NFL Player Props and Best Projections

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Matchups
Projections
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Jared Goff Rushing Yards Props • Detroit

Tampa Bay TB @ Detroit DET
Jared Goff
J. Goff
quarterback QB • Detroit
Prop
0.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
4.05
Best Odds

The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script. At the present time, the 4th-most run-centric team in football (41.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Detroit Lions.

Jared Goff

Prop: 0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 4.05
Prop:
0.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
4.05

The Lions are a 6-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script. At the present time, the 4th-most run-centric team in football (41.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Detroit Lions.

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Sterling Shepard Receptions Made Props • Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay TB @ Detroit DET
Sterling Shepard
S. Shepard
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.64
Best Odds
Prop
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection
4.64
Best Odds
Projection Rating

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. In this game, Sterling Shepard is predicted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets. Sterling Shepard's 70.6% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a meaningful boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 64.3% figure.

Sterling Shepard

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.64
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.64

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. In this game, Sterling Shepard is predicted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets. Sterling Shepard's 70.6% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a meaningful boost in his receiving prowess over last year's 64.3% figure.

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Jake Ferguson Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Jake Ferguson
J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
38.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
57.07
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Commanders defense has been torched for a whopping 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 8th-worst in football.

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 57.07
Prop:
38.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
57.07

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Commanders defense has been torched for a whopping 60.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 8th-worst in football.

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Jacoby Brissett Passing Yards Props • Arizona

Green Bay GB @ Arizona ARI
Jacoby Brissett
J. Brissett
quarterback QB • Arizona
Prop
206.5
Passing Yards
Projection
253.07
Best Odds

The Cardinals may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett. A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -6.5-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The 10th-most plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: most in the league.

Jacoby Brissett

Prop: 206.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 253.07
Prop:
206.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
253.07

The Cardinals may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett. A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -6.5-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The 10th-most plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: most in the league.

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J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards Props • Denver

New York NYG @ Denver DEN
J.K. Dobbins
J. Dobbins
running back RB • Denver
Prop
5.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
10.65
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 58.5 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Giants defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. The Denver O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board. The Giants pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.9%) versus running backs this year (85.9%).

J.K. Dobbins

Prop: 5.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 10.65
Prop:
5.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
10.65

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 58.5 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Giants defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. The Denver O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board. The Giants pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.9%) versus running backs this year (85.9%).

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Jalen Hurts Passing Yards Props • Philadelphia

Philadelphia PHI @ Minnesota MIN
Jalen Hurts
J. Hurts
quarterback QB • Philadelphia
Prop
203.5
Passing Yards
Projection
234.46
Best Odds

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.

Jalen Hurts

Prop: 203.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 234.46
Prop:
203.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
234.46

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.

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Jayden Daniels Passing Yards Props • Washington

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Jayden Daniels
J. Daniels
quarterback QB • Washington
Prop
223.5
Passing Yards
Projection
271.76
Best Odds

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. Opposing offenses have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (288.0 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

Jayden Daniels

Prop: 223.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 271.76
Prop:
223.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
271.76

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. Opposing offenses have passed for the most adjusted yards in the league (288.0 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.

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Daniel Jones Rushing Yards Props • Indianapolis

Indianapolis IND @ Los Angeles LAC
Daniel Jones
D. Jones
quarterback QB • Indianapolis
Prop
14.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
26.11
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.4% run rate. In this contest, Daniel Jones is anticipated by the predictive model to garner the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 5.4. While Daniel Jones has been responsible for 13.5% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Indianapolis's run game in this game at 19.8%. The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 4.90 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Daniel Jones

Prop: 14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 26.11
Prop:
14.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
26.11

The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.4% run rate. In this contest, Daniel Jones is anticipated by the predictive model to garner the 7th-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 5.4. While Daniel Jones has been responsible for 13.5% of his offense's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Indianapolis's run game in this game at 19.8%. The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the 8th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, surrendering 4.90 adjusted yards-per-carry.

