Washington @ New England props

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive strategy to tilt 13.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football. In this week's contest, Logan Thomas is expected by the projections to position himself in the 93rd percentile among tight ends with 6.1 targets. Logan Thomas's 4.0 adjusted catches per game this season represents a material boost in his pass-catching talent over last season's 2.9 mark.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the predictive model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week. Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL. In this contest, Hunter Henry is anticipated by the predictive model to finish in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs with 4.3 targets. Hunter Henry's 29.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 83rd percentile for TEs. As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Washington's LB corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league.

The projections expect the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

The predictive model expects the New England Patriots as the 6th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics. Rhamondre Stevenson's 12.1% Target% this season marks a remarkable diminishment in his air attack utilization over last season's 17.3% rate. In regards to pass-blocking (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive strategy to tilt 13.9% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays. Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest frequency among all teams this week. Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football. Brian Robinson's 31.7% Route% this season indicates a meaningful growth in his air attack volume over last season's 20.0% figure. Brian Robinson's 92.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteworthy improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 74.9% rate.