Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 135.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week. The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average). In this game, Jameis Winston is forecasted by the projection model to total the 9th-most carries out of all QBs with 4.0. While Jameis Winston has garnered 4.8% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Cleveland's rushing attack this week at 15.7%. The Chargers defensive ends profile as the 7th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
At the moment, the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (35.9 per game) this year. The Arizona O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.
The Ravens are a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script. Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to run on 52.2% of their downs: the greatest frequency among all teams this week. Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. This week, Lamar Jackson is forecasted by the model to accrue the most rush attempts out of all QBs with 11.0. Lamar Jackson has run for many more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (53.0).
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. The Bears O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board. This year, the poor Cardinals defense has conceded a monstrous 75.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-biggest rate in football. This year, the porous Cardinals defense has been gouged for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a colossal 8.16 yards.
At the moment, the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (35.9 per game) this year. The Arizona O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all air attack stats across the board.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The model projects Sam Darnold to throw 35.9 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs. Sam Darnold has passed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (234.0) this season than he did last season (33.0). This year, the weak Indianapolis Colts defense has yielded a monstrous 76.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 2nd-largest rate in the NFL.
At a -5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The projections expect the Colts as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 5th-fastest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Colts. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL. Mo Alie-Cox's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 58.1% to 64.5%.
This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 64.7% of their chances: the highest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see 137.9 plays on offense called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.3 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The 7th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a monstrous 59.0 per game on average). The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness. The Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. In this week's contest, Drake London is projected by the projections to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.1 targets. Drake London has put up a massive 77.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Drake London's 74.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season illustrates a significant gain in his receiving prowess over last season's 58.0 figure.
Our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.7% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher rush volume. The model projects Rhamondre Stevenson to accrue 18.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 90th percentile among RBs. After accounting for 51.2% of his team's rush attempts last season, Rhamondre Stevenson has had a larger role in the run game this season, currently making up 62.7%. With an exceptional tally of 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Rhamondre Stevenson stands as one of the best pure rushers in the NFL this year.
Our trusted projections expect the Panthers to be the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The model projects Chuba Hubbard to earn 21.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs. Chuba Hubbard has been a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this season (68.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (52.0%). Chuba Hubbard's 72.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season conveys a remarkable growth in his rushing talent over last season's 53.0 mark. This year, the tough Saints run defense has allowed a puny 5.53 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 31st-smallest rate in the NFL.
This week's line suggests a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -6-point underdogs. The highest number of plays in football have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (a colossal 62.6 per game on average). Opposing QBs have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL. In this contest, Jonnu Smith is anticipated by our trusted projection set to land in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.5 targets. With a remarkable 15.7% Target Rate (84th percentile) this year, Jonnu Smith stands as one of the TEs with the most usage in the league.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run 66.1 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 7th-most in the league. Derrick Henry's pass-catching effectiveness has gotten better this year, compiling 8.08 adjusted yards-per-target compared to just 6.39 mark last year. Derrick Henry has been one of the leading RBs in football at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging an exceptional 9.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 77th percentile.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 92nd percentile among tight ends with 6.5 targets. With a remarkable 23.8% Target% (100th percentile) last year, T.J. Hockenson rates among the tight ends with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The Colts defense has conceded the 7th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (61.0) versus tight ends this year.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by the projection model to run only 62.4 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week. Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being called for in this game) usually cause increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.
Our trusted projections expect the Panthers to be the 5th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. This year, the tough Saints run defense has allowed a puny 5.53 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 31st-smallest rate in the NFL. The New Orleans defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in the league this year with their run defense.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The model projects Kirk Cousins to throw 37.9 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-most among all QBs. The Cowboys pass defense has displayed weak efficiency this year, giving up 9.02 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.15 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 3rd-most in football.
With a 7-point advantage, the Saints are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach. The projections expect the Saints to be the 4th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.3% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the model to call 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week. In tallying a colossal 4.5 carries per game this year, Taysom Hill stands among the top QBs in football (75th percentile) as it relates to ground game workload. This year, the poor Panthers run defense has allowed a whopping 175.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the most in the league.
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. Our trusted projections expect D.J. Moore to garner 8.4 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among WRs. The Bears O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board. The Cardinals pass defense has been gouged for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.5%) versus WRs this year (72.5%).
The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.50 seconds per snap. The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. The projections expect Cole Kmet to accrue 4.7 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 81st percentile among TEs. Cole Kmet has put up a massive 38.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among tight ends. With an exceptional 45.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (89th percentile) this year, Cole Kmet rates as one of the best pass-catching TEs in the league.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.1% pass rate. This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The projections expect Justin Jefferson to total 10.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers. With a terrific 9.9 adjusted yards per target (87th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson has been among the top pass-catching wide receivers in the league. This year, the anemic Colts pass defense has been torched for a whopping 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to run on 39.9% of their downs: the 10th-lowest frequency on the slate this week. The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.1 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Indianapolis defensive tackles profile as the 8th-best group of DTs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Bears safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.
