NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.1% red zone pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.3.

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.. With a remarkable 67.4% Adjusted Completion% (77th percentile) since the start of last season, Geno Smith places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.. The running touchdown field reads "0" on the back of Geno Smith's trading card since the start of last season.. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest level in football against the Packers defense since the start of last season (72.3% Adjusted Completion%).. The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the 3rd-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

With a 13-point advantage, the 49ers are a heavy favorite this week, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 4th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. The 10th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a colossal 58.3 per game on average).. Brock Purdy's rushing efficiency (6.20 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among quarterbacks).. Since the start of last season, the anemic Dolphins run defense has surrendered a monstrous 141.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

At the moment, the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Tennessee Titans.. In this week's contest, Tony Pollard is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 87th percentile among running backs with 15.8 rush attempts.. Tony Pollard has been given 64.9% of his team's run game usage since the start of last season, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs.. Tony Pollard has grinded out 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football when it comes to RBs (83rd percentile).. Tony Pollard ranks as one of the leading running backs in the league at grinding out extra rushing yardage, averaging an excellent 3.21 yards-after-contact last year while checking in at the 75th percentile.

The Baltimore Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 52.2 plays per game.. The New Orleans Saints defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing run games last year, surrendering just 4.10 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. Our trusted projections expect Aaron Rodgers to be a more important option in his team's ground game this week (10.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.7% in games he has played).. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, New England's collection of DTs has been terrible since the start of last season, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. C.J. Stroud's running efficiency (7.35 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL since the start of last season (100th percentile among QBs).. The Cincinnati Bengals defense owns the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, surrendering 5.27 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Cincinnati's unit has been exceptional last year, grading out as the 7th-best in football.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.5% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. This week, Joe Burrow is projected by the projections to wind up with the most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.5. . With a fantastic rate of 202.0 adjusted passing yards per game (75th percentile), Joe Burrow rates among the best QBs in the league since the start of last season.. The Houston cornerbacks grade out as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 10th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by the projections to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 38.3. . Since the start of last season, the weak Patriots defense has conceded a monstrous 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 6th-highest rate in the NFL.

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 0.0% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. In this week's contest, Josh Downs is anticipated by the projection model to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 7.3 targets.. The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. Josh Downs ranks as one of the worst wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while grading out in the 1st percentile.

The Atlanta Falcons may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling out backup quarterback Cooper Rush.. The leading projections forecast the Atlanta Falcons to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.. The predictive model expects Drake London to garner 9.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.. With an outstanding 63.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (95th percentile) since the start of last season, Drake London rates among the top pass-catching WRs in the league.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. With a remarkable 52.4% Route Participation% (79th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich stands among the TEs with the most usage in football.. In this contest, Greg Dulcich is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets.. Greg Dulcich ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching a fantastic 83.5% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.3% run rate.. Geno Smith is positioned as one of the leading quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging a fantastic 2.42 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 90th percentile.

An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Titans being a giant -7-point underdog in this game.. The predictive model expects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 59.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 130.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.. Last year, the feeble Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing wide receivers: a colossal 0.00 YAC.. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's CB corps has been easily exploitable last year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 47.3% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.. In racking up a massive 4.0 rush attempts per game since the start of last season, Patrick Mahomes rates among the top QBs in football (83rd percentile) in regards to rushing utilization.. Patrick Mahomes has grinded out 23.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among QBs (83rd percentile).. The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.. The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a colossal 59.5 per game on average).

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Bengals, who are -3-point underdogs.. Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.8% of their plays: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 129.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.. The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.. With an impressive 96.5% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) last year, Ja'Marr Chase ranks among the WRs with the most usage in football.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel last year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (37.5 per game) last year.. The Denver Broncos O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.. Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to run the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) since the start of last season.. The projections expect Evan Engram to accrue 5.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.2% red zone pass rate.. The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a colossal 59.5 per game on average).. The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a terrific ratio of 1.50 per game (78th percentile), Justin Herbert rates among the top touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season.

The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (1-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.. Matthew Stafford has been one of the best touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 2.19 per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.. Matthew Stafford has rushed for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the lowest figures in the NFL when it comes to quarterbacks (2nd percentile).. The New York Giants cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

A passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -4-point underdog in this week's game.. The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals as the 3rd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals since the start of last season (a staggering 60.0 per game on average).. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (36.1 per game) since the start of last season.. Michael Wilson rates as one of the leading pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 51.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.

The Steelers are a 5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.. The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 25.86 seconds per snap.. DK Metcalf has run a route on 92.5% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.. The New England Patriots pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (67.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (67.4%).

At the moment, the 3rd-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Tennessee Titans.

The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 61.5% pass rate.. The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.12 seconds per snap.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.. Jake Ferguson has run a route on 73.6% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to tight ends.. Since the start of last season, the deficient Commanders defense has surrendered a massive 67.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in the league.

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 5th-most run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.9% run rate.. Our trusted projections expect De'Von Achane to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has received 63.2% of his team's rushing play calls since the start of last season, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.. De'Von Achane has grinded out 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (94th percentile).. With an impressive tally of 5.13 adjusted yards per carry (89th percentile), De'Von Achane stands among the best pure rushers in the NFL since the start of last season.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football since the start of last season with a fantastic 72.1% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.. Malik Willis has been one of the best per-play quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 10.36 adjusted yards-per-target while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Broncos to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.. The Broncos have run the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 58.7 plays per game.. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel last year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in the NFL (37.5 per game) last year.. J.K. Dobbins has been on the field for 47.4% of his team's snaps last year, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to running backs.

The predictive model expects the Texans to be the 7th-most pass-focused team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.9% pass rate.. With regard to a defense's influence on tempo, at 28.05 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-quickest in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is predicted by the predictive model to have the 9th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.3. . Opposing QBs have passed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in football (243.0 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 130.5 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number among all games this week.. The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier weather in this week's game.. The Chicago Bears defense has had the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 5.04 adjusted yards-per-carry.. When it comes to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Chicago's unit has been fantastic last year, grading out as the 6th-best in the NFL.

With a 5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.1 total plays run: the most on the slate this week.. In this contest, Josh Allen is predicted by the projections to garner the 2nd-most carries among all quarterbacks with 8.1. . The model projects Josh Allen to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack in this week's game (27.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (20.0% in games he has played).. With a stellar record of 38.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (100th percentile), Josh Allen has been as one of the leading running QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.

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With a 4-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal game plan.. The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 27.12 seconds per snap.. The opposing side have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in the league (138 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.. The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

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At the moment, the 7th-most run-oriented team in the league (41.1% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the New York Giants.. The 6th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the Giants since the start of last season (a staggering 59.7 per game on average).. In this week's game, Jaxson Dart is forecasted by the predictive model to earn the 4th-most carries among all QBs with 6.8. . While Jaxson Dart has garnered 19.9% of his offense's rush attempts in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be a more important option in New York's ground game in this week's contest at 25.7%.. With a remarkable record of 31.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (98th percentile), Jaxson Dart places among the best rushing QBs in the NFL since the start of last season.

At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are big underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their typical game plan.

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