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Caleb Williams Passing Yards Props • Chicago

New Orleans NO @ Chicago CHI
Caleb Williams
C. Williams
quarterback QB • Chicago
Prop
223.5
Passing Yards
Projection
191.47
Best Odds

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan. The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

Caleb Williams

Prop: 223.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 191.47
Prop:
223.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
191.47

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan. The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.6% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the Saints defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.

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Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Props • Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay TB @ Detroit DET
Sterling Shepard
S. Shepard
wide receiver WR • Tampa Bay
Prop
21.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
58.7
Best Odds
Prop
21.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
58.7
Best Odds
Projection Rating

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. In this game, Sterling Shepard is predicted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets. The Detroit Lions defense has been gouged for the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (162.0) versus wideouts this year.

Sterling Shepard

Prop: 21.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 58.7
Prop:
21.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
58.7

A throwing game script is indicated by the Buccaneers being a -6-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Buccaneers to be the 6th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 61.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop. In this game, Sterling Shepard is predicted by the model to rank in the 87th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.8 targets. The Detroit Lions defense has been gouged for the 5th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (162.0) versus wideouts this year.

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Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards Props • Washington

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Jayden Daniels
J. Daniels
quarterback QB • Washington
Prop
45.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
61.77
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This year, the poor Dallas Cowboys run defense has been gouged for a staggering 147.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 4th-worst in football. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's LB corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Jayden Daniels

Prop: 45.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 61.77
Prop:
45.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
61.77

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This year, the poor Dallas Cowboys run defense has been gouged for a staggering 147.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 4th-worst in football. As it relates to the linebackers' role in stopping the run, Dallas's LB corps has been lousy this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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Cam Ward Rushing Yards Props • Tennessee

New England NE @ Tennessee TEN
Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
7.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
15.05
Best Odds

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Cam Ward

Prop: 7.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 15.05
Prop:
7.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
15.05

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Jacksonville JAC
Matthew Stafford
M. Stafford
quarterback QB • L.A. Rams
Prop
253.5
Passing Yards
Projection
217.25
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Rams being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed a feeble 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-best rate in the league. The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Matthew Stafford

Prop: 253.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 217.25
Prop:
253.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
217.25

A running game script is implied by the Rams being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year. This year, the strong Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed a feeble 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 4th-best rate in the league. The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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Deebo Samuel Receiving Yards Props • Washington

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Deebo Samuel
D. Samuel
wide receiver WR • Washington
Prop
59.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
79.9
Best Odds
Prop
59.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
79.9
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. In this contest, Deebo Samuel Sr. is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.5 targets.

Deebo Samuel

Prop: 59.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 79.9
Prop:
59.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
79.9

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. In this contest, Deebo Samuel Sr. is anticipated by the projections to slot into the 94th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.5 targets.

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Caleb Williams Rushing Yards Props • Chicago

New Orleans NO @ Chicago CHI
Caleb Williams
C. Williams
quarterback QB • Chicago
Prop
22.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
33.68
Best Odds

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan. The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 140.8 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The forecast calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New Orleans's group of DTs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the worst in the league. in the league.

Caleb Williams

Prop: 22.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 33.68
Prop:
22.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
33.68

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual game plan. The leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 140.8 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. The forecast calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, New Orleans's group of DTs has been atrocious this year, ranking as the worst in the league. in the league.

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Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

Carolina CAR @ New York NYJ
Josh Reynolds
J. Reynolds
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Jets
Prop
27.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
41.57
Best Odds

The projections expect Josh Reynolds to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense in this game (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played). When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

Josh Reynolds

Prop: 27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 41.57
Prop:
27.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
41.57

The projections expect Josh Reynolds to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense in this game (20.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (12.0% in games he has played). When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

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Chris Moore Receiving Yards Props • Washington

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Chris Moore
C. Moore
wide receiver WR • Washington
Prop
34.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
58.55
Best Odds

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. The model projects Chris Moore to garner 6.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Chris Moore

Prop: 34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 58.55
Prop:
34.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
58.55

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. The model projects Chris Moore to garner 6.5 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Seattle SEA
Nick Chubb
N. Chubb
running back RB • Houston
Prop
35.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
49.98
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. With an impressive tally of 41.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (75th percentile), Nick Chubb stands among the leading running backs in the league this year. Nick Chubb's ground effectiveness has improved this season, averaging 4.26 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.21 rate last season.

