Washington @ Philadelphia props

The Philadelphia Eagles will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context). The Eagles are an enormous 8.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football. When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Washington's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-best in the NFL.

The model projects the Eagles to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics. The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.8 plays per game. Dallas Goedert has run a route on 88.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends. The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to earn 5.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends. The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 10.5% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context). The Commanders are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script. The model projects the Washington Commanders as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics. The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.4 plays per game.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in football. The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board. Brian Robinson has been among the bottom RBs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging just 0.8 receptions per game while ranking in the 18th percentile among RBs. Brian Robinson has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in football when it comes to running backs, catching a mere 74.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 23rd percentile.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in football. Terry McLaurin has been used less as a potential target this year (80.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (92.8%). The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board. The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (57.8%) to wide receivers this year (57.8%).