NFL Player Props and Best Projections

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Matchups
Projections
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

C.J. Stroud Passing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
228.5
Passing Yards
Projection
205.69
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.6. C.J. Stroud has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (179.0) this year than he did last year (205.0). With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 228.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 205.69
Prop:
228.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
205.69

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.6. C.J. Stroud has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (179.0) this year than he did last year (205.0). With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL.

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Woody Marks Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
55.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
69.19
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).

Woody Marks logo

Woody Marks

Prop: 55.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 69.19
Prop:
55.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
69.19

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).

All Matchup props

Nico Collins Receiving Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Nico Collins
N. Collins
wide receiver WR • Houston
Prop
71.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
62.14
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Nico Collins has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this season than he did last season (75.0). Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.5%. Nico Collins's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.18 mark last season.

Nico Collins logo

Nico Collins

Prop: 71.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 62.14
Prop:
71.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
62.14

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Nico Collins has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (62.0) this season than he did last season (75.0). Nico Collins's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.1% to 59.5%. Nico Collins's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, compiling a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.18 mark last season.

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Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
3.99
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 3.99
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
3.99

The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

All Matchup props

Kenneth Gainwell Rushing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Kenneth Gainwell
K. Gainwell
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
25.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
32.33
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. After making up 11.4% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Kenneth Gainwell has had a larger role in the rushing attack this season, now sitting at 28.8%. Kenneth Gainwell's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a significant gain in his running proficiency over last year's 18.0 mark. Kenneth Gainwell's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, notching 4.77 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 3.84 rate last year.

Kenneth Gainwell logo

Kenneth Gainwell

Prop: 25.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 32.33
Prop:
25.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
32.33

The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. After making up 11.4% of his team's rushing play calls last season, Kenneth Gainwell has had a larger role in the rushing attack this season, now sitting at 28.8%. Kenneth Gainwell's 29.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year shows a significant gain in his running proficiency over last year's 18.0 mark. Kenneth Gainwell's rushing effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, notching 4.77 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 3.84 rate last year.

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Woody Marks Receiving Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
9.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
13.93
Best Odds

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) vs. running backs this year (85.6%). The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Woody Marks logo

Woody Marks

Prop: 9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 13.93
Prop:
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
13.93

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) vs. running backs this year (85.6%). The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
12.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
16.86
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 12.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 16.86
Prop:
12.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
16.86

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average).

All Matchup props

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
DK Metcalf
D. Metcalf
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
50.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
56.96
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This week, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the projections to place in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.4 targets. DK Metcalf slots into the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 63.6 figure this year.

DK Metcalf logo

DK Metcalf

Prop: 50.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 56.96
Prop:
50.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
56.96

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This week, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the projections to place in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.4 targets. DK Metcalf slots into the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 63.6 figure this year.

All Matchup props

Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Dalton Schultz
D. Schultz
tight end TE • Houston
Prop
42.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
38.46
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Dalton Schultz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a noteworthy drop-off in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 3.9% rate.

Dalton Schultz logo

Dalton Schultz

Prop: 42.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 38.46
Prop:
42.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
38.46

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Dalton Schultz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a noteworthy drop-off in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 3.9% rate.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Attempts Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
32.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
35.84
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 32.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 35.84
Prop:
32.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
35.84

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs.

All Matchup props

Kenneth Gainwell Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Kenneth Gainwell
K. Gainwell
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
30.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
33.12
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs. Kenneth Gainwell's 16.0% Target Share this season marks an impressive boost in his passing attack utilization over last season's 5.0% mark.

Kenneth Gainwell logo

Kenneth Gainwell

Prop: 30.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 33.12
Prop:
30.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
33.12

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs. Kenneth Gainwell's 16.0% Target Share this season marks an impressive boost in his passing attack utilization over last season's 5.0% mark.

All Matchup props

Woody Marks Score a Touchdown Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.55
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.55
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. This year, the imposing Steelers run defense has surrendered a puny 0.59 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-best rate in the league. The Steelers defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.

