Best Odds

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week. The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a mere 50.8 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football. The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

Jaylen Warren logo

Jaylen Warren

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.49
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.49

A rushing game script is implied by the Steelers being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by our trusted projection set to have only 125.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week. The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a mere 50.8 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football. The Miami Dolphins safeties profile as the 7th-best collection of safeties in the league this year in defending receivers.

All Matchup props

DK Metcalf Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
DK Metcalf
D. Metcalf
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.53
Best Odds

With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (92nd percentile) this year, DK Metcalf rates among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league. The predictive model expects DK Metcalf to earn 8.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. With an exceptional 3.8 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, DK Metcalf rates as one of the best pass-catching WRs in football. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (66.6%).

DK Metcalf logo

DK Metcalf

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.53
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.53

With an impressive 93.0% Route Participation Rate (92nd percentile) this year, DK Metcalf rates among the wideouts with the highest volume in the league. The predictive model expects DK Metcalf to earn 8.1 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers. The Steelers offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board. With an exceptional 3.8 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, DK Metcalf rates as one of the best pass-catching WRs in football. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (66.6%).

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Darren Waller Receptions Made Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Darren Waller
D. Waller
tight end TE • Miami
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.71
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Darren Waller's 31.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 83rd percentile for TEs. This year, the feeble Steelers pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-largest rate in football. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the league.

Darren Waller logo

Darren Waller

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.71
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.71

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. Darren Waller's 31.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 83rd percentile for TEs. This year, the feeble Steelers pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 3rd-largest rate in football. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 7th-worst in the league.

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Dak Prescott Passing Attempts Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Dak Prescott
D. Prescott
quarterback QB • Dallas
Prop
34.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
34.74
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this week's game, Dak Prescott is expected by our trusted projection set to average the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.5.

Dak Prescott logo

Dak Prescott

Prop: 34.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 34.74
Prop:
34.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
34.74

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this week's game, Dak Prescott is expected by our trusted projection set to average the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.5.

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De'Von Achane Receptions Made Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
De'Von Achane
D. Achane
running back RB • Miami
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.09
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. De'Von Achane's 74.2% Route Participation% this year signifies a meaningful progression in his passing game usage over last year's 61.2% figure. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs. De'Von Achane grades out as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging an excellent 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

De'Von Achane logo

De'Von Achane

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.09
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.09

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. De'Von Achane's 74.2% Route Participation% this year signifies a meaningful progression in his passing game usage over last year's 61.2% figure. The leading projections forecast De'Von Achane to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs. De'Von Achane grades out as one of the best pass-game running backs this year, averaging an excellent 3.9 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.

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Jaylen Waddle Receptions Made Props • Miami

Miami MIA @ Pittsburgh PIT
Jaylen Waddle
J. Waddle
wide receiver WR • Miami
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.82
Best Odds

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. In this game, Jaylen Waddle is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets. Jaylen Waddle's 65.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 43.8. Jaylen Waddle checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 4.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.

Jaylen Waddle logo

Jaylen Waddle

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.82
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.82

A passing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -3-point underdog in this game. Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in football. In this game, Jaylen Waddle is expected by the predictive model to slot into the 93rd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets. Jaylen Waddle's 65.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 43.8. Jaylen Waddle checks in as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 4.1 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.

All Matchup props

Dak Prescott Passing Touchdowns Props • Dallas

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Dak Prescott
D. Prescott
quarterback QB • Dallas
Prop
1.5
Passing Touchdowns
Projection
1.96
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.7% red zone pass rate. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. Dak Prescott's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant growth in his throwing precision over last year's 65.0% rate.

Dak Prescott logo

Dak Prescott

Prop: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection: 1.96
Prop:
1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection:
1.96

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.5% of their downs: the 9th-greatest frequency among all teams this week. The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 59.7% red zone pass rate. The predictive model expects the Cowboys to run the 10th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game. Dak Prescott's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a significant growth in his throwing precision over last year's 65.0% rate.

All Matchup props

Aaron Jones Sr. Receptions Made Props • Minnesota

Minnesota MIN @ Dallas DAL
Aaron Jones Sr.
A. Jones Sr.
running back RB • Minnesota
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.58
Best Odds

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 91st percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.

Aaron Jones Sr. logo

Aaron Jones Sr.

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 2.58
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
2.58

A throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -5.5-point underdog in this game. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Vikings to pass on 60.8% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer. The Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year. In this week's contest, Aaron Jones is forecasted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 91st percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

All NFL Player Props

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December 14

Minnesota MINat Dallas DAL 20:20 ET

December 15

Miami MIAat Pittsburgh PIT 20:15 ET
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