This year, the formidable Bills run defense has conceded a meager 5.40 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 31st-best rate in football. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to run on 47.4% of their downs: the 5th-highest clip on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game's spread implies an extreme rushing game script for the Rams, who are a heavy favorite by 10 points. The model projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per play. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Carolina's LB corps has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in football. in football.
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. The Bills linebackers project as the 9th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
With a fantastic record of 2.66 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith has been as one of the leading running QBs in football this year. The Chargers defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering 4.83 adjusted yards-per-carry.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year. Justin Jefferson has run a route on 97.4% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
The model projects Tony Pollard to earn 14.7 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among running backs. Out of all running backs, Tony Pollard ranks in the 94th percentile for carries this year, making up 64.9% of the workload in his team's ground game.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average). The Tennessee Titans pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.3%) versus wideouts this year (73.3%). The Tennessee Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, allowing 9.91 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's unit has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in the league.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Saints defense this year (73.7% Adjusted Completion%). When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 10th-worst in the NFL.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year. The Minnesota O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cleveland Browns to run on 46.6% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being projected in this game) usually cause decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume. The San Francisco defensive tackles profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the model to run only 64.1 plays on offense in this game: the 11th-fewest among all teams this week. As it relates to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest rate in football vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (68.6% Adjusted Completion%). The Buccaneers safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. In this contest, Deebo Samuel Sr. is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 7.9 targets. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this year (27.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.6%).
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
Right now, the 2nd-most run-focused offense in the league (43.4% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New Orleans Saints. The predictive model expects the New Orleans Saints offense to be the fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 25.62 seconds per play. This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins run defense has surrendered a staggering 145.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-most in the NFL.
The 49ers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script. The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.4% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 11.5 points. The model projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.5% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Sam Darnold's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 6.90 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 5.20 figure last year. This year, the deficient Vikings run defense has allowed a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 8th-most in the league.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -9.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.4% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 8th-most adjusted yards in football (248.0 per game) against the 49ers defense this year. The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
This week's line indicates a running game script for the Colts, who are favored by 3.5 points. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Panthers are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The predictive model expects Bryce Young to throw 35.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-most out of all QBs. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -9.5-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.4% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL. This year, the porous San Francisco 49ers defense has given up a massive 43.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-worst in the league. The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (86.8%) versus running backs this year (86.8%).
The projections expect the Colts to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. The predictive model expects Michael Pittman to earn 8.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Michael Pittman has been a key part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 23.4% this year, which places him in the 87th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The Panthers are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. The Los Angeles Rams defense has been torched for the 9th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (155.0) versus wideouts this year.
The Patriots are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. The projections expect the New England Patriots as the 7th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The Giants defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 6.08 adjusted yards-per-carry. The Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.3 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. The Commanders defense has been gouged for the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) to RBs this year. This year, the poor Washington Commanders defense has given up the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a massive 8.37 yards.
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 79th percentile among running backs with 3.0 targets. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. With an impressive 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the best running backs in the pass game in the NFL. Jaylen Warren's 96.2% Adjusted Catch% this season signifies a substantial improvement in his receiving proficiency over last season's 89.6% mark.
At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the league (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Rams. The model projects the Los Angeles Rams offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.57 seconds per play. The model projects Colby Parkinson to be much more involved in his offense's air attack this week (12.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played). Colby Parkinson's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.2% to 91.9%. The Carolina Panthers defense has conceded the 3rd-most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (67.0) to TEs this year.
The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Dolphins, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.0 per game) this year. Juwan Johnson's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 76.7% to 72.9%. Juwan Johnson's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year illustrates a remarkable reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year's 3.9% figure.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL. With a high 91.4% Route Participation% (87th percentile) this year, Jerry Jeudy ranks among the wideouts with the most usage in football. In this week's game, Jerry Jeudy is predicted by the projections to land in the 82nd percentile among wideouts with 7.0 targets.
With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan. The projections expect the Bills to call the 11th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 32.7 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 11th-fewest out of all QBs. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 4th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline. The leading projections forecast Daniel Jones to attempt 36.2 passes this week, on balance: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks. Daniel Jones grades out as one of the best quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 228.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 75th percentile.
The Jaguars are a 6-point favorite this week, likely creating a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Jaguars as the 9th-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Jaguars this year (a monstrous 60.7 per game on average). After accounting for 10.3% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Trevor Lawrence has been more involved in the run game this season, currently accounting for 15.4%. This year, the stout Titans run defense has allowed a paltry 5.27 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 29th-best rate in the league.
This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 9.5 points. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to total 5.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the 9th-most among all QBs. After making up 11.4% of his team's rushing play calls last year, Justin Herbert has been called on more in the ground game this year, now taking on 18.0%. Justin Herbert has run for substantially more yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer. Kenneth Walker III's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 8.24 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.07 figure last season. The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 6th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.5 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Atlanta's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.
This game's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Buccaneers, who are favored by 3 points. The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 4.95 adjusted yards-per-carry.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Texans, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Houston Texans to pass on 61.9% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest frequency among all teams this week. The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Houston Texans have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.5 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 4th-most in football.
The Steelers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. DK Metcalf has run a route on 93.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts. In this week's game, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.6 targets. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Panthers are an enormous 10-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. In this week's game, Rico Dowdle is projected by the projections to place in the 93rd percentile among running backs with 4.6 targets. Rico Dowdle has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 9.5% this year, which puts him in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs. Rico Dowdle comes in as one of the best running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a remarkable 18.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their standard approach. The model projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.2 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Houston Texans have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.5 plays per game. C.J. Stroud has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (14.0). C.J. Stroud's ground efficiency has been refined this season, averaging 6.83 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 5.89 rate last season. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Indianapolis's group of DTs has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in football. in football.
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.3 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. This year, the porous Commanders pass defense has surrendered a staggering 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 3rd-largest rate in the league. This year, the anemic Washington Commanders defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a massive 9.79 yards.
At the moment, the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (43.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Commanders. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Chris Rodriguez Jr. to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack in this contest (39.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.8% in games he has played). Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s ground effectiveness (4.86 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile when it comes to running backs). Chris Rodriguez grades out as one of the top running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.48 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
The largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a massive 62.3 per game on average). After accounting for 5.6% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Jacoby Brissett has had a larger role in the ground game this season, currently comprising 12.2%. Jacoby Brissett is positioned as one of the best quarterbacks in the league at generating extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 2.57 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 87th percentile. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's DE corps has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
The 49ers are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a running game script. The leading projections forecast the 49ers to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 52.6% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league. After totaling 56.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has seen a big downtick this season, now sitting at 38.0 per game.
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