Woody Marks logo

Woody Marks

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.55
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.55

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. This year, the imposing Steelers run defense has surrendered a puny 0.59 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-best rate in the league. The Steelers defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
204.5
Passing Yards
Projection
208.59
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 204.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 208.59
Prop:
204.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
208.59

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Passing Completions Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
21.5
Passing Completions
Projection
19.5
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.6. With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 21.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 19.5
Prop:
21.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
19.5

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.6. With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Passing Touchdowns Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
1.5
Passing Touchdowns
Projection
1.14
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.6. With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection: 1.14
Prop:
1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection:
1.14

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, C.J. Stroud is anticipated by our trusted projection set to wind up with the fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 34.6. With a feeble 63.2% Adjusted Completion% (25th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks among the least on-target passers in the NFL. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Touchdowns Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
1.5
Passing Touchdowns
Projection
0.85
Best Odds

The fewest plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (just 53.9 per game on average). Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest level in football against the Texans defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%). The Texans defense has conceded the 7th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.18 per game this year. The Texans cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection: 0.85
Prop:
1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Projection:
0.85

The fewest plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (just 53.9 per game on average). Opposing teams have completed passes at the lowest level in football against the Texans defense this year (64.3% Adjusted Completion%). The Texans defense has conceded the 7th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.18 per game this year. The Texans cornerbacks profile as the 4th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

All Matchup props

Dalton Schultz Receptions Made Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Dalton Schultz
D. Schultz
tight end TE • Houston
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.23
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Dalton Schultz logo

Dalton Schultz

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.23
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.23

A running game script is implied by the Texans being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest. The projections expect the Texans to be the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

All Matchup props

Pat Freiermuth Receiving Yards Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Pat Freiermuth
P. Freiermuth
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
31.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
32.92
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Pat Freiermuth to earn 5.0 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Pat Freiermuth logo

Pat Freiermuth

Prop: 31.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 32.92
Prop:
31.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
32.92

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Pat Freiermuth to earn 5.0 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to tight ends. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Pat Freiermuth Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Pat Freiermuth
P. Freiermuth
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.25
Best Odds

The fewest plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (just 53.9 per game on average). Pat Freiermuth's 55.7% Route% this season conveys a noteworthy decline in his passing attack workload over last season's 75.8% mark. Pat Freiermuth's pass-catching performance declined this year, totaling a measly 2.6 adjusted receptions vs 3.9 last year. Pat Freiermuth's 78.5% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 89.0% figure. The Texans safeties profile as the 9th-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

Pat Freiermuth logo

Pat Freiermuth

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.25
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.25

The fewest plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (just 53.9 per game on average). Pat Freiermuth's 55.7% Route% this season conveys a noteworthy decline in his passing attack workload over last season's 75.8% mark. Pat Freiermuth's pass-catching performance declined this year, totaling a measly 2.6 adjusted receptions vs 3.9 last year. Pat Freiermuth's 78.5% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant regression in his receiving prowess over last season's 89.0% figure. The Texans safeties profile as the 9th-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Passing Attempts Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
32.5
Passing Attempts
Projection
32.53
Best Odds

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 32.5 Passing Attempts
Projection: 32.53
Prop:
32.5 Passing Attempts
Projection:
32.53

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.

All Matchup props

Kenneth Gainwell Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Kenneth Gainwell
K. Gainwell
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.33
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.33
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Kenneth Gainwell has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs. Kenneth Gainwell's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 7.4.

Kenneth Gainwell logo

Kenneth Gainwell

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.33
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.33

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Kenneth Gainwell has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 20.7% this year, which places him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs. Kenneth Gainwell's 23.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 7.4.

All Matchup props

Woody Marks Receptions Made Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.61
Best Odds

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) vs. running backs this year (85.6%). The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Woody Marks logo

Woody Marks

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.61
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.61

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. The Steelers pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.6%) vs. running backs this year (85.6%). The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

All Matchup props

DK Metcalf Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
DK Metcalf
D. Metcalf
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.96
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This week, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the projections to place in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.4 targets. With an excellent 3.5 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, DK Metcalf places among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.

DK Metcalf logo

DK Metcalf

Prop: 3.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.96
Prop:
3.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.96

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This week, DK Metcalf is forecasted by the projections to place in the 93rd percentile among wideouts with 8.4 targets. With an excellent 3.5 adjusted catches per game (81st percentile) this year, DK Metcalf places among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.