Nick Chubb

Prop: 35.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 49.98
Prop:
35.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
49.98

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. With an impressive tally of 41.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (75th percentile), Nick Chubb stands among the leading running backs in the league this year. Nick Chubb's ground effectiveness has improved this season, averaging 4.26 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.21 rate last season.

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Mac Jones Rushing Yards Props • San Francisco

Atlanta ATL @ San Francisco SF
Mac Jones
M. Jones
quarterback QB • San Francisco
Prop
5.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
16.1
Best Odds

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the 49ers are anticipated by the predictive model to run 66.9 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week. The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.2 plays per game.

Mac Jones

Prop: 5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 16.1
Prop:
5.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
16.1

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the 49ers are anticipated by the predictive model to run 66.9 total plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week. The San Francisco 49ers have run the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.2 plays per game.

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George Pickens Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
George Pickens
G. Pickens
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
61.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
80.46
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. This week, George Pickens is expected by the projections to place in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.9 targets.

George Pickens

Prop: 61.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 80.46
Prop:
61.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
80.46

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. This week, George Pickens is expected by the projections to place in the 89th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.9 targets.

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Dillon Gabriel Rushing Yards Props • Cleveland

Miami MIA @ Cleveland CLE
Dillon Gabriel
D. Gabriel
quarterback QB • Cleveland
Prop
4.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
12.77
Best Odds

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to run on 47.1% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.89 seconds per play. The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins run defense has conceded a massive 173.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the worst in football. The Miami defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

Dillon Gabriel

Prop: 4.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 12.77
Prop:
4.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
12.77

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Browns to run on 47.1% of their chances: the 4th-highest rate on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.89 seconds per play. The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness. This year, the anemic Miami Dolphins run defense has conceded a massive 173.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the worst in football. The Miami defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst DE corps in football this year in regard to defending the run.

All Matchup props

Davante Adams Receiving Yards Props • L.A. Rams

Los Angeles LA @ Jacksonville JAC
Davante Adams
D. Adams
wide receiver WR • L.A. Rams
Prop
85.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
61.13
Best Odds

A running game script is implied by the Rams being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year. Davante Adams's 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a significant drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 79.0 rate. Davante Adams's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 63.1% to 48.5%. Davante Adams's talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.41 figure last season.

Davante Adams

Prop: 85.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 61.13
Prop:
85.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
61.13

A running game script is implied by the Rams being a 3-point favorite in this week's game. When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Rams ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year. Davante Adams's 58.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season illustrates a significant drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 79.0 rate. Davante Adams's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% decreasing from 63.1% to 48.5%. Davante Adams's talent in grinding out extra yardage have tailed off this season, compiling a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.41 figure last season.

All Matchup props

Carson Wentz Rushing Yards Props • Minnesota

Philadelphia PHI @ Minnesota MIN
Carson Wentz
C. Wentz
quarterback QB • Minnesota
Prop
8.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
15.67
Best Odds

Carson Wentz has been much more involved in his offense's ground game this season (10.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (0.0%). This year, the feeble Philadelphia Eagles run defense has surrendered a monstrous 138.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst in the NFL.

Carson Wentz

Prop: 8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 15.67
Prop:
8.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
15.67

Carson Wentz has been much more involved in his offense's ground game this season (10.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (0.0%). This year, the feeble Philadelphia Eagles run defense has surrendered a monstrous 138.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 8th-worst in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Spencer Rattler Passing Yards Props • New Orleans

New Orleans NO @ Chicago CHI
Spencer Rattler
S. Rattler
quarterback QB • New Orleans
Prop
206.5
Passing Yards
Projection
182.26
Best Odds

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week. The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Spencer Rattler

Prop: 206.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 182.26
Prop:
206.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
182.26

