Miami @ Buffalo props

The model projects the Dolphins to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 54.5 plays per game. Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in the NFL. Durham Smythe's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.3% to 73.6%. As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Buffalo's group of safeties has been outstanding since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

The model projects the Bills as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. The projections expect Stefon Diggs to accumulate 11.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wideouts. Stefon Diggs's 72.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 95th percentile for wideouts. Stefon Diggs has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 7.0 receptions per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script. The projections expect the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Raheem Mostert has run a route on 51.3% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 89th percentile when it comes to RBs. The projections expect Raheem Mostert to garner 3.6 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among running backs. Raheem Mostert has been among the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 76th percentile.

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script. The projections expect the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The model projects Tyreek Hill to earn 11.6 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to WRs. Tyreek Hill's 87.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 76.0. Tyreek Hill has been among the top wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 7.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

The model projects the Bills as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. Dawson Knox has been among the top pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile. The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the NFL (80.3%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (80.3%).

The model projects the Bills as the 4th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing teams have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league. The predictive model expects James Cook to garner 3.7 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs. James Cook has been much more involved in his team's passing offense this season (11.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.2%). James Cook's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 63.5% to 83.4%.

Braxton Berrios has gone over 2.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.

Jaylen Waddle has gone over 4.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.

Dalton Kincaid has gone over 2.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.