Baltimore @ Pittsburgh props

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the model to run 67.2 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league. The leading projections forecast Jaylen Warren to total 5.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to RBs. Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this year (17.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (6.3%).

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the model to run 67.2 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game against the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the league. In this week's game, George Pickens is forecasted by the model to land in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 9.0 targets. George Pickens's 60.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 44.8.

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized). Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. Mark Andrews has run a route on 92.2% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile among tight ends. This week, Mark Andrews is expected by the model to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.9 targets. With a stellar 4.8 adjusted catches per game (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews has been as one of the best pass-catching TEs in football.

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized). Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to call the 3rd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics. The model projects Zay Flowers to accrue 7.7 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs. Zay Flowers has been a key part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 29.0% this year, which ranks in the 94th percentile among wideouts. With an excellent 6.1 adjusted receptions per game (91st percentile) this year, Zay Flowers places as one of the leading pass-catching wide receivers in football.