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 54.2% of their downs: the 7th-lowest clip on the slate this week. The weather report calls for 21-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bears defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Drake Maye Rushing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ Tennessee TEN
Drake Maye
D. Maye
quarterback QB • New England
Prop
22.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
32.13
Best Odds

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. This year, the weak Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a staggering 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 5th-most in the NFL. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Tennessee's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Drake Maye

Prop: 22.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 32.13
Prop:
22.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
32.13

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. This year, the weak Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a staggering 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 5th-most in the NFL. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Tennessee's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Sam Darnold Rushing Yards Props • Seattle

Houston HOU @ Seattle SEA
Sam Darnold
S. Darnold
quarterback QB • Seattle
Prop
3.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
9.44
Best Odds

With a 3-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on running than their standard game plan. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to run on 45.8% of their downs: the 7th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 128.9 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

Sam Darnold

Prop: 3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 9.44
Prop:
3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
9.44

With a 3-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on running than their standard game plan. Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to run on 45.8% of their downs: the 7th-greatest clip on the slate this week. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 128.9 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

All Matchup props

Woody Marks Rushing Yards Props • Houston

Houston HOU @ Seattle SEA
Woody Marks
W. Marks
running back RB • Houston
Prop
27.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
40.03
Best Odds

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Woody Marks

Prop: 27.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 40.03
Prop:
27.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
40.03

Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

All Matchup props

Cade Otton Receiving Yards Props • Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay TB @ Detroit DET
Cade Otton
C. Otton
tight end TE • Tampa Bay
Prop
41.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
31.36
Best Odds
Prop
41.5 Receiving Yards
Projection
31.36
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by the projection model to call only 61.2 offensive plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week. Cade Otton has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this season (11.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.0%). After accruing 35.0 air yards per game last year, Cade Otton has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 21.0 per game. Cade Otton's 27.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 44.0 mark. The Lions defense has surrendered the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 46.0) versus TEs this year.

Cade Otton

Prop: 41.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 31.36
Prop:
41.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
31.36

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are expected by the projection model to call only 61.2 offensive plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week. Cade Otton has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this season (11.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (19.0%). After accruing 35.0 air yards per game last year, Cade Otton has seen a big downtick this year, now sitting at 21.0 per game. Cade Otton's 27.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year reflects a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 44.0 mark. The Lions defense has surrendered the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 46.0) versus TEs this year.

All Matchup props

Marvin Harrison Jr. Receiving Yards Props • Arizona

Green Bay GB @ Arizona ARI
Marvin Harrison Jr.
M. Harrison Jr.
wide receiver WR • Arizona
Prop
51.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
63.9
Best Odds

The Cardinals may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett. A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -6.5-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The 10th-most plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: most in the league.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Prop: 51.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 63.9
Prop:
51.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
63.9

The Cardinals may pass less in this week's game (and call more rushes) given that they be forced to start backup QB Jacoby Brissett. A throwing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -6.5-point underdog this week. Our trusted projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. The 10th-most plays in the league have been run by the Arizona Cardinals this year (a colossal 58.5 per game on average). Opposing offenses have averaged 43.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: most in the league.

All Matchup props

Cole Kmet Receiving Yards Props • Chicago

New Orleans NO @ Chicago CHI
Cole Kmet
C. Kmet
tight end TE • Chicago
Prop
9.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
16.88
Best Odds

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 140.8 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. Cole Kmet has posted far more air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game). Cole Kmet's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.0. In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year. This year, the porous Saints defense has conceded the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a whopping 8.06 yards.

Cole Kmet

Prop: 9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 16.88
Prop:
9.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
16.88

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 140.8 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week. Cole Kmet has posted far more air yards this year (42.0 per game) than he did last year (21.0 per game). Cole Kmet's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.0. In regards to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Bears ranks as the 6th-best in the league this year. This year, the porous Saints defense has conceded the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing tight ends: a whopping 8.06 yards.

