Denver @ Kansas City props

At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. Rashee Rice has been among the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching a terrific 74.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 80th percentile among wide receivers. The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (79.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (79.5%). The Denver Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Broncos are predicted by the projection model to call only 62.0 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week. The Denver Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 51.8 plays per game. The Chiefs pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (59.5%) versus WRs this year (59.5%). The Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 7th-best group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

With a 10.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are overwhelmingly favored in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach. The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics. Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being predicted in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume. Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 7th-fewest in football. Travis Kelce's 64.4% Route Participation Rate this year indicates a a significant diminishment in his pass game utilization over last year's 83.1% rate.

The Broncos are a huge 10.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script. The leading projections forecast Javonte Williams to earn 2.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile when it comes to RBs. Javonte Williams has been among the best RB receiving threats this year, averaging a remarkable 2.7 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile. Javonte Williams's 82.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season marks a a noteable progression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 77.6% rate. The Chiefs pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (90.3%) versus RBs since the start of last season (90.3%).

At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league (69.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Kansas City Chiefs. Isiah Pacheco has been much more involved in his offense's air attack this season (7.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (2.2%). Isiah Pacheco's 2.1 adjusted receptions per game this year conveys a a meaningful progression in his receiving talent over last year's 0.8 mark. The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 9th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (88.6%) to RBs this year (88.6%). The Denver Broncos linebackers rank as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.