Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (150 per game) vs. the Bills defense this year. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the league. in the league.
The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year. The projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 11.6 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 46.6% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 130.5 total plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. This year, the daunting Ravens run defense has yielded a meager 4.88 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 24th-lowest rate in football.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year. The model projects Brock Wright to total 4.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.
The model projects Tony Pollard to earn 14.5 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs. Out of all running backs, Tony Pollard ranks in the 96th percentile for carries this year, making up 66.7% of the workload in his team's ground game.
At a -6-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The model projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Cleveland Browns have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 55.0 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 7th-most adjusted yards in football (254.0 per game) against the 49ers defense this year.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects the Lions to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. In this contest, Jared Goff is forecasted by the projection model to total the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.8. The Green Bay Packers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (37.7 per game) this year.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 127.3 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest among all games this week.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the predictive model to call only 63.2 total plays in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week. This year, the fierce Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up a puny 63.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the smallest rate in the NFL. This year, the strong Eagles defense has yielded the 6th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a feeble 7.1 yards.
This week's line indicates a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 4.5 points. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
At a -7-point disadvantage, the Bengals are huge underdogs this week, suggesting much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 67.3% of their downs: the greatest clip on the slate this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to have 130.5 total plays called: the 4th-highest number among all games this week. Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 41.0 passes in this contest, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 4th-most in football.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. In this contest, Dak Prescott is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 4th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 37.7. Dak Prescott grades out as one of the best QBs in the NFL this year, averaging an outstanding 261.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -9.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Patriots are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. The projections expect the New England Patriots as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.0% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The Giants defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 5.73 adjusted yards-per-carry. The Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 75th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets. Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 9.8% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile when it comes to RBs. With an impressive 18.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (85th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the best running backs in the pass game in the NFL.
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Jaguars are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 9th-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jaguars this year (a monstrous 55.9 per game on average). The leading projections forecast Trevor Lawrence to accumulate 4.8 carries this week, on average: the 10th-most among all quarterbacks. This year, the stout Titans run defense has allowed a paltry 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 29th-best rate in the league.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -9.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Ravens are a big 7-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script. The predictive model expects the Ravens as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. In this week's contest, Lamar Jackson is expected by our trusted projection set to garner the 3rd-most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 6.8. Opposing teams have rushed for the most adjusted yards in the league (166 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 10.5 points. The model projects the Seattle Seahawks as the most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.9% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seahawks are projected by the predictive model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week. Sam Darnold's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 6.90 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 5.20 figure last year.
The Colts have been the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 63.4% pass rate. The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to run the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. Daniel Jones grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 230.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 135.1 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 10th-best in football this year. When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's unit has been lousy this year, ranking as the 9th-worst in the league.
The Panthers are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects Bryce Young to throw 35.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-most out of all QBs. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL. The Carolina O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 10th-most adjusted yards in the league (244.0 per game) against the Rams defense this year.
This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Eagles, who are heavily favored by 7 points. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Eagles to run on 49.8% of their plays: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week. Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the predictive model to run 65.3 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Jalen Hurts to total 9.1 carries in this contest, on average: the most among all quarterbacks. The Chicago Bears defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.19 adjusted yards-per-carry.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Patriots are a massive 7.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week. The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.22 seconds per play, the model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in football (in a neutral context) at the present time.
Right now, the 4th-least pass-focused team in the league (56.9% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Giants. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week. The predictive model expects Jaxson Dart to attempt 31.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 6th-fewest out of all QBs. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's collection of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. DK Metcalf has run a route on 94.1% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among wideouts. In this week's game, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 6th-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Green Bay Packers to pass on 60.9% of their chances: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 130.5 total plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. In this week's contest, Jordan Love is predicted by our trusted projection set to total the 6th-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 36.9. Jordan Love has been one of the most accurate QBs in the NFL this year with an exceptional 68.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
The projections expect the Giants to be the 4th-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.1% run rate. The Giants have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 55.0 plays per game. In this week's contest, Jaxson Dart is projected by the projections to earn the 4th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 6.7.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -9.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 47.1 plays per game. Derrick Henry's 78.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season shows a substantial reduction in his rushing talent over last season's 118.0 mark. Derrick Henry's 5.2 adjusted yards per carry this season reflects an impressive diminishment in his rushing skills over last season's 6.2 rate.
A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 134.8 total plays called: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week. The 2nd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (a colossal 58.1 per game on average).
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seahawks are projected by the predictive model to call 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week. Kenneth Walker III's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 88.7% to 93.3%. Kenneth Walker III's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 8.16 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.07 figure last season. The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 7th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Travis Kelce has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this season (19.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (24.6%). After accumulating 59.0 air yards per game last year, Travis Kelce has regressed heavily this year, currently pacing 39.0 per game. Travis Kelce's talent in generating extra yardage have declined this year, accumulating a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.53 mark last year.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are predicted by the predictive model to run 65.3 offensive plays in this game: the 10th-highest number on the slate this week. In this week's contest, A.J. Brown is expected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 89th percentile among wideouts with 8.1 targets. The Bears defense has given up the 10th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (159.0) to WRs this year. The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency against wideouts this year, allowing 9.80 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in the league. The Chicago cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in football this year in pass coverage.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to garner 7.6 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs. With a remarkable 20.5% Target% (77th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching an outstanding 78.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among WRs.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.5 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Zay Flowers to notch 8.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to WRs. With a top-tier 28.7% Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Zay Flowers has been among the wide receivers with the biggest workloads in the league. Zay Flowers profiles as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 60.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile. The Bengals pass defense has surrendered the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) versus wide receivers this year (67.9%).
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The projections expect the Steelers as the 10th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The Bills linebackers project as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
Dak Prescott's 13.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season reflects a meaningful progression in his rushing ability over last season's 6.0 mark. Dak Prescott's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 5.47 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 4.48 figure last year.
The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. The Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year. Our trusted projections expect Rashee Rice to total 9.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With a sizeable 25.7% Target% (91st percentile) this year, Rashee Rice rates as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
In this week's contest, De'Von Achane is predicted by the projections to find himself in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.4 targets. This year, the anemic New Orleans Saints pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 89.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 2nd-worst rate in the league.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Texans, who are -4.5-point underdogs. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 62.2% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. As far as a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.22 seconds per play, the model projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-fastest in football (in a neutral context) at the present time. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide. Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 64.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. The projections expect Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.3 passes in this game, on balance: the 2nd-most out of all QBs. The Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (37.4 per game) this year. Patrick Mahomes has been one of the leading passers in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 274.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 8th-best in football this year. The New York Giants safeties profile as the 8th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
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