All Matchup props

A.J. Brown Receiving Yards Props • Philadelphia

Philadelphia PHI @ Minnesota MIN
A.J. Brown
A. Brown
wide receiver WR • Philadelphia
Prop
59.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
72.96
Best Odds

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this game, A.J. Brown is predicted by the model to place in the 94th percentile among WRs with 8.9 targets. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.

A.J. Brown

Prop: 59.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 72.96
Prop:
59.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
72.96

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this game, A.J. Brown is predicted by the model to place in the 94th percentile among WRs with 8.9 targets. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 9th-best in football this year.

All Matchup props

Trevor Lawrence Passing Yards Props • Jacksonville

Los Angeles LA @ Jacksonville JAC
Trevor Lawrence
T. Lawrence
quarterback QB • Jacksonville
Prop
231.5
Passing Yards
Projection
206.61
Best Odds

Trevor Lawrence profiles as one of the least on-target QBs in the league this year with a 60.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 15th percentile. This year, the stout Rams defense has given up the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a puny 7.2 yards. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

Trevor Lawrence

Prop: 231.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 206.61
Prop:
231.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
206.61

Trevor Lawrence profiles as one of the least on-target QBs in the league this year with a 60.5% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 15th percentile. This year, the stout Rams defense has given up the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing squads: a puny 7.2 yards. As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's collection of LBs has been fantastic this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

All Matchup props

Dak Prescott Rushing Yards Props • Dallas

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Dak Prescott
D. Prescott
quarterback QB • Dallas
Prop
3.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
8.73
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). Dak Prescott's rushing efficiency has gotten better this year, averaging 5.41 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 4.48 mark last year.

Dak Prescott

Prop: 3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 8.73
Prop:
3.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
8.73

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). Dak Prescott's rushing efficiency has gotten better this year, averaging 5.41 adjusted yards-per-carry vs just 4.48 mark last year.

All Matchup props

Jerry Jeudy Receiving Yards Props • Cleveland

Miami MIA @ Cleveland CLE
Jerry Jeudy
J. Jeudy
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Prop
35.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
45.99
Best Odds

The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.89 seconds per play. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 92.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among WRs. This week, Jerry Jeudy is projected by the projection model to land in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.0 targets. Jerry Jeudy has put up a colossal 98.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among wide receivers. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-worst rate in football.

Jerry Jeudy

Prop: 35.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 45.99
Prop:
35.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
45.99

The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.89 seconds per play. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 92.1% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among WRs. This week, Jerry Jeudy is projected by the projection model to land in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.0 targets. Jerry Jeudy has put up a colossal 98.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among wide receivers. This year, the poor Dolphins pass defense has given up a staggering 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-worst rate in football.

All Matchup props

Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards Props • New Orleans

New Orleans NO @ Chicago CHI
Juwan Johnson
J. Johnson
tight end TE • New Orleans
Prop
25.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
34.52
Best Odds

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 140.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. The New Orleans Saints have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. Juwan Johnson's 85.1% Route% this season shows a meaningful growth in his passing game usage over last season's 66.6% rate. In this week's game, Juwan Johnson is expected by the projection model to slot into the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.0 targets.

Juwan Johnson

Prop: 25.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 34.52
Prop:
25.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
34.52

At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Saints are underdogs in this week's game, indicating more of a reliance on passing than their normal approach. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 140.8 total plays run: the most out of all the games this week. The New Orleans Saints have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game. Juwan Johnson's 85.1% Route% this season shows a meaningful growth in his passing game usage over last season's 66.6% rate. In this week's game, Juwan Johnson is expected by the projection model to slot into the 87th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.0 targets.

All Matchup props

Drake Maye Passing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ Tennessee TEN
Drake Maye
D. Maye
quarterback QB • New England
Prop
233.5
Passing Yards
Projection
210.62
Best Odds

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to pass on 51.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.93 seconds per play. The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 4th-best group of DEs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

Drake Maye

Prop: 233.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 210.62
Prop:
233.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
210.62

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to pass on 51.8% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week. Our trusted projections expect the Patriots to be the 8th-slowest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.93 seconds per play. The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 4th-best group of DEs in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.

