The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.4% run rate. Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. Jared Goff's 6.19 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season shows a meaningful boost in his running skills over last season's 3.58 mark. This year, the imposing Dallas Cowboys run defense has allowed a meager 5.12 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-smallest rate in football.
The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. The model projects this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. Opposing QBs have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the league (270.0 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year. The Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency this year, giving up 9.38 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in the NFL. The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst CB corps in football this year in pass coverage.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.8 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year.
A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics. In this game, Tony Pollard is expected by the predictive model to position himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.7 rush attempts. Among all RBs, Tony Pollard grades out in the 94th percentile for carries this year, taking on 65.3% of the workload in his team's ground game.
The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.8 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year.
At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football (63.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Broncos. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board. The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed bad efficiency this year, allowing 7.91 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-most in the league.
The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league. Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (253.0) this year than he did last year (126.0).
This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Eagles, who are favored by 3 points. The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 5th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics. Our trusted projections expect Jalen Hurts to garner 9.5 rush attempts in this game, on balance: the most out of all quarterbacks. Our trusted projections expect Jalen Hurts to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack in this contest (31.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (24.0% in games he has played).
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). With an outstanding total of 6.6 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (86th percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 60.2% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Atlanta Falcons. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.9 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs. Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 248.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. In this week's contest, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets. Dallas Goedert has accrued a massive 39.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The Chargers linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.8 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. With an elite 97.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 10.1 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to WRs. This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded a massive 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league. The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown bad efficiency versus WRs this year, surrendering 9.63 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.8 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Denver's group of DEs has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football. With a terrific 8.06 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places among the most effective QBs in the NFL.
This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.0% of their chances: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.5. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year. As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 total plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. Jerry Jeudy has run a route on 90.9% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 88th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. This year, the anemic Titans pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 72.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the worst rate in football. The Titans pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, giving up 9.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in the league.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Steelers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the league against the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (73.0% Adjusted Completion%).
An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Broncos being an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. The Raiders defensive tackles project as the 4th-worst group of DTs in football this year with their run defense.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 total plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. The Titans safeties rank as the 9th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a running game script. The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.7% run rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 total plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. This year, the poor Tennessee Titans run defense has allowed a colossal 134.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 5th-most in the NFL.
The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
At the present time, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in football (63.5% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Broncos. Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Broncos are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Courtland Sutton to total 7.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile when it comes to WRs. The Denver Broncos offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure. After averaging 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has produced significantly less this season, currently averaging 43.0 per game. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 figure last season. The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.
In this contest, Khalil Shakir is forecasted by the model to land in the 79th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.0 targets. Khalil Shakir has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among wideouts. The Buffalo offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board. The Bengals linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 132.4 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 total plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football versus the Titans defense this year (74.5% Adjusted Completion%). The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Tennessee's group of CBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.
The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.8 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to call 67.1 plays on offense in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is forecasted by the model to land in the 100th percentile among RBs with 7.0 targets. Jahmyr Gibbs's 25.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 18.2.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 total plays in this game: the 3rd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. The Titans safeties rank as the 9th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to run on 47.6% of their plays: the 3rd-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to earn 20.2 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among RBs. Breece Hall has earned 57.5% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 87th percentile among RBs. With a stellar total of 60.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (84th percentile), Breece Hall rates among the best RBs in football this year. This year, the feeble Miami Dolphins run defense has yielded a massive 140.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.2 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.8 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.9 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. Kyren Williams has run a route on 56.0% of his offense's passing plays this year, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs. Our trusted projections expect Kyren Williams to accumulate 3.1 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.4% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.9 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The model projects Puka Nacua to accumulate 11.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. With an extraordinary 29.9% Target% (96th percentile) this year, Puka Nacua stands among the wide receivers with the most usage in the NFL.
When talking about air yards, Darren Waller grades out in the lofty 89th percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a remarkable 41.0 per game. Darren Waller's 29.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for tight ends. Darren Waller checks in as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 43.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile. Darren Waller ranks as one of the most efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging a remarkable 11.43 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 95th percentile. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.8 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year.
This year, the deficient Miami Dolphins defense has surrendered a massive 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the biggest rate in the league. This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has allowed the 6th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing offenses: a staggering 7.92 yards. The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
The Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.6%) vs. wideouts this year (69.6%). The Miami Dolphins linebackers rank as the 7th-worst group of LBs in football this year in defending receivers.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.8 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. In this week's contest, Rashee Rice is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.9 targets. Rashee Rice has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 28.0% this year, which ranks in the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. Isiah Pacheco's 50.2% Route% this season represents a meaningful boost in his passing game volume over last season's 33.5% figure. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.
Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to garner 11.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a more important option in his offense's air attack this season (36.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.3%). After totaling 73.0 air yards per game last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has gotten better this year, currently pacing 112.0 per game.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to earn 5.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends. T.J. Hockenson's 79.6% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates an impressive growth in his receiving ability over last season's 68.8% rate. This year, the weak Commanders defense has allowed a whopping 68.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-most in the NFL. The Commanders pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus TEs this year, allowing 9.70 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in football.
An extreme throwing game script is implied by the Raiders being an enormous -7.5-point underdog in this week's contest. The projections expect the Raiders to be the 4th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.8 offensive plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. The Denver Broncos defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (37.2 per game) this year.
The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. At a massive 30.26 seconds per play, the Baltimore Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in the league (context-neutralized) this year. The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 31.0 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year.
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