NFL Player Props and Best Projections

A running game script is implied by the Rams being a 3-point favorite in this game. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are expected by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week. While Matthew Stafford has accounted for 3.1% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of Los Angeles's ground game in this contest at 8.3%.

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 9th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.57 seconds per play. The leading projections forecast Tony Pollard to notch 13.9 carries in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. The Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board. The Atlanta cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

At a -13-point disadvantage, the Jets are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. This year, the anemic Patriots defense has conceded a staggering 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-biggest rate in football. This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has allowed the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing teams: a staggering 8.15 yards.

The model projects the Seahawks to be the 5th-most run-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 42.4% run rate. The leading projections forecast Kenneth Walker III to accrue 13.5 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among RBs. Kenneth Walker III has averaged 55.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (82nd percentile). Kenneth Walker III's ground effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 4.55 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.59 rate last season.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Minnesota Vikings. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. The Minnesota Vikings offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board. This year, the weak Chicago Bears defense has surrendered a colossal 270.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 4th-most in the league.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has been gouged for the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.8%) versus WRs this year (69.8%).

With a 13-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Patriots to pass on 51.2% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip among all teams this week. At the moment, the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Patriots. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Jets, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 31.6 per game) this year. Opposing offenses have passed for the 10th-fewest yards in the league (just 213.0 adjusted yards per game) against the New York Jets defense this year.

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 134.8 total plays run: the most on the slate this week. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.3%) vs. wideouts this year (67.3%).

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to run on 44.2% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency on the slate this week. This year, the anemic Atlanta Falcons run defense has been torched for a colossal 145.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 5th-worst in the NFL. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Atlanta's unit has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

The San Francisco 49ers will be forced to start backup quarterback Mac Jones this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The 6th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the 49ers this year (a colossal 59.9 per game on average). The Arizona Cardinals defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (36.2 per game) this year. Mac Jones's 284.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season represents a material boost in his passing prowess over last season's 166.0 mark.

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 134.8 total plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average).

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to pass on 59.4% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week. The Jaguars have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.3 plays per game.

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 3rd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Jalen Hurts to total 9.0 carries in this week's game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. While Jalen Hurts has received 23.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Philadelphia's ground game in this week's contest at 29.9%.

The Commanders will be starting backup QB Marcus Mariota in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Deebo Samuel Sr. to garner 8.6 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been much more involved in his offense's passing game this year (27.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.6%). Deebo Samuel Sr.'s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 63.6% to 79.2%.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 67.5 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The predictive model expects Jonnu Smith to accumulate 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs. The Steelers O-line profiles as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board. This year, the porous Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded a massive 86.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the worst in football. This year, the porous Bengals defense has surrendered the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing TEs: a monstrous 9.48 yards.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 59.4% of their downs: the 7th-greatest rate among all teams this week. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Cowboys this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average). The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop. This week, Jake Ferguson is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 98th percentile among TEs with 7.6 targets. After totaling 26.0 air yards per game last season, Jake Ferguson has undergone big improvement this season, currently boasting 35.0 per game.

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 134.8 total plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average).

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan. The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off. The Panthers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board. The Atlanta cornerbacks profile as the 6th-worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

With a 13-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan. Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Patriots to run on 48.8% of their chances: the 2nd-highest rate on the slate this week. This year, the poor Jets run defense has allowed a whopping 139.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst in football.

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-focused team in the league (62.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Minnesota Vikings. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency. With a high 96.8% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson ranks among the wideouts with the highest volume in football. This year, the weak Bears defense has conceded a monstrous 167.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-worst in the NFL.

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.55 seconds per play. Tyjae Spears has received 31.7% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 75th percentile among RBs. Tyjae Spears's 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this year reflects an impressive progression in his rushing prowess over last year's 3.6 mark. Tyjae Spears comes in as one of the best running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging an exceptional 3.27 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 75th percentile.

At a -13-point disadvantage, the Jets are massive underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. This year, the porous New England Patriots defense has yielded the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a whopping 9.03 yards.

The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.

This week's spread indicates an extreme passing game script for the Browns, who are big -7.5-point underdogs. The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics. The Cleveland Browns have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 61.3 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in football. This year, the poor Ravens defense has surrendered a colossal 38.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing running backs: the 8th-worst in football.

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may drop. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year. Kenneth Walker III's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 88.6% to 91.7%.

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett. The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals as the 4th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 135.7 total plays run: the most on the slate this week. The 4th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Cardinals this year (a whopping 60.7 per game on average). The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.3%) vs. wideouts this year (67.3%).

A passing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -3-point underdog this week. The predictive model expects the Bears to call the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics. The Bears have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 59.7 plays per game. The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Raiders, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 5th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, allowing opposing offenses to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year. This year, the feeble Dallas Cowboys defense has been torched for a whopping 46.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the most in football.

The model projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 9th-most run-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.0% run rate. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 10th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.55 seconds per play.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 132.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number out of all the games this week. In this week's contest, Chase Brown is predicted by the model to position himself in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.8 carries. Chase Brown has earned 67.9% of his offense's run game usage this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs.

The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script. The model projects the Buccaneers to be the 7th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. With an extraordinary 48.5% Route Participation% (80th percentile) this year, Rachaad White ranks among the pass-catching running backs with the most usage in football. The projections expect Rachaad White to notch 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 90th percentile among running backs. In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Buccaneers profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Rams to pass on 62.4% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week. Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Rams are expected by the predictive model to call 66.3 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (40.4 per game) this year. With an outstanding record of 254.0 adjusted passing yards per game (92nd percentile), Matthew Stafford rates as one of the leading passers in the league this year.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 7th-best in football this year. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, New York's group of safeties has been very bad this year, grading out as the 9th-worst in football.

This week's line implies a passing game script for the Broncos, who are -3.5-point underdogs. The projections expect the Broncos as the 6th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 59.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Broncos O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. This year, the weak Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded a colossal 87.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 6th-worst rate in football.