All Matchup props

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Props • Green Bay

Green Bay GB @ Arizona ARI
Josh Jacobs
J. Jacobs
running back RB • Green Bay
Prop
19.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
27.62
Best Odds

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (41.2 per game) this year. This week, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the projections to slot into the 90th percentile among RBs with 4.4 targets. Josh Jacobs's 19.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 12.8. Josh Jacobs's 28.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a remarkable boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 19.0 figure.

Josh Jacobs

Prop: 19.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 27.62
Prop:
19.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
27.62

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Cardinals defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (41.2 per game) this year. This week, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the projections to slot into the 90th percentile among RBs with 4.4 targets. Josh Jacobs's 19.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 12.8. Josh Jacobs's 28.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season represents a remarkable boost in his pass-catching skills over last season's 19.0 figure.

All Matchup props

Jacory Croskey-Merritt Receiving Yards Props • Washington

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
J. Croskey-Merritt
running back RB • Washington
Prop
11.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
17.67
Best Odds

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (58.0) vs. running backs this year.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Prop: 11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 17.67
Prop:
11.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
17.67

The projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 63.4% pass rate. Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. The Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered the most adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (58.0) vs. running backs this year.

All Matchup props

Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Props • Tennessee

New England NE @ Tennessee TEN
Tony Pollard
T. Pollard
running back RB • Tennessee
Prop
45.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
56.69
Best Odds

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. The predictive model expects Tony Pollard to accumulate 14.3 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Tony Pollard

Prop: 45.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 56.69
Prop:
45.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
56.69

Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume. The predictive model expects Tony Pollard to accumulate 14.3 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs. The New England Patriots defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

All Matchup props

Cam Ward Passing Yards Props • Tennessee

New England NE @ Tennessee TEN
Cam Ward
C. Ward
quarterback QB • Tennessee
Prop
198.5
Passing Yards
Projection
178.37
Best Odds

The projections expect the Titans to call the 6th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.

Cam Ward

Prop: 198.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 178.37
Prop:
198.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
178.37

The projections expect the Titans to call the 6th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being called for in this game) usually lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.

All Matchup props

Michael Penix Jr. Rushing Yards Props • Atlanta

Atlanta ATL @ San Francisco SF
Michael Penix Jr.
M. Penix Jr.
quarterback QB • Atlanta
Prop
4.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
10.57
Best Odds

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Atlanta Falcons this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).

Michael Penix Jr.

Prop: 4.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 10.57
Prop:
4.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
10.57

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to have 131.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-most on the slate this week. The 3rd-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Atlanta Falcons this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).

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Geno Smith Rushing Yards Props • Las Vegas

Las Vegas LV @ Kansas City KC
Geno Smith
G. Smith
quarterback QB • Las Vegas
Prop
10.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
16.02
Best Odds

The Chiefs defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 4.77 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Kansas City's collection of DTs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

Geno Smith

Prop: 10.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 16.02
Prop:
10.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
16.02

The Chiefs defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 4.77 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Kansas City's collection of DTs has been dreadful this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.

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Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Props • New England

New England NE @ Tennessee TEN
Rhamondre Stevenson
R. Stevenson
running back RB • New England
Prop
43.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
54.2
Best Odds

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. This year, the weak Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a staggering 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 5th-most in the NFL. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Tennessee's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Rhamondre Stevenson

Prop: 43.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 54.2
Prop:
43.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
54.2

With a 7-point advantage, the Patriots are a huge favorite in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency. This year, the weak Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a staggering 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing teams: the 5th-most in the NFL. When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Tennessee's unit has been awful this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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Hunter Long Receiving Yards Props • Jacksonville

Los Angeles LA @ Jacksonville JAC
Hunter Long
H. Long
tight end TE • Jacksonville
Prop
15.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
22.05
Best Odds

A passing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a -3-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in football.

Hunter Long

Prop: 15.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 22.05
Prop:
15.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
22.05

A passing game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a -3-point underdog this week. The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.2% pass rate. The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Jaguars have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 59.3 plays per game. Opposing teams have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 10th-most in football.