At the moment, the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (35.9 per game) this year. Trey McBride has been less involved as a potential target this year (88.8% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (62.7%). The projections expect Trey McBride to total 8.3 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
With a 7-point advantage, the Saints are a huge favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Saints to pass on 52.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week. In this week's contest, Derek Carr is forecasted by the model to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.4. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league. The Saints offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chargers to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 10th-lowest clip among all teams this week. The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (only 56.1 per game on average). Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.4 per game) this year. When it comes to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Los Angeles Chargers ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year. Justin Herbert has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (202.0) this season than he did last season (248.0).
This week, Alexander Mattison is projected by the model to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs with 16.6 rush attempts. The model projects Alexander Mattison to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game in this week's contest (64.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (48.0% in games he has played). This year, the deficient Bengals run defense has been torched for a monstrous 145.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 5th-worst in the NFL.
This game's line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bengals, who are heavily favored by 7 points. Joe Burrow's 6.00 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year marks a meaningful growth in his running talent over last year's 5.11 figure. The Las Vegas Raiders defense has produced the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, giving up 5.02 adjusted yards-per-carry.
This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Giants, who are -4-point underdogs. The New York Giants have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game. The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the league.
This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 64.7% of their chances: the highest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see 137.9 plays on offense called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.3 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the New Orleans Saints are projected by the model to call 66.1 total plays in this contest: the 6th-most on the slate this week. This week, Alvin Kamara is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 100th percentile among running backs with 7.3 targets. As it relates to air yards, Alvin Kamara grades out in the lofty 80th percentile among RBs this year, averaging a colossal 1.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more notable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards). Alvin Kamara's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 28.9. Alvin Kamara has been one of the leading pass-game RBs this year, averaging an outstanding 33.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.
At the moment, the 8th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Arizona Cardinals. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down. The Bears defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (35.9 per game) this year. James Conner has run a route on 48.2% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs. Our trusted projections expect James Conner to total 3.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs.
With a 4-point advantage, the Commanders are favored in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their standard approach. Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 52.5% of their chances: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the model to have just 127.8 offensive plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 5th-fewest in football. The New York Giants defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.43 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.
At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (64.7% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Chiefs. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have 130.5 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Chiefs profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
At the moment, the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. In regards to air yards, Devon Achane grades out in the lowly 19th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -3.0 per game. This year, the strong Buffalo Bills defense has allowed a feeble 77.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-best rate in football.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 8th-fewest in the NFL. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Seattle Seahawks profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
At the moment, the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (59.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Dolphins. The predictive model expects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics. After accumulating 113.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has seen a big decline this season, now pacing 93.0 per game. Tyreek Hill's 64.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 77.5. Tyreek Hill's 45.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year represents a material decrease in his pass-catching talent over last year's 109.0 rate.
At a -5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The projections expect the Colts as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 5th-fastest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Colts. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL. Joe Flacco profiles as one of the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 283.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.
The New York Giants have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game. In this contest, Daniel Jones is predicted by the projections to total the 4th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 6.6. Daniel Jones isn't afraid to call his own number, accounting for 23.7% of his offense's rush attempts this year, placing him in the 90th percentile among quarterbacks. The Washington Commanders defense owns the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.09 adjusted yards-per-carry. The Washington defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The New York Giants have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.4 plays per game. The Washington Commanders defense owns the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.09 adjusted yards-per-carry. The Washington defensive tackles grade out as the 6th-worst DT corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower run volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the poor Denver Broncos run defense has been torched for a whopping 4.05 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing squads: the 28th-worst rate in the league. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Denver's DT corps has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Seahawks are projected by the projections to call 66.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect Kenneth Walker to earn 17.7 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 87th percentile among running backs. Kenneth Walker has garnered 62.9% of his offense's run game usage this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs. With an excellent rate of 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (76th percentile), Kenneth Walker stands among the top pure runners in the NFL this year. Opposing teams have run for the 7th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (143 per game) versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year.
At a -5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan. The projections expect the Colts as the 2nd-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. At the moment, the 5th-fastest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Colts. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: most in the NFL.
With a 9-point advantage, the Chiefs are heavily favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan. Patrick Mahomes has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (240.0) this season than he did last season (274.0). When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's group of CBs has been very good this year, profiling as the best in the league.
This week's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are massive -9-point underdogs. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to have 130.5 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Rachaad White to earn 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs. Rachaad White has totaled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB Jameis Winston in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. The leading projections forecast the Browns as the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 135.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week. The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average). The leading projections forecast Cedric Tillman to accrue 8.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are -3.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 64.7% of their chances: the highest clip among all teams this week. Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see 137.9 plays on offense called: the highest number out of all the games this week. The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 59.3 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Falcons defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is expected by the model to have 135.8 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week. The 4th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Cleveland Browns this year (a monstrous 60.9 per game on average). After taking on 41.8% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Nick Chubb has had a larger role in the running game this season, currently taking on 62.8%. The Chargers defensive ends profile as the 7th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
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