All Matchup props

Nico Collins Score a Touchdown Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Nico Collins
N. Collins
wide receiver WR • Houston
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. With an elite 25.7% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Nico Collins places among the wide receivers with the highest volume near the end zone in football. Nico Collins has totaled a staggering 104.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among wideouts.

Nico Collins logo

Nico Collins

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.43
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.43

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. With an elite 25.7% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Nico Collins places among the wide receivers with the highest volume near the end zone in football. Nico Collins has totaled a staggering 104.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among wideouts.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Passing Completions Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
20.5
Passing Completions
Projection
20.55
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs. Aaron Rodgers's 66.9% Adjusted Completion% this year marks an impressive improvement in his throwing precision over last year's 63.8% rate.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 20.5 Passing Completions
Projection: 20.55
Prop:
20.5 Passing Completions
Projection:
20.55

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs. Aaron Rodgers's 66.9% Adjusted Completion% this year marks an impressive improvement in his throwing precision over last year's 63.8% rate.

All Matchup props

DK Metcalf Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
DK Metcalf
D. Metcalf
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.29
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.29
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. DK Metcalf slots into the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 63.6 figure this year. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

DK Metcalf logo

DK Metcalf

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.29
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.29

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. DK Metcalf slots into the 90th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with a staggering 63.6 figure this year. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

All Matchup props

Nico Collins Receptions Made Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Nico Collins
N. Collins
wide receiver WR • Houston
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.61
Best Odds

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. The model projects Nico Collins to earn 8.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs. With an extraordinary 24.8% Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, Nico Collins ranks as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL.

Nico Collins logo

Nico Collins

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.61
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.61

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. The model projects Nico Collins to earn 8.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs. With an extraordinary 24.8% Target Rate (89th percentile) this year, Nico Collins ranks as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Pat Freiermuth
P. Freiermuth
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.18
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.18
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board. The opposing side have run for the 8th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.76 per game) against the Houston Texans defense this year.

Pat Freiermuth logo

Pat Freiermuth

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.18
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.18

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board. The opposing side have run for the 8th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.76 per game) against the Houston Texans defense this year.

All Matchup props

Kenneth Gainwell Receptions Made Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Kenneth Gainwell
K. Gainwell
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.51
Best Odds

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs. Kenneth Gainwell's receiving performance has gotten better this season, totaling 3.9 adjusted receptions vs just 1.0 last season.

Kenneth Gainwell logo

Kenneth Gainwell

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.51
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.51

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Kenneth Gainwell to garner 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs. Kenneth Gainwell's receiving performance has gotten better this season, totaling 3.9 adjusted receptions vs just 1.0 last season.

All Matchup props

C.J. Stroud Score a Touchdown Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
C.J. Stroud
C. Stroud
quarterback QB • Houston
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.08
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.08
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. This year, the weak Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been gouged for a whopping 1.76 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the highest rate in football. This year, the imposing Steelers run defense has surrendered a puny 0.59 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

C.J. Stroud logo

C.J. Stroud

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.08
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.08

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. This year, the weak Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been gouged for a whopping 1.76 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the highest rate in football. This year, the imposing Steelers run defense has surrendered a puny 0.59 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-best rate in the league.

All Matchup props

Dalton Schultz Score a Touchdown Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Dalton Schultz
D. Schultz
tight end TE • Houston
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.23
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.23
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. With an impressive 14.1% Red Zone Target Rate (75th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz stands among the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in football. In regards to air yards, Dalton Schultz ranks in the lofty 90th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a striking 40.0 per game.

Dalton Schultz logo

Dalton Schultz

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.23
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.23

The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Houston Texans this year (a colossal 60.4 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 5th-most in the league. With an impressive 14.1% Red Zone Target Rate (75th percentile) this year, Dalton Schultz stands among the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in football. In regards to air yards, Dalton Schultz ranks in the lofty 90th percentile among TEs this year, totaling a striking 40.0 per game.

All Matchup props

Aaron Rodgers Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh

Houston HOU @ Pittsburgh PIT
Aaron Rodgers
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.01
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.01
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs. Aaron Rodgers has not tried to run the ball himself in the red zone at all this year.

Aaron Rodgers logo

Aaron Rodgers

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.01
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.01

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script. The model projects the Steelers to be the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the most plays run among all games this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on balance: the most among all QBs. Aaron Rodgers has not tried to run the ball himself in the red zone at all this year.

All Matchup props

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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