NFL Player Props and Best Projections

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. The leading projections forecast the Lions to be the 9th-most run-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.4% run rate. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. Jared Goff's 6.19 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this season shows a meaningful boost in his running skills over last season's 3.58 mark. This year, the imposing Dallas Cowboys run defense has allowed a meager 5.12 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 28th-smallest rate in football.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 131.7 total plays run: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week. This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (37.9 per game) this year. With a remarkable 69.8% Adjusted Completion% (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in football. With a terrific 8.06 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Jared Goff places among the most effective QBs in the NFL.

The Cardinals will be rolling with backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing. At a -8-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are heavy underdogs in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on throwing than their normal approach. The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals to be the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 67.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game versus the Rams defense this year: 10th-most in the league. Jacoby Brissett has passed for many more adjusted yards per game (253.0) this year than he did last year (126.0).

At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Falcons are huge underdogs in this week's game, suggesting much more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their usual game plan. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 60.2% of their opportunities: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 7th-quickest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Atlanta Falcons. The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may go down. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average). With an outstanding total of 6.6 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (86th percentile), C.J. Stroud has been as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the NFL this year.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 5th-highest frequency on the slate this week. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to have 133.5 total plays called: the most among all games this week. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency. The projections expect Matthew Stafford to attempt 39.6 passes in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most among all QBs. Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the leading passers in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 248.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure. After averaging 59.0 air yards per game last season, Travis Kelce has produced significantly less this season, currently averaging 43.0 per game. Travis Kelce's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this season, compiling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.53 figure last season. The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 41.0) vs. tight ends this year.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Lions. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played). The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board. Jahmyr Gibbs's receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating just 7.01 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.87 figure last year.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 60.2% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency on the slate this week. The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop. With an elite 97.6% Route% (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL. The model projects Justin Jefferson to notch 9.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, putting him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs. This year, the deficient Washington Commanders pass defense has conceded a massive 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 4th-biggest rate in the league.

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bears being a -6.5-point underdog in this game. At just 27.84 seconds per snap, the Bears offense checks in as the 5th-quickest paced in football (in a neutral context) this year. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Steelers to pass on 60.5% of their chances: the 7th-highest clip on the slate this week. Our trusted projections expect the Steelers offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.43 seconds per snap. This week, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by the projections to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 36.6. The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.

The model projects the Packers to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.0 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics. Josh Jacobs's 62.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season indicates an impressive regression in his running ability over last season's 80.0 mark.

The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a running game script. At the present time, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football (58.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Lions. Our trusted projections expect Jahmyr Gibbs to be a much smaller part of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.1% in games he has played). The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 130.9 plays on offense called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week. The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Houston Texans this year (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script. Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.3 passes in this contest, on balance: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks. The Buffalo Bills cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year. This year, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has given up a measly 194.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

This year, the formidable Packers defense has given up a measly 41.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 5th-fewest in football. The Packers pass defense has shown good efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 5.89 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in football. The Packers safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The predictive model expects the Chiefs as the 6th-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. Isiah Pacheco's 50.2% Route% this season represents a meaningful boost in his passing game volume over last season's 33.5% figure. When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Chiefs profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Browns are predicted by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week. The Cleveland Browns have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 58.8 plays per game. Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest level in football versus the Titans defense this year (74.5% Adjusted Completion%). The Titans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency this year, conceding 8.39 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Tennessee's group of CBs has been terrible this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. Nico Collins has accumulated significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (65.0) this season than he did last season (75.0). Nico Collins's 60.8% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a noteworthy decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 67.1% mark. Nico Collins's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, totaling just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 5.18 figure last season. The Chiefs pass defense has shown good efficiency against wide receivers this year, giving up 7.84 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in football.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. Dalton Schultz comes in as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league among TEs, averaging just 6.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 24th percentile. Dalton Schultz's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year shows a substantial decrease in his efficiency in space over last year's 3.9% rate. The Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Ravens are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script. Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.7% of their downs: the 4th-lowest rate on the slate this week. At a massive 30.26 seconds per play, the Baltimore Ravens offense comes in as the 3rd-most sluggish paced in the league (context-neutralized) this year. The model projects Lamar Jackson to throw 31.2 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 3rd-fewest out of all QBs. As it relates to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Ravens profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year.

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics. The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game. After accounting for 9.3% of his team's rush attempts last year, Patrick Mahomes has had a larger role in the run game this year, now making up 16.9%. Patrick Mahomes has rushed for a lot more yards per game (29.0) this year than he did last year (20.0).

This year, the porous Jets defense has been torched for the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a monstrous 7.90 yards. When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New York's group of LBs has been very bad this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 132.1 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 8th-worst in the NFL.

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script. The leading projections forecast the Bills as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 48.6% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics. In this week's contest, Josh Allen is expected by the projection model to notch the 2nd-most rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 7.5. With a stellar rate of 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (89th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best rushing quarterbacks in football this year. Opposing squads have run for the most adjusted yards in the league (156 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

The Cowboys are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script. The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.7 plays on offense run: the 3rd-most on the slate this week. The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Dallas Cowboys this year (a monstrous 58.8 per game on average). The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Our trusted projections expect the Seahawks to call the 5th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off. The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to garner 10.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a more important option in his offense's air attack this season (36.9% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (24.3%). Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 94.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season shows a significant gain in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 69.0 figure.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (just 31.2 per game) this year. This year, the formidable Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a puny 211.0 adjusted passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 9th-fewest in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Kansas City's collection of CBs has been tremendous this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

The Chiefs are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script. Travis Kelce's 18.4% Target Rate this year signifies a meaningful regression in his passing offense utilization over last year's 24.6% figure. Travis Kelce's receiving skills have worsened this season, compiling a measly 4.9 adjusted catches vs 6.1 last season. The Texans defensive ends project as the best collection of DEs in the NFL this year with their pass rush.