Tennessee @ Indianapolis props

The Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league. The leading projections forecast DeAndre Hopkins to notch 9.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts. This year, the poor Colts pass defense has allowed a monstrous 71.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 6th-largest rate in football.

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context). The leading projections forecast the Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 56.4% pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics. The Colts have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.0 plays per game. The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off. In this week's game, Kylen Granson is predicted by the predictive model to land in the 78th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.6 targets. The Titans pass defense has been torched for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.4%) to tight ends since the start of last season (74.4%).

The Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Chigoziem Okonkwo has gone out for fewer passes this season (70.2% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (32.0%). Chigoziem Okonkwo's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 71.9% to 77.1%.

The Titans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context). This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness. Opposing QBs have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense this year: 8th-most in the league. Derrick Henry's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 84.3% to 100.0%. The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has been gouged for the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (83.6%) versus running backs since the start of last season (83.6%).

Alec Pierce has gone over 2.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.

Josh Downs has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

Chris Moore has gone over 2.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has gone over 2.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Tyjae Spears has gone over 2.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.