The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) typically mean lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and higher rush volume. This year, the formidable Bills run defense has conceded a meager 5.40 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 31st-best rate in football. As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Buffalo's unit has been lousy this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 11.5 points. The model projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Sam Darnold's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, notching 6.90 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a mere 5.20 figure last year. This year, the deficient Vikings run defense has allowed a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 8th-most in the league.
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. The Bills linebackers project as the 9th-worst LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. This week, Jaylen Warren is forecasted by the predictive model to finish in the 77th percentile among running backs with 2.9 targets. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. With an impressive 17.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (79th percentile) this year, Jaylen Warren places as one of the best running backs in the pass game in the NFL.
With a fantastic record of 2.66 yards-after-contact (92nd percentile), Geno Smith has been as one of the leading running QBs in football this year. The Chargers defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, surrendering 4.83 adjusted yards-per-carry.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -10-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.5% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year. The Minnesota O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year. Justin Jefferson has run a route on 97.4% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. In this contest, Deebo Samuel Sr. is predicted by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 88th percentile among wideouts with 7.9 targets. Deebo Samuel Sr. has been a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this year (27.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.6%).
The Patriots are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. The projections expect the New England Patriots as the 8th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The Giants defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 6.08 adjusted yards-per-carry. The Giants safeties rank as the 32nd-worst unit in football this year in regard to run defense.
This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Chargers, who are a heavy favorite by 10 points. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). The predictive model expects Justin Herbert to total 5.2 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the 8th-most among all QBs. After making up 11.4% of his team's rushing play calls last year, Justin Herbert has been called on more in the ground game this year, now taking on 18.0%. Justin Herbert has run for substantially more yards per game (31.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -10-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.5% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer. Kenneth Walker III's receiving effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 8.24 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 6.07 figure last season. The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. DK Metcalf has run a route on 93.2% of his team's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts. In this week's game, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 84th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.3 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. The Commanders defense has been gouged for the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (38.0) to RBs this year. This year, the poor Washington Commanders defense has given up the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing RBs: a massive 8.37 yards.
At the moment, the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (43.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Commanders. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Chris Rodriguez Jr. to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack in this contest (39.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (22.8% in games he has played). Chris Rodriguez Jr.'s ground effectiveness (4.86 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (79th percentile when it comes to running backs). Chris Rodriguez grades out as one of the top running backs in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.48 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan. Our trusted projections expect the Bills offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.97 seconds per snap. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) generally prompt worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume. As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in football.
The Patriots are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 53.4% of their chances: the 7th-lowest rate among all teams this week. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are forecasted by the model to call only 62.9 offensive plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Giants defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.5 per game) this year. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 7th-best in football this year. This year, the weak Giants pass defense has given up a massive 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 8th-highest rate in the NFL. The New York Giants safeties profile as the 6th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year. In this contest, Aaron Jones is projected by the predictive model to rank in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.3 targets.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play. In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
A rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.3 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The opposing side have run for the 6th-most adjusted yards in football (137 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year.
The Giants are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The Giants have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game. The New York offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board. This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has been gouged for a massive 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 8th-worst in the NFL. The Patriots pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.9%) to TEs this year (79.9%).
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. The Las Vegas Raiders safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
Right now, the 3rd-least pass-focused team in the league (56.8% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Giants. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week. The predictive model expects Jaxson Dart to attempt 31.8 passes in this game, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs. Jaxson Dart is positioned as one of the weakest QBs in football this year, averaging 158.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile. When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, New England's collection of LBs has been great this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -10-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.5% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year. In this contest, T.J. Hockenson is projected by the model to place in the 75th percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.
With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan. Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being forecasted in this game) generally prompt worse passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume. This week, James Cook is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 98th percentile among RBs with 20.3 rush attempts. James Cook has been a more important option in his team's ground game this season (67.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (50.9%). James Cook has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (91.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).
At the moment, the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (43.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Commanders. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics. In this week's game, Marcus Mariota is predicted by the model to accrue the 2nd-most carries out of all QBs with 7.1. Our trusted projections expect Marcus Mariota to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack in this week's contest (23.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.2% in games he has played). Marcus Mariota has grinded out 32.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to QBs (92nd percentile).
The projections expect the Giants to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.2% run rate. The Giants have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game. In this week's contest, Jaxson Dart is projected by the projections to earn the 4th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 6.7. Jaxson Dart isn't afraid to run the ball, making up 19.9% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among quarterbacks. With a remarkable total of 36.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (100th percentile), Jaxson Dart rates as one of the leading running quarterbacks in football this year.
Right now, the least run-centric team in the league (35.4% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Los Angeles Chargers. The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 122.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. This year, the porous Las Vegas Raiders run defense has allowed a massive 4.13 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 24th-highest rate in the league.
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.3 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. In this week's game, Evan Engram is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 78th percentile among TEs with 5.0 targets. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. The Commanders pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.9%) vs. TEs this year (80.9%).
Right now, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (63.0% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Denver Broncos. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.3 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board. This year, the porous Commanders pass defense has surrendered a staggering 69.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 3rd-largest rate in the league. This year, the anemic Washington Commanders defense has given up the 3rd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a massive 9.79 yards.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -10-point underdog in this game. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Las Vegas Raiders to pass on 62.5% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate among all teams this week. The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. Justin Herbert checks in as one of the leading QBs in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 236.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile. This year, the weak Las Vegas Raiders defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to the opposing side: a monstrous 7.92 yards.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: most in football. The leading projections forecast Khalil Shakir to garner 7.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 86th percentile among WRs. With a remarkable 21.3% Target% (78th percentile) this year, Khalil Shakir has been as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in football this year. Khalil Shakir grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 48.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Chargers this year (a massive 60.0 per game on average). Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) usually prompt increased passing efficiency, higher touchdown potential, higher air attack volume, and lower rush volume. The Raiders pass defense has been gouged for the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.9%) to wideouts this year (68.9%). This year, the feeble Raiders defense has been gouged for the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a staggering 8.83 yards.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer. The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may suffer. Sam Darnold's throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.2% to 69.8%. With an exceptional 8.81 adjusted yards-per-target (100th percentile) this year, Sam Darnold rates among the best per-play quarterbacks in the league. The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
This week's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 11.5 points. The model projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The model projects Kenneth Walker III to accumulate 17.0 rush attempts in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs. With a terrific tally of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Kenneth Walker III has been among the leading RBs in the league this year. This year, the deficient Vikings run defense has allowed a whopping 132.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 8th-most in the league.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Vikings being a huge -11.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower ground volume. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.4 per game) this year. The Minnesota O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all air attack statistics across the board.
The projections expect the Giants to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.2% run rate. The Giants have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.0 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants defense has been something of pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (35.5 per game) this year. This week, Stefon Diggs is projected by the projections to slot into the 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.5 targets. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 7th-best in football this year. Stefon Diggs profiles as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 56.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 86th percentile. Stefon Diggs's 83.0% Adjusted Catch% this season marks an impressive gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 73.7% figure.
The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.96 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders will be forced to start backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts. A passing game script is suggested by the Commanders being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
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