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Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Props • Dallas

Washington WAS @ Dallas DAL
Javonte Williams
J. Williams
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
13.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
20.21
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Washington Commanders defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (46.0) versus RBs this year.

Javonte Williams

Prop: 13.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 20.21
Prop:
13.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
20.21

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cowboys to pass on 61.7% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The 9th-most plays in the league have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a whopping 59.0 per game on average). This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Washington Commanders defense has been torched for the 4th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (46.0) versus RBs this year.

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Justin Fields Passing Yards Props • N.Y. Jets

Carolina CAR @ New York NYJ
Justin Fields
J. Fields
quarterback QB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
165.5
Passing Yards
Projection
187.76
Best Odds

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

Justin Fields

Prop: 165.5 Passing Yards
Projection: 187.76
Prop:
165.5 Passing Yards
Projection:
187.76

When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the league.

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Bo Nix Rushing Yards Props • Denver

New York NYG @ Denver DEN
Bo Nix
B. Nix
quarterback QB • Denver
Prop
18.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
25.64
Best Odds

With a 7-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on running than their typical game plan. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 58.5 plays per game. The Giants defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 5.26 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

Bo Nix

Prop: 18.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 25.64
Prop:
18.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
25.64

With a 7-point advantage, the Broncos are a massive favorite in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on running than their typical game plan. Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.2 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 58.5 plays per game. The Giants defense has produced the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding 5.26 adjusted yards-per-carry. As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's collection of safeties has been awful this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

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Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards Props • Indianapolis

Indianapolis IND @ Los Angeles LAC
Jonathan Taylor
J. Taylor
running back RB • Indianapolis
Prop
90.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
77.31
Best Odds

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week. The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's DT corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor

Prop: 90.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 77.31
Prop:
90.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
77.31

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-fewest out of all the games this week. The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Los Angeles's DT corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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Kenneth Walker III Receiving Yards Props • Seattle

Houston HOU @ Seattle SEA
Kenneth Walker III
K. Walker III
running back RB • Seattle
Prop
6.5
Receiving Yards
Projection
11.33
Best Odds

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 128.9 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Houston's collection of safeties has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.

Kenneth Walker III

Prop: 6.5 Receiving Yards
Projection: 11.33
Prop:
6.5 Receiving Yards
Projection:
11.33

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see 128.9 total plays called: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week. Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually cause increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume. When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Houston's collection of safeties has been dreadful this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the league.

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Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards Props • Kansas City

Las Vegas LV @ Kansas City KC
Patrick Mahomes
P. Mahomes
quarterback QB • Kansas City
Prop
20.5
Rushing Yards
Projection
27.51
Best Odds

The Chiefs are a heavy 11.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 5.2 carries per game this year, one of the biggest rates in the NFL among quarterbacks (88th percentile). Patrick Mahomes has run for many more yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

Patrick Mahomes

Prop: 20.5 Rushing Yards
Projection: 27.51
Prop:
20.5 Rushing Yards
Projection:
27.51

The Chiefs are a heavy 11.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 5.2 carries per game this year, one of the biggest rates in the NFL among quarterbacks (88th percentile). Patrick Mahomes has run for many more yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

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How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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October 19

L.A. Rams LAat Jacksonville JAC 09:30 ET New England NEat Tennessee TEN 13:00 ET New Orleans NOat Chicago CHI 13:00 ET Miami MIAat Cleveland CLE 13:00 ET Carolina CARat N.Y. Jets NYJ 13:00 ET Philadelphia PHIat Minnesota MIN 13:00 ET Las Vegas LVat Kansas City KC 13:00 ET N.Y. Giants NYGat Denver DEN 16:05 ET Indianapolis INDat L.A. Chargers LAC 16:05 ET Washington WASat Dallas DAL 16:25 ET Green Bay GBat Arizona ARI 16:25 ET Atlanta ATLat San Francisco SF 20:20 ET

October 20

Tampa Bay TBat Detroit DET 19:00 ET Houston HOUat Seattle SEA 22:00 ET
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